For this week’s bets, we were looking for a nice holiday variety plate. As is our wont to do, we pick an underdog on the moneyline, one game to hit the Over, one game to hit the Under, and two current playoff teams at home that aren’t getting much respect on the point-spread line.
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook
5
Take Seattle Seahawks and lay 4 points (-108) vs. Carolina Panthers
The Panthers are 0-5 on the road and have lost three games against the NFC West by totals of 10, 22 and 14 points. Four of the last five Seahawks wins have been by 10 points or more. There would appear to be a trend here – when Carolina goes on the road, it loses, and when Seattle wins, it wins big. That is a volatile combination to only be giving away four points and expecting the Panthers to keep it close with the “12th Man” making life miserable.
4
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. San Francisco 49ers: Take the UNDER 37.5 points (-111)
This is an extremely low O/U, but you have to look at what these offenses are doing. The Buccaneers offense has more than 22 points in a game just one all season and are averaging 18 points a game scored and allowed – an average of 36 points a game. Brock Purdy replaced Jimmy Garoppolo last week for the 49ers and averaged 5.7 yards per pass attempt. San Francisco has allowed less than 16 points a game on defense. Unless there is a defensive or special teams score, this game will struggle to surpass this rock-bottom O/U number.
3
Take the Minnesota Vikings on the money line (+105) at Detroit Lions
I understand that the Vikings are a phantom 10-2, but they’re still 10-2. Only one other team can make that claim. Detroit has won four of its last five, but three of those wins have come against the Packers, Bears and Jaguars (combined record of 12-26). The Lions are 2-7 against teams with winning records, including a Week 3 loss at Minnesota. The Vikings have found ways to win, including against playoff contending Dolphins, Commanders, Bills, Patriots and Jets. Their only two losses have come to the Eagles and Cowboys, and Detroit isn’t in their league. Nine one-score wins out of 10 wins is unusual, but it isn’t a fluke.
2
Take Tennessee Titans and lay 3.5 points (-113) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
All eight of Jacksonville’s losses have been by four or more points (including totals of 10 and 26 points in their last two losses), and the Jaguars are 1-5 on the road. On the flip side, Tennessee’s last six wins have all been by four more points and five of those have been by seven or more. Jacksonville is an improving team, but in the last three meetings, Tennessee has won by 21, 18 and 20 points. The Titans create matchup problems that have consistently seen them dominate the Jaguars, and 3.5 points shouldn’t be a betting deterrent. It only bolsters the case that Trevor Lawrence (toe) has yet to practice. Get in now before the point goes higher.
1
Miami Dolphins vs. Los Angeles Chargers: Take the OVER 51.5 points (-107)
These are two of the most imbalanced offenses in the leagues. Miami averages 60 offensive plays a game – 22 runs and 38 pass drop-backs. The Chargers average 68 offensive snaps a game – 23 runs and 45 passes. Those numbers don’t take into account the quarterback taking off on a pass play that becomes a run. Both teams seem willing and able to ignore the run and pass early and often. Both offenses will look to push the ball down the field and the result is going to be points in bunches. This is a big number (27-24 is still under), but one of these teams is going to hit 30 … if not both.
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