With the final major bye week of the season (six teams) upon us, the Week 13 picks cover a lot of ground. We take Under on the lowest point on the board, Over in primetime, a division rival winning on the moneyline at home, and two AFC West teams beating up on storied franchises on the road.
Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook
5
Take Tennessee Titans on the moneyline (+100) vs. Indianapolis Colts
The Colts have won three straight, but those wins have come against the Carolina Panthers, New England Patriots and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Titans are a different team at home. On the road, the Titans have lost all six games. At home, they’re 4-1 with the only loss being to the Baltimore Ravens. It is far from a given that the Titans will end the Colts’ winning streak, but the key will be Derrick Henry. In his last six home games against the Colts, he has rushed 127 times for 650 yards. His workload has only increased with time. In the last two home meetings, he has rushed 58 times for 241 yards. If he has an “average game,” the Titans win.
4
Atlanta Falcons at New York Jets UNDER 34 points (-110)
This number is incredibly low – about as low as NFL numbers get. The Jets have a good defense but haven’t scored more than 13 points in their last five games and have averaged 10. The Falcons haven’t played a cold weather game yet and that will require some acclimation. Both teams will be looking to sustain long drives, and there will be plenty of punts in this game. All that is required is to have more field goals than touchdowns to stay Under. This could be a 16-12 or 13-10 type game.
3
Cincinnati Bengals at Jacksonville Jaguars OVER 39 points (-110)
The Bengals have struggled to score points when Joe Burrow was hurt or out, but they have enough talented skill-position players to do their part to hit the Over. In a worst-case scenario for the Bengals, the Jags are capable of taking care of 30 points on their own if everything falls right in a rare primetime game in Duval. Primetime games have been low-scoring this year, but you have one team that needs to win to keep any playoff hopes alive and another looking to make a statement in the AFC. They’re going deep in the playbook in this one.
2
Take Los Angeles Chargers and lay 5.5 points (-110) at New England Patriots
This isn’t a bet made due to faith in the Chargers. Five of their seven losses have been by three points or less, and they had the lead late in most of them. However, this is an indictment of the Patriots. New England has scored 17 points or fewer in nine of its last 10 games and has managed just 13 points in its last two. Bill Belichick doesn’t tank in the standard sense, but it’s really starting to look that way. How many games can Mac Jones get benched? The Patriots’ last two losses have been against the Indianapolis Colts and New York Giants. The Chargers – with all their coaching flaws – are more than capable of putting 20 or more points on the board. The Patriots don’t have an answer to 20 points.
1
Take Kansas City Chiefs and lay 6 points (-110) at Green Bay Packers
NBC is certain to invoke footage of Super Bowl I, but the Chiefs are getting into playoff mode like they always do to force everyone else to try to beat them in their yard. The Packers are in the middle of their once-every-15-years rollover of the roster. The Chiefs have the fourth-ranked defense in the league, which has helped make up for offensive struggles Kansas City has had that are the most pronounced of the Patrick Mahomes era. The Chiefs may not put 35 points on the board, but their defense will do enough to make a touchdown lead hold up.
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