Welcome to Layup Lines, our basketball newsletter where we’ll prep you for a tip-off of tonight’s action, from what to watch to bets to make. Subscribe here to get it delivered to your inbox every afternoon.
38,390.
That’s where the NBA’s new career scoring record stands, now held by LeBron James, who passed Kareem Abdul-Jabbar’s previous mark Tuesday. And he’s far from finished.
James could very well push that number past 39,000 before the season is over. Before he closes the book on his legendary career, there’s a good chance it goes well beyond 40,000.
It’s a staggering amount of points scored in one career, made possible by a rare combination of talent, longevity and durability. Which is why there’s a good chance we’ll never live to see the record broken again.
Abdul-Jabbar had to play 20 years, averaging 78 games each season to set the original mark. James has also played 20 years, averaging 70 games throughout. He also got a head start coming out of high school. If he plans to play through his age-41 season like Abdul-Jabbar, he has another three years to add to his total.
That’s another reason this record will be so hard to break. Barring a much-needed change to the NBA pipeline, today’s kids can’t jump straight to the league from high school.
So, now that we’re all clear on how extremely unlikely it is for any active players to break the record, let’s talk about the active players who have the best shot.
To begin, the players with the actual best chances are the 19- and 20-year-olds early in their careers with time still on their side. Think Jalen Green, or even rookie Paolo Banchero. But even Banchero, who’s averaging 20 points, is a year older than James was as a rookie and would need to increase his scoring average by more than seven points to keep pace next year. Good luck with that.
As for more seasoned players, they’ll have an even harder time trying to track James because of how age and attrition work for most people not named LeBron James. But if we were to assume today’s players could keep their current scoring averages through their age-40 seasons while playing at least 70 games each year (which we shouldn’t, because none of them will) that gives us three players who would come close.
Giannis Antetokounmpo, 28 years old (32.2 PPG), 15,706 career points
Luka Doncic, 23 years old (33.4 PPG), 8,531 career points
Jayson Tatum, 24 years old (30.9 PPG), 9,218 career points
Doncic and Tatum’s paces leave the most room for their averages to drop or games to be missed over the years, but these are still best case scenarios that remain unlikely to happen. Most players simply don’t play that well into their 40s — if they even want to play that long. The only 40-year-old currently in the league is Udonis Haslem, who hasn’t played meaningful minutes since 2015.
So I hope you enjoyed what James did last night. It was truly historic. You’ll probably never see anything like it again.
— Prince J. Grimes
The Tip-Off
Some NBA goodness from around the USA TODAY Sports network.
As one of the biggest moments in sports history, all eyes were on the Lakers-Thunder game in anticipation of James breaking the record. And when he finally did it, towards the end of the third quarter, seemingly everyone in attendance at Crypto.com Arena sprung to their feet in applause.
Well, everyone except James’ own teammate Anthony Davis.
FTW’s Bryan Kalbrosky wrote about the bizarre scene:
“We don’t know the context of why Davis reacted the way that he did.
Could he have chosen a strange time to be upset he didn’t make the All-Star team? Is he upset that his name was recently mentioned in a trade rumor?
Perhaps his mind was on something else and he just got lost in the moment, briefly forgetting where he was for this slice of history. Maybe he had just received some bad news. He could have been beating himself up about not playing particularly well in a must-win game.
Davis didn’t look particularly healthy or impactful when he was on the court. Maybe there is something that happened that the public doesn’t know about yet. But the optics make this look like an awful lack of support from Davis.”
It’s probably nothing, but like BK said, the optics aren’t great.
One to Watch
(All odds via Tipico)
Philadelphia 76ers (+155) at Boston Celtics (-4.5, -105), O/U 224.5, 7:30 PM ET
The 76ers are visiting the Celtics for their last of three straight games on the road, and this should be the best one yet. The Sixers are just three games back of Boston for first place in the East, and no team in the conference has been as hot as them other than Milwaukee. Joel Embiid is questionable to play, but as long as he’s active, I think Philly covers as a 4.5-point road dog.
Shootaround
— NBA MVP Ladder, Vol. 6: Joel Embiid is on the move
— Kareem eloquently expressed why he didn’t mind LeBron breaking his record
— Paul Pierce had the weirdest tweets celebrating LeBron’s accomplishment
— Video caught LeBron’s sons erupting with pride when he broke the record
