One year isn’t enough time to reach a verdict on a rising NFL player’s career. It can tell us who’s probably going to be pretty good, however.
2022 was the backdrop to some breathtaking rookie campaigns. Ahmad “Sauce” Gardner took the defense that helped push Cincinnati to a College Football Playoff and immediately became a shutdown cornerback for the New York Jets. Aidan Hutchinson and Kayvon Thibodeaux each looked like the kind of edge rushers who’ll torment opposing tackles for the next decade. Kenny Pickett avoided catastrophe long enough for the Pittsburgh Steelers to win games around him.
We also had some high profile picks pepper an inauspicious start with moments of brilliance. Some vaunted Day 1 picks might not find their NFL gear until 2023, 2024 or later. Others might not get there at all.
It’s far too early to declare anyone a bust, but it’s never too soon for a theoretical re-draft. If we were re-selecting every player from the 2022 rookie class based on a combination of their NFL performance and their collegiate potential, what would that look like? Who’d climb up the draft board? Who’d be in danger of dropping out of the first round entirely?
Let’s take that first round the way it looked before the night-of trades that shaped its outcome and apply some hindsight. It’s great news for Texans and Lions — and less so for the now-dispersed draft hauls of the Jets, Seahawks and Patriots. Here’s how a year-after redraft shook out.
1
Jacksonville Jaguars: CB Sauce Gardner, Cincinnati
Original pick: DE Travon Walker, Georgia
The Jaguars opted for Travon Walker over Aidan Hutchinson at No. 1, perhaps fearing Hutchinson wouldn’t fit as well into the team’s 3-4 alignment as Walker. Rather than re-litigate that debate, we’ll opt for a guy who can excel in any defense, anywhere. Gardner was 2022’s defensive rookie of the year and a first-team All-Pro after allowing just a 62.7 passer rating and 5.2 yards per target in coverage.
Where was he actually drafted? Round 1, fourth overall
2
Detroit Lions: DE Aidan Hutchinson, Michigan
Original pick: DE Aidan Hutchinson, Michigan
Hutchinson’s 9.5 sacks led all rookies, even if his quarterback hit total (15) suggests he out-produced expectations. He was capable of adding value just about everywhere, shedding blocks to attack running backs and even recording three interceptions as a rookie. He’s capable of playing above and beyond the salary of his rookie contract, allowing the Lions to spend elsewhere as they build a contender.
Where was he actually drafted? Round 1, second overall
3
Houston Texans: CB Tariq Woolen, Texas-San Antonio
Original pick: CB Derek Stingley Jr., LSU
Stingley has the chops to turn into a perennial Pro Bowler. But Woolen has all the athletic traits of a shutdown corner and acceded to CB1 duties in Seattle faster than almost anyone expected. His six interceptions tied for the league lead and he allowed just a 48.7 passer rating in coverage for a Seahawks team that refused to rebuild in 2022.
Where was he actually drafted? Round 5, 153rd overall
4
New York Jets: OT Charles Cross, Mississippi State
Original pick: CB Sauce Gardner, Cincinnati
The Jets don’t get Gardner in this scenario, which is a bummer. They could target high-upside edge rushers in either Travon Walker or Kayvon Thibodeaux, but instead they get some much-needed Mekhi Becton insurance by taking 2022’s top rookie offensive lineman. Cross wouldn’t do much to help Zach Wilson last season (nothing could), but he’d be a boon for Aaron Rodgers in 2023 — especially if Becton can get back to full strength and fulfill his potential as a franchise tackle.
Where was he actually drafted? Round 1, ninth overall
5
New York Giants: DE Kayvon Thibodeaux, Oregon
Original pick: DE Kayvon Thibodeaux, Oregon
It’s not broken, so I won’t fix it. The Giants were happy with Thibodeaux’s growth over the season; he had three sacks and 10 quarterback hits over his final six games. He’s an emerging star at a position of need.
Where was he actually drafted? Round 1, fifth overall
6
Carolina Panthers: OT Tyler Smith, Tulsa
Original pick: OT Ikem Ekwonu, NC State
Ekwonu has tremendous upside, but his pro career started slowly. Smith didn’t have that problem. Injuries forced him from his presumptive spot at guard to left tackle, where he performed admirably and showed off the kind of power and versatility that make him an asset in any offense. His 71.4 PFF grade was higher than fellow first round picks Evan Neal or Ikem Ekwonu.
Where was he actually drafted? Round 1, 24th overall
7
New York Giants: OT Abe Lucas, Washington State
Original pick: OT Evan Neal, Alabama
Neal was supposed to be the most pro-ready offensive lineman in his class. Instead he struggled to acclimate to the NFL. Lucas, on the other hand, lingered to the third round before emerging as an immediate starter alongside Cross in Seattle. His ceiling may not be as high as Neal or Ekwonu, but he’s a stable presence who can help the Giants build from the momentum of their 2022 playoff appearance and keep Daniel Jones outracing expectations.
Where was he actually drafted? Round 3, 72nd overall
8
Atlanta Falcons: WR Garrett Wilson, Ohio State
Original pick: WR Drake London, USC
The Falcons could be tempted to pick Drake London and his absurd catch radius again, but since we’re over-valuing Year 1 performances Wilson gets the call. The Ohio State standout sprang for more than 1,100 yards despite catching passes from Zach Wilson, Mike White, Joe Flacco and Chris Streveler in 2022. He can play inside and out and provide a valuable game-breaking cantilever to Kyle Pitts downfield.
Where was he actually drafted? Round 1, 10th overall
9
Seattle Seahawks: DE Travon Walker, Georgia
Original pick: OT Charles Cross, Mississippi State
This may be dinging Walker’s stock too much; he was perfectly fine as a rookie, even if his numbers weren’t great. He’s a 275-pound monster with 4.5-second 40 speed who could provide lightning from the second level of the Seahawks defense. With both their tackle picks off the board (and a cornerback! 2022 was a really good draft for Pete Carroll!), Seattle rolls with the highest upside player on the board.
Where was he actually drafted? Round 1, first overall
10
New York Jets: WR Drake London, USC
Original pick: WR Garrett Wilson, Ohio State
London wasn’t the most productive receiver of his class, but he was also saddled with the Marcus Mariota/Desmond Ridder binary star of sadness in 2022. He still managed to put up 72 catches and 866 yards despite that run-heavy offense. He can get to just about any ball his quarterback lofts his way and would be a boon for the pending arrival of Aaron Rodgers.
Where was he actually drafted? Round 1, eighth overall
11
Washington Commanders: WR Chris Olave, Ohio State
Original pick: WR Chris Olave, Ohio State (made by the New Orleans Saints)
The Commanders remain in the market for a wideout. While Jahan Dotson came on strong late in the season — 20 percent of his catches resulted in touchdowns — Olave’s consistency gives him the edge here. The Ohio State product had at least three catches and 40 yards in every game played in 2022 despite underwhelming quarterback play and a rising tide of double-teams once it became clear the Saints had few other reliable options downfield.
Where was he actually drafted? Round 1, 11th overall
12
Minnesota Vikings: CB Derek Stingley Jr., LSU
Original pick: WR Jameson Williams, Alabama (made by the Detroit Lions)
Injuries stunted Stingley’s impact in his rookie year, but he has the physical capabilities to live up to his status as a top three pick. He didn’t allow a touchdown in nine games last fall, allowing just a 78.4 passer rating in coverage. He’s still working to reclaim the magic of his true freshman season at LSU (six interceptions), but if he gets there, look out. For now, he fills a position of extreme need in the Vikings secondary.
Where was he actually drafted? Round 1, third overall
13
Houston Texans: S Kyle Hamilton, Notre Dame
Original pick: DT Jordan Davis, Georgia (made by the Philadelphia Eagles)
Houston got a very good safety in the second round of the 2022 Draft, but there’s no chance Jalen Pitre would slide that far in a re-do. That leaves the secondary as a blanket need and Hamilton the best defensive back available. The Notre Dame star tested poorly at the combine and slid down draft boards, but his combination of size and instincts give him too much potential to pass up here — even if Pitre was the more productive player against the pass between the two.
Where was he actually drafted? Round 1, 14th overall
14
Baltimore Ravens: WR George Pickens, Georgia
Original pick: S Kyle Hamilton, Notre Dame
Injury concerns limited Pickens at UGA and helped him slide to the second round despite a run on wideout talent early in 2022. He emerged as the latest Steeler standout to emerge from the middle(ish) rounds and show out as a receiver. Pickens wasn’t merely a reliable playmaker (9.5 yards per target, tops among any rookie with at least 40 targets) but also a bruising run blocker who keeps ballcarriers upright downfield. He might not be the robust WR1 Baltimore needs, but this is a team in dire need of receiving talent and Pickens is the best available fit.
Where was he actually drafted? Round 2, 52nd overall
15
Philadelphia Eagles: S Jalen Pitre, Baylor
Original pick: OG Kenyon Green, Texas A&M (made by the Houston Texans)
Jordan Davis is available here, but an underwhelming rookie campaign creates the space for Pitre to make an impact with the Eagles defense. The ballhawk free safety would have been a luxury pick with CJ Gardner-Johnson on the roster, but he’d be instrumental to the team’s NFC title defense in 2023 in this theoretical situation. Pitre is a bit of a boom or bust safety, but his ability to create havoc over the top would help keep the Philly secondary stout.
Where was he actually drafted? Round 2, 37th overall
16
New Orleans Saints: WR Jahan Dotson, Penn State
Original pick: WR Jahan Dotson, Penn State (made by the Washington Commanders)
Dotson battled injury as a rookie but emerged as a potent counterpunch to Terry McLaurin in the passing game. He had 21 catches for 344 yards and three touchdowns over the final five games of the year, putting up an 1,100-yard, 10-touchdown season-long pace and averaging better than 16 yards per catch.
Where was he actually drafted? Round 1, 16th overall
17
Los Angeles Chargers: OG Zion Johnson, Boston College
Original pick: OG Zion Johnson, Boston College
Johnson was by far the most accomplished rookie guard of the 2022 season — even if that’s not saying much thanks to a disappointing class. He’s a bulldozing run blocker who isn’t as effective in pass protection but has the physical traits to get there. That didn’t help unlock Justin Herbert’s next level in an occasionally frustrating 2022, but could pay dividends in 2023 and beyond.
Where was he actually drafted? Round 1, 17th overall
18
Philadelphia Eagles: RB Breece Hall, Iowa State
Original pick: WR Treylon Burks, Arkansas (made by the Tennessee Titans)
There’s a chance the Eagles ignite a running back value debate by selecting Bijan Robinson on Day 1 this spring. Drafting Hall takes care of that one year earlier for a team loaded with weapons. Hall tore his ACL after seven games, but he was on pace for 1,900 total yards and 14 touchdowns across the five weeks he spent as the Jets’ primary tailback. That injury concern makes him a little tougher to place, but his versatility and explosiveness would create magic behind stellar blocking in Philadelphia.
Where was he actually drafted? Round 2, 36th overall
19
New Orleans Saints: EDGE George Karlaftis, Purdue
Original pick: OT Trevor Penning, Northern Iowa
Penning could develop into a plus-plus starter, but the Saints’ playoff window is now thanks to the hollowed-out shell of the NFC South around them. That makes Karlaftis, with six sacks and 11 quarterback hits across 64 percent of the Chiefs’ defensive snaps last fall, both an immediate force as well as an edge rusher who can grow into a larger role. Cameron Jordan remains ruinous but turns 34 years old in July. Marcus Davenport just left in free agency. Karlaftis would take a rotational spot in 2022 before a possible 2023 breakout.
Where was he actually drafted? Round 1, 30th overall
20
Pittsburgh Steelers: OT Braxton Jones, Southern Utah
Original pick: QB Kenny Pickett, Pittsburgh
Pickett wasn’t a revelation as a rookie, but he was fine — and the Steelers won the last five games he started and finished. That’s more a testament to Mike Tomlin than anything else, so instead Pittsburgh passes on a quarterback and reinforces its offensive line instead. Evan Neal would be extremely difficult to pass up here, but Jones outperformed expectations as a rookie nearly as hard as Neal underperformed. His 75.4 PFF grade was tops among all rookie tackles, even if the Bears’ pass protection was very much a mess in 2022.
Where was he actually drafted? Round 5, 168th overall
21
New England Patriots: OT Evan Neal, Alabama
Original pick: CB Trent McDuffie, Washington (made by the Kansas City Chiefs)
Bill Belichick loves Alabama guys and has a need at left tackle — though it wasn’t a pressing one in 2022. That means the Patriots could afford to give Neal a gap year after years of rock solid play with the Crimson Tide. That’s great, because Neal was decidedly a work in progress as a rookie.
Where was he actually drafted? Round 1, seventh overall
22
Green Bay Packers: WR Treylon Burks, Arkansas
Original pick: LB Quay Walker, Georgia
Walker was a productive linebacker, at least when he wasn’t getting ejected for shoving opposing team’s trainers. But Green Bay badly needed wideout help (still does) and Burks has some of the size and separation qualities that made Davante Adams such a monster in Wisconsin. Granted, he’d have to stay healthy just to approach an actual Adams comparison, but Burks has very real skills and the ability to make strong-handed catches away from his body in traffic.
Where was he actually drafted? Round 1, 18th overall
23
Arizona Cardinals: DT Jordan Davis, Georgia
Original pick: CB Kaiir Elam, Florida (made by the Buffalo Bills)
The Cardinals are a big ol’ mess and need to invest in the most talented players they can find, regardless of position. Davis, an athletic marvel at 340-plus pounds, can be a tone-setter up front in the Arizona defense. He’s capable of shooting gaps and bringing pressure or standing his ground and clogging running lanes. Injury and Philadelphia’s depth up front stunted his opportunities to do so in 2022, but he’s capable of big things if given the time.
Where was he actually drafted? Round 1, 13th overall
24
Dallas Cowboys: S Kerby Joseph, Illinois
Original pick: OT Tyler Smith, Tulsa
Dallas needs offensive line help, but there’s little to choose from at this point in the re-draft thanks to a weak crop of 2022 blockers. Instead, Joseph adds another ballhawk to a quarterback-destroying secondary. Joseph had four interceptions — three against Aaron Rodgers — and seven passes defensed in his final 10 games as a rookie. He can be a bit boom-or-bust, be he showed capacity for growth throughout the season.
Where was he actually drafted? Round 3, 97th overall
25
Buffalo Bills: CB Alontae Taylor, Tennessee
Original pick: C Tyler Linderbaum, Iowa (made by the Baltimore Ravens)
Taylor sharpened his skills in the SEC and brought that to the NFL, allowing just 48.5 percent of his targets to be caught in an excellent, but overlooked, rookie campaign. His 4.8 yards per target allowed was tops among any first year defensive back who quarterbacks threw at at least 10 times in 2022. Now he heads to Buffalo to make a powerful secondary even scarier.
Where was he actually drafted? Round 2, 49th overall
26
Tennessee Titans: WR Christian Watson, North Dakota State
Original pick: DE Jermaine Johnson II, Florida State (made by the New York Jets)
The Titans need playmakers, but pickings are slim after a run on wideouts. Jameson Williams could be the play, but after just one catch as a rookie returning from a torn ACL (a 41-yard touchdown) Watson gets the benefit of the doubt. He had 523 receiving yards and seven touchdowns over the final eight games of the 2022 season.
Where was he actually drafted? Round 2, 34th overall
27
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: LB Quay Walker, Georgia
Original pick: LB Devin Lloyd, Utah (made by the Jacksonville Jaguars)
Walker is a very good player capable of making completely inexcusable mistakes. He remains in the first round because we have the benefit of hindsight and know that Lavonte David is nearing the end of his run and, as of this spring, Devin White no longer wants to be a Buccaneer.
Tampa Bay has holes everywhere and is in best player available mode thanks to what could be an arduous rebuild. Walker fits the bill — though Kenny Pickett is under consideration for a team whose current QBs are Baker Mayfield and Kyle Trask.
Where was he actually drafted? Round 1, 22nd overall
28
Green Bay Packers: LB Devin Lloyd, Utah
Original pick: DT Devonte Wyatt, Georgia
The Packers badly need help against the run, which is where Walker came in handy. He’s off the board, but Utah standout Lloyd is a proper replacement who may have a higher ceiling as a pro. He fell off in the middle of the season, but finished strongly enough to prove he’s a capable NFL starter who can snuff out drives in coverage or as a lane-slicing tackler on the ground.
Where was he actually drafted? Round 1, 27th overall
29
Kansas City Chiefs: CB Marcus Jones, Houston
Original pick: OG Cole Strange, Chattanooga (made by the New England Patriots)
The most electric playmaker of the 2022 rookie class slid all the way to the Chiefs, and now Andy Reid gets to find a way to unleash him on the AFC. Jones was a first-team All-Pro punt returner but he contributed to all three phases of the Patriots’ game. He had a 75.4 passer rating allowed in coverage as a cornerback, caught four passes (on four targets) for 78 yards and a touchdown and averaged 12.5 yards per punt return. Now he gets to be Patrick Mahomes’ Swiss Army Knife on select plays while beefing up a needy secondary.
Where was he actually drafted? Round 3, 85th overall
30
Kansas City Chiefs: EDGE Arnold Ebiketie, Penn State
Original pick: DE George Karlaftis, Purdue
Without Karlaftis available, the Chiefs opt for the best remaining edge rusher on the board. That’s Ebiketie, whose 11 quarterback hits ranked tied for third among all rookies (along with Karlaftis and the No. 32 pick in this re-draft). His 15 pressures were fifth-best — all despite playing less than half the Falcons defensive snaps last season. He still needs to round his game out to be more than just a situational pass rusher, but he’s got the chops to be a double-digit sack threat in Kansas City.
Where was he actually drafted? Round 2, 38th overall
31
Cincinnati Bengals: CB Jack Jones, Arizona State
Original pick: S Daxton Hill, Michigan
Cincinnati gets a dynamite outside cornerback AND takes a quality Bill Belichick draft pick off the Patriots’ roster here. Jones allowed just a 64.8 passer rating in coverage to help New England overcome the loss of JC Jackson to free agency without too much of a problem.
Where was he actually drafted? Round 4, 121st overall
32
Detroit Lions: LB James Houston, Jackson State
Original pick: S Lewis Cine, Georgia (made by the Minnesota Vikings)
Houston’s numbers in 2022 are unsustainable, but my god are they pretty. He played just 140 defensive snaps and had eight sacks. Give him Aidan Hutchinson’s snap count (984) and that comes out to a 55-sack season-long pace. At 6-foot-1 and 225 pounds he’s not a traditional pass rusher, but he finds paydirt as a blitzer and has proven he can thrive in a rotational role for Dan Campbell. He’s a bet the Lions would make again — this time with a pick gleaned from the Matthew Stafford trade.
Where was he actually drafted? Round 6, 217th overall
