WASHINGTON — Get ready for a barrage of campaign ads — even more than usual.
Democrats and Republicans are setting a torrid fundraising pace more than one year out from the midterm elections, stockpiling record-breaking amounts of cash as control of the narrowly divided House and Senate hangs in the balance.
Between the tens of millions of dollars that candidates and groups are already collecting and the high stakes at play, political strategists and analysts are projecting that the level of spending on 2022 campaign ads will not only surpass every previous midterm race, but could even approach the last presidential election cycle.
“Both parties have the spigots turned on as much as you can turn them on,” said Steve Passwaiter, vice president of growth and strategy at the ad tracking firm Kantar/CMAG. “And given how close everything is, it suggests that’s what we’re in for.”
The midterm election environment still remains unsettled, as incumbents consider whether to run for re-election, party leaders recruit candidates and new congressional lines are drawn in the redistricting process. And donors and voters typically aren’t as tuned into politics in non-election years, especially heading into a midterm.
But that hasn’t prevented the Republicans and Democrats focused on House and Senate races from raking in cash at a higher rate than at this point in the 2018 and 2020 election cycles.
According to their latest financial reports, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, the National Republican Congressional Committee, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee and the National Republican Senatorial Committee each raised millions of dollars more in the third quarter of 2021 compared to the same period in 2019 and 2017.
The NRSC saw the biggest increase, nearly doubling its fundraising total from two years ago and nearly quadrupling it from four years ago.
Three of the four party committees have a much greater amount of campaign cash at their disposal before spending truly starts to ramp up in the election year. At $65 million, the NRCC had nearly three times as much in its bank account at the end of September compared to the same point in 2019 and nearly twice as much compared to 2017.
Similarly, the DCCC had nearly twice as much on hand compared to two years ago and more than twice as much compared to four years ago. The NRSC had roughly twice as much compared to each of the last two election cycles, while the DSCC experienced a slight dip from the last two election cycles.
Some individual candidates in highly contested races have also raised eye-popping amounts of money at this early stage. Sen. Raphael Warnock, D-Ga., led the way in the third quarter, raising $9.5 million and reporting $17.2 million in his campaign account. Sen. Mark Kelly, D-Ariz., raised $8.2 million and had $13 million on hand. Senate candidates do not usually reach those amounts until much deeper into the election cycle, if at all.
Sen. Tim Scott, R-S.C., raised the most money of any Senate Republican in the third quarter, collecting $8.4 million and reporting $18.8 million on hand. And one of Warnock’s potential Republican opponents, former football player Herschel Walker, is also off to a quick start. From the time he joined the race in August through the end of September, he brought in $3.7 million.
Recent fundraising levels have only bolstered predictions of a record-smashing election cycle for ad spending.
Kantar/CMAG released a report earlier this year projecting that $7.8 billion would be spent on TV, digital and radio ads during the 2022 midterm elections. By comparison, the firm found that $7.9 billion was spent during the 2020 presidential election cycle and $5.15 billion was spent during the 2018 midterm cycle.
AdImpact, another nonpartisan ad tracking firm, reported slightly different figures, which the companies attribute to methodological differences. But it reached a similar conclusion.
AdImpact found that $4 billion was spent on ads during the 2018 cycle and $9 billion was spent during the 2020 cycle. AdImpact also forecasts that 2022 ad spending levels will easily surpass the 2018 race and come close to matching the 2020 presidential campaign, projecting a total of $8.9 billion.
“The 2022 figure is impressive and a little surprising based on the conventional wisdom that, if held, would assume more subdued electoral activity this year,” AdImpact’s report said. “But so far this cycle, the data we’re seeing shows a major increase in spending activity over past cycles.”
WHAT’S BEHIND THE MONEY SURGE?
Strategists in both parties see several reasons for the uptick. Republicans credit much of their recent success to the emergence of the online fundraising platform WinRed, which has helped them close the gap with Democrats, who have long relied on a steady stream of small-dollar donations through ActBlue.
Conversely, Republicans used to hold an advantage with the wealthy donors who could contribute massive sums of money. Democrats, who once scorned the influence of mega-donors, have since embraced them, so both parties are now tapping into much larger fundraising pools.
But the biggest overriding factor is that unlike recent election cycles, control of both chambers of Congress are in play in 2022. In 2018, the main battle was for the House majority, while the Senate was primarily up for grabs in 2020, in addition to the White House. The Senate is currently divided evenly between the parties, while in the House, Democrats hold just eight more seats than Republicans.
“When control of both chambers is on a razor’s edge, the amount of fundraising and corresponding spending is going to ratchet up and early,” said Republican strategist Ken Spain, a former NRCC aide. “Given the stakes on both sides, it would not be surprising to see presidential-level spending in the midterms.”
Campaign veterans also say a hyper-polarized political climate is keeping the parties’ core supporters and donors engaged beyond just the final stretch of an election. In turn, the additional money that generates gives campaigns a greater ability to reach all corners of the electorate.
“The heat in our politics has been turned up year after year, both in rhetoric and dollars spent,” said Democratic strategist Cole Leiter, a former DCCC aide. “And the result of that is bigger, more sophisticated campaigns.”
Voters, particularly those living in battleground states and districts, are likely to be inundated with campaign ads soon.
“People who don’t want to watch political ads are going to have to pony up for ad-free subscriptions,” Passwaiter of Kantar/CMAG said. “There’s going to be a whole ton of advertising coming next year.”
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(McClatchy data reporter Ben Wieder contributed reporting.)
