The 2021 rise in U.S. births is likely a baby blip, not a boom

The U.S. birth rate went up in 2021. Here, a baby is seen in a hospital in McAllen, Texas in 2020. (Eric Gay/AP)

The U.S. birth rate has been trending downwards over the past 15 years — so the news that the number of births actually rose in 2021 is making headlines. But the change is likely to be more of a baby blip than a baby boom.

The gain was modest, with the National Center for Health Statistics announcing on Tuesday that the 1% rise in U.S. births in 2021 "was the first increase in births since 2014." But the agency added a caveat, noting that the U.S. birth rate fell to a record low in 2020, the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic.