Last summer, in an effort to be cute, I snuck a 13th team into my “12 teams that could realistically win the Super Bowl” post. That bonus team was … the Eagles. Thankfully, hedging my bets artfully has always been a strong suit. So was pretending that I thought the Eagles were really good all along. In reality, I thought they were much better than most people thought, which is a lot different than good enough to win the Super Bowl. Maybe, though, I am on to something with this 13th-team business. Listing almost half the teams in the NFL has a way of turning you into Nostradamus. (Well, most of the time.)
One extra club will make my list again this year out of convenience mostly, even though I think the field is far less open than it was a year ago. There are some very strong rosters right now, and I wonder whether they’ll all hover around the trade deadline and vacuum up the valuable players being shed by teams freefalling into position for Caleb Williams and Drake Maye. More than any other year, this could be a rich-get-richer kind of season, especially with the aggressive streaks exhibited by most of the general managers at the top of this list.
So, keep that in mind. Really, I feel like the list drops off after No. 5, then again after No. 9. The bonus team is there because I like the safety net. Unless, of course, it ends up reaching the Super Bowl again. If that’s the case, I knew it all along.
Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports (Prescott); Joseph Maiorana-USA TODAY Sports (Burrow); Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports (Rodgers)
1. 49ers
If Brock Purdy can play as well as he did a year ago, and the 49ers stay relatively healthy, I don’t know how a team with the best skill-position group, one of the best offensive lines, the best defensive line and the best linebackers in the NFL won’t heavily factor into this year’s postseason dance. San Francisco, as you may have heard me say, possesses a level of depth unseen by the rest of the league. This team can weather quite a bit of attrition this year and still be considered one of the toughest teams to beat in 2023.
2. Bengals
While the AFC North will be infinitely tougher to deal with this coming year, the Bengals are the class of the division. Their vulnerabilities—running back and a true, difference-making tight end—are nitpicky at best, especially when you possess the best wide receiving corps in the NFL and a quarterback who can extend plays just by virtue of his pocket movement skills. I wrote this about Joe Burrow before last season and believe it to be true now as well: Every year he is healthy, the Bengals should be considered a Super Bowl contender, which is a courtesy that gets extended only to the likes of Patrick Mahomes and, before him, Tom Brady.
3. Chiefs
I feel like there isn’t too much to say about the defending champions. As we saw with the best years of Brady in New England, sure, it’s difficult to repeat. But, when a standard of excellence is set by one of the greatest coaches and quarterbacks ever, it’s also harder to fall flat on one’s face. The Chiefs are getting younger on the edges defensively, and while they may struggle to close out some games early, they also have Patrick Mahomes. That helps.
4. Eagles
The Eagles are a complicated projection. So rarely does the loser of a Super Bowl return to the Big Game. I would imagine this especially true when a coaching staff is purged, losing both of its coordinators. Philadelphia did an incredible job of retooling while also leaving room for its most integral veteran players. It is the team’s faith in the likes of Jason Kelce, Lane Johnson, Brandon Graham and Fletcher Cox that supports my belief that Jalen Carter, Nakobe Dean, Jordan Davis and Nolan Smith can succeed at the NFL level and make the gap between Philadelphia’s best years seem shorter.
5. Bills
I view the Bills almost like a team that lost in the Super Bowl, even though they didn’t make it last year. The emotional weight of last season in totality had to be daunting, to say the least. From the weight of their expectations the moment the season started, to the horrifying moment in which they confronted the idea of losing a teammate to an on-field incident, I feel like that total exhaustion is comparable to a club that reached the biggest game of the year and came up short. Even so, I think this offense is going to continue to showcase its versatility and could take a big step this year in terms of how we perceive the operation around Josh Allen. Their running game, for one, which has never been as ineffective as people make it out to be, could end up being a major factor in 2023.
6. Cowboys
NFC teams have it easier, which is the main reason we find Dallas on this list. I disliked the Cowboys’ offseason. I admittedly bristled at their choice to replace Kellen Moore as offensive coordinator (with longtime NFL coordinator Brian Schottenheimer). They, as of the writing of this list, are playing hardball with Zack Martin, who may be the best individual performer on their roster. All that said, they have the quarterback, they have the defensive strength, they have a dominant pass rush and an aggressive, complementary secondary. I still view them as just a very comfortable playoff-worthy team that lacks the killer instinct to survive a crowded playoff field. But, each year a team can completely shed its past and personality.
7. Jets
I guess, right? If a team has the NFL’s best player in the secondary, a really good set of players up front, a future Hall of Fame quarterback and last year’s Offensive Rookie of the Year at wide receiver, it’s kind of impossible to leave it off the list, even if we have a hard time painting the mental picture. As I’ve written before, I think the Jets went through the deep-cleaning stage the franchise so desperately needed, so it’s not like an insatiable franchise just plugged in Aaron Rodgers. I think a soon-to-be-normal, routinely competitive franchise added Aaron Rodgers and if we make that small mental switch, it’s easier to see the Jets potentially surviving a daunting conference.
8. Ravens
It’s going to have to be a pretty bleak state of affairs for me not to include Baltimore on a list of potential Super Bowl winners, even if it’s now been more than a decade since the Ravens’ last trip to the title game. The marriage of new OC Todd Monken and Lamar Jackson could either propel Jackson into prolonged elite status, or the Ravens will, by midseason, be scrambling to install whatever familiar and friendly concepts leftover from the Greg Roman system can still serve them. But, because the first possibility—that Monken’s time at Georgia has him equipped with a solid arsenal and a good idea of how to utilize Jackson both as a runner and a space-eating spread quarterback—is a real one, we’ll side with the idea that an offense with no history is that much harder to prepare for.
Jayne Kamin-Oncea/USA TODAY Sports
9. Chargers
I do think there’s a chance the rubber meets the road in Los Angeles at some point. That said, like a Lions team we’ll discuss below, I feel like the Chargers’ defensive vulnerabilities are pronounced enough to scare me away. I was between the Chargers and Dolphins on this list, and I ended up going with L.A., due mostly to the stability under center and how a new offense may highlight the strengths of the team’s receiving corps better than the old one. Miami is going to have to reinvent itself through self-scouting alone.
10. Browns
As much as I have explored (partially out of catharsis) the darkest realm in which the Browns can sink to during the tenure of a brazenly unrepentant Deshaun Watson, they are also probably good enough to win the Super Bowl. This all depends, obviously, on Watson’s ability to play like he did a few years ago, even though the NFL has changed significantly since he last found sustained success. Still, Watson led some well-coached and talent-rich Texans teams to 11- and 10-win seasons, both of which were good enough to get Houston into the tournament. In the postseason, teams with a solid running game, a veteran offensive line and a closer at the defensive end position tend to perform well.
11. Lions
I don’t love the Lions as much as the rest of the NFL media cognoscenti, but I do think they’re incredibly well coached and they have an offense that can dictate the parameters of almost any game they’ll play in. Put more simply, teams are going to have to beat the Lions on the Lions’ terms. They are far less complete and far more vulnerable defensively than other true contending teams on this list, and I wonder how much of their doubling down of the run game (by drafting the versatile Jahmyr Gibbs) was an effort to keep possession and shield a defense that surrendered more than 450 yards of total offense four times a year ago.
12. Patriots
Like I wrote about the Titans, one could either view the Patriots’ pursuit of DeAndre Hopkins as one of desperation or as a move that suggests they are more confident in the roster than others may believe. The Patriots missed their opportunity to tear down the roster and are in a perpetual win-now mode, and I wonder whether the reunion with Bill O’Brien has sparked some vintage confidence in Foxborough. Again, maybe not. But what if this team grinds out 10 ugly wins this season and stumbles into the playoffs with Mac Jones playing as well as any quarterback rounding out his third season in the NFL (and with, unquestionably, his best quarterbacks coach)?
Bonus team: Rams
I don’t think it’s out of the realm of possibility that the Rams hit on some of their draft picks, then remind everyone that they still have Cooper Kupp, Matthew Stafford, Aaron Donald, Raheem Morris and Sean McVay all in the same building. This is obviously a mental retooling year for the brilliant head coach and his staff, but is anyone willing to passionately argue against the possibility that he can figure it all out again? Some coaches don’t have a good second act, but most of those coaches didn’t emerge in their 30s and completely bludgeon the smartest career minds in the sport. Also, Stafford, per everything I’m hearing, looks great. He’s moving well. In that way, the Rams are just one star cornerback away from being the Jets. And we all think, at least to some degree, the Jets are good enough to reach the Super Bowl if all goes well.
