We like to think of the holidays as a season of magic and wonder, but for plenty of people the “magic” feels less like twinkling lights and sleigh rides and more like, “Abracadabra — your money is gone!” Gifts, travel, food, decorations and all those “just one more thing” purchases can quickly turn the most wonderful time of the year into the most wallet-draining.
For You: The Living Wage a Family of 4 Needs in All 50 States
To see just how far Americans’ budgets might stretch this season, GOBankingRates’ sister company MoneyLion analyzed estimated holiday spending and discretionary budgets across all 50 states. The idea: find out where people are most likely to overspend, and where they somehow manage to stay on track.
To build the projections, MoneyLion started with PricewaterhouseCoopers’ 2025 Holiday Outlook, which puts the average American’s holiday spending at $1,522. That number was then adjusted for each state’s cost of living using data from the Missouri Economic Research and Information Center and compared to a standard monthly discretionary budget based on the 50/30/20 rule. The result is a snapshot of where holiday expenses are most (and least) likely to break the bank.
The States Most Likely To Break Their Holiday Budget
MoneyLion’s analysis found that Americans in 29 states are expected to overspend this holiday season, with populations in six states overshooting budgets by more than $200.
Here are the 10 states most likely to blow their holiday budgets:
- Kentucky — $306 over budget
- Louisiana — $296
- Montana — $273
- West Virginia — $267
- Arkansas — $253
- Mississippi — $234
- Alabama — $228
- South Carolina — $221
- Oklahoma — $215
- Missouri — $210
These states share a similar theme: holiday expenses have risen along with everything else, while post-tax incomes haven’t kept pace. It makes it tough for people to fully cover seasonal spending without dipping into savings or taking on extra debt.
Want to see the full breakdown for all 50 states? Click here for the full analysis on MoneyLion.
The States That Stay on Budget (Somehow)
On the other end of the spectrum, 21 states actually have money left over in their discretionary budgets after holiday spending. A handful even end December with more than $200 to spare, which feels like spotting a unicorn in today’s economy.
Here are the 10 states best positioned to stay within budget:
- New Jersey — $307 left over
- Utah — $281
- New Hampshire — $245
- Washington — $225
- Colorado — $201
- Nevada — $237
- Maryland — $137
- Virginia — $154
- South Dakota — $111
- Massachusetts — $107
Higher post-tax incomes give these households more breathing room, so even with generous holiday spending, they’re not tapping out their discretionary budgets.
Read Next: Here’s the Line Between Middle Class and Upper-Middle Class in Every State
How To Stay on Track if You’re Worried About Your Budget
If your state ended up on the “likely to overspend” list, don’t worry — you’re not doomed to blow your budget. A few small moves now can give you some real breathing room.
1. Start With an Actually Realistic Budget
Most people set holiday budgets that are more aspirational than practical. Instead of aiming for a “perfect” budget, sit down with your bank accounts and calculate what you can spend comfortably without dipping into savings. Scaling back a little is better than ending the season in financial stress.
2. Use a Separate Holiday Account
If you’re determined to stay on track, put your holiday money somewhere you can actually see it. Watching your balance drop in real time goes a long way toward curbing impulse buys.
3. Rethink Gifting Expectations
A heartfelt note, a shared experience or a small but thoughtful gift can be just as meaningful as pricey presents. Have open conversations with your loved ones — odds are, you’re not the only one needing to cut back.
4. Leverage Cash-Back and Rewards Programs
From browser extensions to rewards apps, cash-back programs can help you stretch your budget a bit further, even if it’s just a few dollars per purchase.
A Little Holiday Magic (With $2,000 Attached)
To help readers stress less this season, MoneyLion will be giving away $2,000 a day for the next 50 days, starting Dec. 5. Entering the giveaway is easy — just sign up for a free MoneyLion account. Even if you don’t win, MoneyLion’s app is full of smart money tools to help you navigate the holidays and take control of your finances into the new year and beyond.
MoneyLion and GOBankingRates are both owned by GenDigital. The findings expressed in this article are based on publicly available data and independent analysis.
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This article originally appeared on GOBankingRates.com: The 10 States Most Likely To Overspend This Holiday Season — Is Yours on the List?
