Venezuela's twin earthquakes may leave behind one of the costliest natural disasters in the country's history, with U.S. earthquake experts warning that the economic impact could reach as much as 7% of the nation's gross domestic product (GDP) as authorities race to assess the full extent of the devastation.
A new assessment from the U.S. Geological Survey's Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) issued its highest Red Alert not only for potential fatalities but also for economic losses, indicating widespread destruction and a disaster likely to require both national and international assistance.
According to the agency's statistical model, there is an 85% probability that direct economic losses will exceed $1 billion, while there is a 12% chance damages could surpass $10 billion. Overall, the USGS estimates losses equivalent to between 1% and 7% of Venezuela's GDP, an enormous burden for a country that has spent years battling economic contraction, deteriorating infrastructure and limited public finances.
The estimates come after two powerful earthquakes struck northern Venezuela on Wednesday, when a magnitude 7.2 tremor was followed seconds later by an even stronger magnitude 7.5 earthquake centered near Yumare in Yaracuy state. The back-to-back quakes shook much of the country's most densely populated corridor, from Caracas to Valencia and the Caribbean coast.
Authorities continue to assess the destruction as rescue crews search through collapsed residential buildings, damaged hospitals, schools and commercial properties. Roads have buckled in several regions, while power outages, disrupted communications and damaged water systems have complicated emergency response efforts.
The USGS assessment estimates that more than 10 million people were exposed to moderate to violent shaking, including 7.75 million who experienced strong shaking capable of causing significant structural damage. Another 2.37 million people endured very strong shaking, while hundreds of thousands experienced severe to violent ground motion.
Much of the projected economic loss stems from the vulnerability of Venezuela's buildings.
According to the report, the country's population largely lives in unreinforced brick masonry and adobe block structures, construction types that are particularly susceptible to collapse during powerful earthquakes. Although earthquake-resistant buildings exist, especially in newer developments, vulnerable structures remain widespread throughout the affected region.
Some of Venezuela's largest cities experienced intense shaking.
The USGS estimates approximately 2.2 million residents in Caracas were exposed to Modified Mercalli Intensity VII shaking, while Valencia, La Guaira, Catia La Mar, Puerto Cabello, San Felipe, Petare, Los Teques, and Baruta also experienced damaging seismic intensity capable of producing widespread structural failures.
The report warns that reconstruction costs could continue rising as engineers inspect bridges, highways, airports, ports, schools and public utilities. Many buildings that remain standing may still require demolition if they are found to have suffered irreversible structural damage.
The economic challenge comes as Venezuela grapples with an ongoing humanitarian emergency. Officials have confirmed more than 160 deaths and hundreds of injuries, but rescue operations remain underway and authorities expect the casualty count to rise as emergency crews reach isolated communities.
The disaster also threatens to deepen existing economic problems. Oil infrastructure, manufacturing facilities, tourism businesses and transportation networks all face potential disruptions, while thousands of families may require long-term housing assistance after losing their homes.
The PAGER system was developed to provide governments and humanitarian organizations with rapid estimates of casualties and economic losses immediately after major earthquakes. While the figures are probabilistic rather than final accounting totals, they help emergency planners determine the scale of aid, financing and reconstruction resources that may ultimately be required.
