Thanksgiving traditions are, for some, not a reason not to get an early start on some Black Friday sales. Every year, there are pictures of those who go straight from turkey dinner to lining up at Walmart (WMT) or stories of people who wait until the first stroke of midnight to go on the Amazon (AMZN) link they bookmarked.
It could be the extended deals many online retailers now offer or the online mockery of such zeal but the tide is slowly starting to change.
While online sales between November 1 and December 31 are predicted to grow 2.5% year-over-year to $209.7 billion, sales on Thanksgiving Day are expected to fall 1% to $5.1 billion, according to the latest numbers from Adobe Analytics (ADBE).
"The shape of the holiday season will look different this year, with early discounting in October pulling up spend that would have occurred around Cyber Week," Patrick Brown, VP of growth marketing and insights at Adobe, said in a statement. "Even though we expect to see single-digit growth online this season, it is notable that consumers have already spent over $590 billion online this year at 8.9% growth, highlighting the resiliency of e-commerce demand."
Holiday Bargain Shopping Is Now Less About Individual Days
Such numbers show that while people are still looking for great deals, the focus is shifting away from days that were traditionally slated for shopping.
While Cyber Monday is still expected to bring in a record $11.2 billion in online sales, more and more people are looking for deals in October or hoping to score last-minute markdowns in December.
Cyber "Week," the period between Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday, is expected to bring in $34.8 billion overall. While that's an increase of 2.8% from the previous year, it is only a 16.3% share of the expected holiday season total. That number is down from 16.6% in 2021.
"These major shopping days are losing prominence as e-commerce becomes a more ubiquitous daily activity, and as consumers see discounts continuing throughout the full season," Adobe wrote in a statement.
Electronics, Clothes And Groceries Are Driving Holiday Spending
With rising inflation putting a dent in people's wallets, many holiday shoppers are looking for deals and not buying unless they find them.
At a predicted $103.8 billion in collective sales, electronics, apparel and groceries are going to be the three major forces in online holiday spending. Groceries are expected to bring in a record $13.3 billion.
While the higher cost of electronics has always pushed many to wait for discounts before making a purchase, many are now doing the same for basic clothes and groceries.
For the most part, retailers are giving consumers the discounts the want during more spread-out periods of shopping. Adobe expects online discounts to be at a record high of 32% this holiday season while discounts for electronics will jump from 8% in 2021 to 27% in 2022.
Toys and apparel will be some of the other heavily-discounted categories. Adobe predicts respective price drops of 22% and 19%.
Adobe still expects the most and biggest discounts for electronics to occur on Thanksgiving Day on November 24.. For toys, that day will be Saturday, November 26 while retailers will cut prices for clothes and sporting goods most on Sunday, November 27.
"While the days between Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday are set to have the best deals, consumers will see bargains as early as the second week of October," says Adobe. "[...] These moments will offer greater flexibility to consumers who need to manage their budgets in new ways this year."
