Bangkok (AFP) - After nearly two decades in exile, billionaire Thaksin Shinawatra remains one of the most influential figures in Thai politics, but Sunday's election could be his family's last chance to retake power.
The clan's party Pheu Thai, fronted by his daughter Paetongtarn, is leading in the polls, thanks in large part to its deep reservoir of support among the rural poor, its long-standing anti-military credentials and tactic of deploying a family member as a figurehead.
But in Thai politics, securing the most seats is no guarantee of victory.A junta rewrote the constitution in 2017 to give the military a huge advantage in future elections.
And Thaksin has had to watch from afar as other parties with more radical pro-democracy platforms have eaten into Pheu Thai's support.
"It is Thaksin and the Shinawatras' last bet," Wanwichit Boonprong, from Rangsit University's faculty of political science, told AFP.
"He will be 74 years old, and if Pheu Thai cannot get a landslide or even form the government, his chance to return home will be even more unlikely."
Thaksin tweeted Tuesday that he plans to return to Thailand by his July 26 birthday, saying he is ready to face justice in numerous corruption cases against him.
But rather than the courts or military, Wanwichit said the skyrocketing popularity of the progressive Move Forward Party (MFP), which has gained support from the youth who led pro-democracy protests three years ago, posed the bigger longer-term challenge.
"If we wait for another five more years, all trends will lead to Move Forward Party.Pheu Thai knows they can't wait, they need to win this election," he said.
New threat
Millions will vote on Sunday as Pheu Thai takes on establishment players like former junta chief Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-Cha and his new United Thai Nation (UTN) party.
The Shinawatra family have been a dominant presence in Thai politics for over 20 years -- parties linked to the family have won the most seats at every election since 2001.
Thaksin was prime minister between 2001 and 2006, while his sister Yingluck served as leader from 2011 until Prayut ousted her in a 2014 coup.
The family brand holds strong, especially in the party's rural heartlands, and the polls suggest Pheu Thai will again emerge with the most seats after Sunday's vote, but more progressive parties are nipping at its heels.
MFP is polling just 2.5 percentage points behind Pheu Thai in the latest survey by the National Institute of Development Administration (NIDA).
"If Pheu Thai can't form this government, then it will be more difficult in the next general election," said Jatuporn Prompan, a former leader of Red Shirt protests that took over the streets of Bangkok in 2010 in support of Thaksin.
- Enduring appeal -
When Thaksin scored his decisive election wins in 2001 and 2005, part of his appeal lay in his then-novel approach of focusing on policies that appealed to the kingdom's millions of poor and rural voters.
Once in power he mostly delivered for these communities, who remain loyal to the family and the party.
"He makes poor people's lives better, he thinks about poor people who have to work to make ends meet," said Katkaew Thipboonsri, 47, a Bangkok vendor.
Red Shirt leader Nattawut Saikuar, now a campaign manager for Pheu Thai, thinks this enduring popularity will allow Thaksin's party to triumph once again.
"He is still popular and beloved by most Red Shirts," he told AFP.
And while for some the Shinawatra name is tainted by corruption, others say the family's willingness to stand up to the military over two decades offers a way out of Thailand's endless merry-go-round of coups and street protests.
Taxi driver Mana Saenyod, 46, protested against Yingluck's government -- though he was not a Red Shirt -- but he feels differently this time around.
"I am not a Pheu Thai fan but I see it is necessary to help them win a landslide, otherwise we cannot get rid of the military," he told AFP.
