More than a month has passed since Thai voters went to the polls to choose their next government. Yet the country remains in limbo, with little clarity about whether the most popular party will be able to take power and with its leader placed under investigation.
The progressive Move Forward party stunned many observers by winning the most seats in May’s election after promising change in a country that has been ruled by coup-maker Prayuth Chan-ocha for nine years. Move Forward, which is hugely popular among younger voters, has since announced it has agreed to form a coalition with other opposition parties.
But Thailand’s election rules, combined with a legal case hanging over the party’s leader, Pita Limjaroenrat, means its path to power is uncertain.
The Election Commission said last week that it was pursuing an investigation into Pita to determine whether he ran despite being aware that he was ineligible. The case centres on a claim that Pita owned shares in a media company, which would be a breach of election rules. It follows a series of petitions filed against Pita by his opponents.
Pita has denied the allegations, saying the shares were inherited from his late father and that iTV, the company in question, has not operated as a media business since 2007.
Earlier this month he announced he had transferred ownership of the shares to prevent any efforts to revive the company’s media operations from affecting his role in politics. He was confident he had not broken any rules, he said.
If Pita is found to be in violation, he could face up to 10 years in jail, a 20-year ban from politics and a fine.
The investigation was likely “just the beginning”, said Siripan Nogsuan Sawasdee, a political scientist at Chulalongkorn University. It was possible another case against Pita, based on similar allegations, could be filed in the constitutional court by either the Election Commission or by a group of at least 50 MPs or 25 senators. Such cases could take months, even years, to resolve.
The investigations add to the obstacles for Move Forward. Pita was already facing an uphill battle to take power because Thailand’s electoral rules require him to pass a joint vote by both the 500-member House of Representatives and the Senate, whose 250 unelected members were appointed by the military after the coup in 2014.
It is unclear if enough senators – who are perceived as being mostly aligned with the conservative military establishment – will vote for Pita. If they do not, the country could face a deadlock.
That Pita was facing a legal challenge could provide senators with a reason not to back him, said Siripan, who added that many were already nervous of the party’s reformist agenda. “Move Forward has created a feeling of fear among these conservative segments in Thailand,” he added.
A nation transfixed
Move Forward campaigned on a promise of major changes, including removing the military from politics, reducing its budget and scrapping mandatory conscription. It also promised to tackle the big, powerful monopolies that dominate the economy, and reform the strict lese majesty law that shields the king from criticism. The latter promise is especially sensitive, and conservatives oppose any weakening of the law.
Photograph: Athit Perawongmetha/Reuters
Ken Lohatepanont, a commentator on Thai politics, said getting that past the Senate would be challenging and the outcome was hard to foresee: “After the initial rush, few senators have come out since to announce publicly that they are supporting Pita. We may not know whether he has the votes until it comes to actual voting in parliament, assuming Pita has not been disqualified before then.”
The latest legal case has dominated the news in Thailand, with daily updates reporting technicalities of the law and of iTV’s records and shareholder meetings.
Move Forward say it was only recently, in iTV’s latest financial report, that the company description changed, so that it was listed as a media business providing advertising services. Previous financial reports either noted that the company was a media business but not operating, or described the company in other terms.
Move Forward has questioned if there are efforts to revive the company’s media operations as part of a political attack.
In 2020, Move Forward’s predecessor party Future Forward was dissolved and its leaders banned from politics for 10 years by the constitutional court after it was found to have breached funding rules.
Khemthong Tonsakulrungruang, a lecturer at Chulalongkorn University’s faculty of law said the episode was likely to have a damaging impact on trust in Thailand’s politics and institutions. Thai politics had been stagnant for a long time, he said, adding that the election and emergence of Move Forward marked “the first time in many years that people feel empowered that they can change something, they can make a big change to the country”. The results had offered “a glimmer of hope”, he added.
“If you crush that hope, there’s going to be serious distrust towards public institutions – the court, the Election Commission, the whole constitutional system.”
