WASHINGTON — Texas Democrats didn’t get the bounce that abortion rights advocates in the party witnessed in some other states during the 2022 midterm elections and it’s unclear how the issue will play out in upcoming debates in the Legislature and Congress.
But one thing is certain: America’s debate over the volatile issue will continue in 2023 and beyond.
The 2022 midterms provided the first widespread test on the impacts of the U.S. Supreme Court decision to overturn landmark abortion rights case Roe v. Wade. Since the decision, Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, states have moved to enact near-total bans on abortion while others have solidified protections for reproductive rights.
Many Democrats anticipated a wave of support from the decision, which did come in some parts of the country. But not in Texas.
Anti-abortion rights candidates kept control in most Nov. 8 races across the state. Republicans maintained their strong majority in the Legislature, top statewide offices remained red and the Texas delegation in the U.S. House saw all Republican incumbents and some newcomers in the GOP win.
“It shows that the pro-life message works in Texas,” said Joe Pojman, executive director of Texas Alliance for Life. “It shows that Texas remains a pro-life state.”
Pojman said his organization was pleased with the results of the U.S. House races, and was glad to see at least one of the three anti-abortion South Texas candidates win. He added the results both for the U.S. House and state Legislature races indicate the Rio Grande Valley area appears to be an area of expansion for the anti-abortion movement.
There were some victories among candidates supporting abortion rights as 51 of those endorsed by Planned Parenthood Texas Votes won their races.
“Widespread support for abortion access redefined the dynamics of this election,” wrote Drucilla Tigner, deputy director, strategic campaigns and partnerships at Planned Parenthood Texas Votes, in a statement. “Contending with Republican gerrymandering and massive amounts of money coming in from outside interest groups, these races show that abortion is a winning issue among Texans.”
However, Democratic challengers who leaned into abortion throughout the campaign, including gubernatorial candidate Beto O’Rourke and attorney general candidate Rochelle Garza, were defeated by staunchly conservative incumbents who favor strong restrictions or a ban on most abortions.
Joshua Blank, research director for the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas, said states that had ballot measures on abortion typically experience a clear boost for Democrats and abortion access advocates.
Texans’ views on abortion have remained generally fixed and divided along party lines, Blank said.
National changes in midterms
While the results of the midterms may not immediately change federal policy, some experts expect greater protections and successful legal challenges from abortion rights advocates at the state level.
Michigan, Vermont and California voters passed a ballot measure to enshrine abortion protections into their state constitutions. In another win for abortion rights supporters, Kentucky voters rejected a ballot measure adding language that would have denied abortion protections in the constitution.
Abortion rights advocates also prevailed in key statehouse races. Democratic governors won in Michigan, Arizona, Kansas, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, meaning they will have the power to sign or veto legislation on abortion.
Since the midterm elections, and nearly five months after the Supreme Court decision on Dobbs, state judges are also beginning to consider the constitutionality of abortion bans. On Nov. 15, a Georgia judge ruled that the six-week ban on abortion was unconstitutional and cannot be enforced. However, on Nov. 23 the Georgia Supreme Court reinstated the ban after an appeal from the state attorney general.
The Kentucky Supreme Court also heard oral arguments to determine the constitutionality of a trigger ban on abortion that only offers exceptions in cases to save the patient’s life. The law has been challenged by abortion rights advocates and providers, and currently remains in effect despite brief pauses.
Kari White, lead investigator at the Texas Policy Evaluation Project, said midterm results and judicial rulings outside Texas demonstrate a lack of support for full bans on abortion.
As Texas holds a nearly complete ban on abortion, those who seek abortions are more frequently considering costly interstate travel to states where procedures are legal, or getting abortion pills delivered from out of state.
For Dallas residents, the closest clinics by car are in Kansas, which elected a Democratic governor in the midterms and previously voted to protect the existing state constitutional right to an abortion.
White said the Kansas election was “critical” as an indicator of support for abortion and for people in states like Texas who seek out-of-state abortions. She added the reelection of the Democratic governor in New Mexico, who has supported strengthening abortion access, is also important for Texans.
Lasting impact of Dobbs decision
Going into the legislative session that begins in January, it remains to be seen what proposals will be considered. Research director Blank said public opinion supports adding exceptions for cases involving rape and incest and offering more clarity about what constitutes a health emergency for the mother, which Democrats and some Republicans in the Legislature have indicated they support.
However, lawmakers could choose to go the opposite direction and pursue further restrictions on out-of-state travel, abortion funds, medication abortions or enforcement.
With the anti-abortion hold in the state Legislature, Pojman said Texas Alliance for Life will focus on securing and maintaining alternatives to abortion resources and maintain the restrictions put in place through the Human Life Protection Act of 2021.
Pojman said his organization won’t push for restrictions on out-of-state travel and he believes it’s a constitutional right. However, he added it would not advocate for adjusting the exceptions already in place to include exemptions for rape or incest.
In recent polling, most Texans opposed measures that further restrict abortion, while a small minority favored greater restrictions.
Looking back, Blank said, Roe was a solid framework that represented public opinion well by establishing a baseline of early pregnancy abortion access, which the public generally supported while leaving flexibility to reflect the values of each state.
After the Dobbs decision, the middle ground is diminishing. Democratic states have moved to allow abortions at nearly any point in a pregnancy while Republican states have placed near total bans. Blank said neither of those actions are widely favorable among the public, and it will be difficult for both parties to navigate the divide in public opinion in 2024 and beyond.
The impact of Dobbs could take a while to sort out, Blank said, and could mean abortion views are less fixed to political parties.
“As we move into this more absolutist era and we think about not the next two or four years, but the next five or 10, it could be that over those election cycles we really start to see the impact of the Dobbs decision on the political system,” Blank said.
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