Texas Democrats underperformed yet again. Now what?

The Ector County Democratic Headquarters on election night, Tuesday, Nov. 5, 2024, in Odessa. (Credit: Eli Hartman/The Texas Tribune)

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Texas Democrats are starting to sound like the little boy who cried “battleground state,” after yet another election cycle where they shouted from the rooftops that Texas should be viewed as capable of going blue and then drastically underperformed expectations.

President-elect Donald Trump won Texas by 14 percentage points over Vice President Kamala Harris on Tuesday — a surprisingly wide margin that bested his 2020 and 2016 performances in the state. Texas has for decades reliably gone for the Republican presidential nominee, but Democrats have been heartened that for the past several election cycles, the margin had been steadily narrowing.

The party’s Senate candidate, U.S. Rep. Colin Allred of Dallas, out performed Harris but still lost to Republican Sen. Ted Cruz by 9 percentage points, according to unofficial results published by The Associated Press. That’s more than three times the margin that Beto O’Rourke lost to Cruz six years ago, and a wider loss margin than a majority of polls put the race in recent months. It also came after Senate Democrats and other national party officials visited Texas and invested in Allred’s race, citing him as one of the best chances to flip a seat in the upper chamber to protect their majority — which they lost on Tuesday.

The minority party also lost ground in the Legislature where Republicans now control 88 seats in the House and 20 in the Senate. And in South Texas, Republicans made historic gains in the predominantly Hispanic region that has reliably supported Democrats, and they lost their challenge to retake a South Texas congressional seat the GOP had won in 2022.

“This to me is a complete disaster. They underperformed everywhere,” said Jon Taylor, a political science professor at the University of Texas San Antonio. “They are disorganized. They are a party in the wilderness.”

State Democrats have been especially hopeful since 2018 — after they rode a blue wave down the ballot off of O’Rourke’s history-making Senate run. That year they flipped Texas House districts, local government seats and state appellate courts. Republicans still controlled the Legislature and occupied every statewide office, but Democrats saw that year as the beginning of a new era.

It led to high hopes in 2020, when Democrats fell far short of their goal of flipping the Texas House blue. And then again in 2022, when O’Rourke ran for governor and lost by double-digit margins to Gov. Greg Abbott. That was a midterm election where Republicans underperformed nationwide — everywhere, that is, except for Texas and Florida.

Republicans on Tuesday night relished running up the score against their political foes. Gov. Greg Abbott’s top political adviser pointed at a potentially larger problem for Democrats going forward: How will they get donors to continue funding their campaigns after losing again?

“So do you think national Democratic donors will ever believe these Texas Democrat grifters again?” Dave Carney said on social media.

Soul searching

Democratic operatives were left licking their wounds Wednesday morning on numerous debriefing calls to figure out what had gone wrong Tuesday.

Among the issues they identified: a national red wave that delivered massive wins for Trump as well as GOP control of the U.S. Senate; a lack of infrastructure and coordination between federal and local campaigns across the state that left Democrats underperforming at every level; and a refusal to acknowledge the increasing realignment of parts of the electorate that were previously the core of the Democratic base, namely working class voters and Latinos.

Ali Zaidi, a Democratic political operative who ran Mike Collier’s campaign for lieutenant governor in 2022 said many in the party are rooted in a “pre-2012” belief that an increasingly diverse Texas would lead automatically to Democratic gains. But many voters of color this cycle cast their ballots for Republicans, like Latinos in South Texas.

Zaidi said Democrats need to either adjust how they connect with Latino voters in the state or look for votes in other places.

“Campaigns are not magical things that change how people feel about the world,” he said, adding that campaigns need to meet people where they are. “If an electorate is no longer a reliable electorate for you the answer as a campaign is to find a new electorate that works for you.”

Several Democrats said the catastrophic election, not only in the state but around the country, should compel the party to do some serious soul searching on what their message should be. Matt Angle, a veteran Texas Democratic operative and director of the Lone Star Project, expressed frustration that the party focused more on what drove the base than kitchen-table issues that were actually on the minds of many voters, such as the economy.

“One of the things that annoys me a lot of times about Democrats as progressives [is] that they say we need to decide what we stand for, and we need to then go push that on voters,” Angle said. But “we need to find out where voters are and meet them where they are.”

Chad Wilbanks, a Republican strategist and former Texas GOP executive director, said the Democratic party is out of touch with the state because they care more about “political correctness” than what voters are telling them.

“They have lost the battle of ideas,” he said. “In Texas, we want a secure border, we want to feel safe in our homes and in our schools. That’s important. [And] inflation plays a major role.”

But even if Democrats were to coalesce behind a persuasive message, the state party faces the challenge of not having the long-term infrastructure to support their candidates running for statewide office. Years of neglect in the decades since the party lost control has left much of its functions outsourced to outside groups, including activist organizations and super PACs, Angle said.

Without a leader Angle said there needed to be an “alpha” elected official to lead the effort as Democratic Sen. Lloyd Bentsen did when he was in office, to coordinate the disparate efforts working to elect Democrats. Allred began to fill that role during the campaign, heading the first Senate-led coordinated campaign in Texas in decades, which consolidated resources up and down the ticket.

The Texas Majority PAC, which is backed by billionaire George Soros, was among the groups that also tried to fill in this cycle and help coordinate Democratic efforts. The group spent more than $600,000 in Cameron County and $700,000 in Hidalgo County – both of which are located in the Rio Grande Valley and were flipped by Trump at the top of the ticket in a stunning upset.

Katherine Fischer, the group’s deputy executive director, said Tuesday’s results were “devastating” and not the results Democrats had wanted. But she found a silver lining in the party’s ability to hold on to the seat of U.S. Rep. Vicente Gonzalez, D-McAllen, in Hidalgo County, through coordination with the congressman’s campaign and the local party operations.

Fischer said her group will pick apart the election and issue a report but given the margin of victory for Republicans, it’s hard to pinpoint what Democrats could have done to change the outcomes.

“You lose by 10 or 15 points or something shifts by 20 points, [and] there’s no amount of strategy that can combat that,” Fischer said. “There’s some major issues within the Democrat party writ large that we need to reckon with like how voters perceive the Democratic party and how that perception has come to differ so wildly from reality and what we do to recover that.”

Fischer said her group always envisioned its project being one dependent on multiple cycles. The PAC is focused on continuing to build out sorely needed Democratic infrastructure for years to come, she said, acknowledging there are no easy answers from this cycle.

Democrats in Texas often bemoan the lack of investment from the top of the ticket in the state, which is largely written off as unwinnable by national groups. Tides changed this cycle, as the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee and Senate Majority PAC invested over $15 million in Allred’s Senate race as election day approached. National Democratic groups also invested over $1 million in protecting Vicente’s congressional seat.

U.S. Rep. Greg Casar, D-Austin, said it’s not enough to plead for a massive influx of cash at the last minute.

“Texas needs long-term paid organizing efforts like in other battleground states, where we communicate those everyday, working people issues to disaffected voters, and I think it gives us a lot to learn from this election,” Casar said. “Because a strategy where we're just trying to persuade a small number of voters on television cannot compete with the kind of on-the-ground organizing efforts that Republicans have put in.”

Luke Warford, a former strategist for the Texas Democrats who now runs a fund to create party infrastructure, said the party needs to invest in candidate recruitment, staff training, communications and how to successfully target voters — all things the Texas GOP excel at.

“If we do that and still lose, then we need to go back to the drawing board,” he said.

Fischer said Democrats needed to be honest with donors about the election’s results but also communicate a long-term plan.

“I hope donors who gave to the Allred campaign or to any other project in Texas understand their dollars were not wasted and most states don't flip over night,” she said. “They don’t flip in one cycle or two cycles, it takes time.”

Texas Democrats aren’t counting themselves out yet. They plan to be back in the spotlight in 2026 when Sen. John Cornyn’s seat is up for reelection, along with statewide elected seats like governor. “If history is right, Trump will have done enough to upset enough people,” Angle said. “You know we shouldn't look forward with dread. We need to have real clear eyes and really accurately assess what happened this election, but to be hopeful moving forward.”

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