Democrats’ hopes of winning control of the US Senate in November’s midterm elections have been boosted by a poll showing James Talarico, the party’s candidate in Texas, leading in a head-to-head matchup against two potential Republican opponents.
The Texas Public Opinion Research (TPOR) survey has Talarico, a Democratic state legislator, ahead of the GOP incumbent senator, John Cornyn, and his internal party challenger, Ken Paxton, in one-on-one contests.
According to the poll, which surveyed the intentions of 1,865 likely voters, Talarico has a three point lead – 44% to 41% over Cornyn, who has been a senator since 2002 and served four consecutive terms.
Talarico, a former seminarian who has made a point of fusing his Christian values with progressive policies, has a five point lead, 46% to 41%, in a hypothetical contest with Paxton, the Texas attorney general who has gained a reputation as a conservative firebrand and been embroiled in controversy after misconduct charges led to him being impeached in 2023.
Cornyn and Paxton face each other in a primary runoff election on 26 May before one will appear on November’s ballot.
Each have vied for the endorsement of Donald Trump – whose support has long been deemed the bellwether of viability for Republican candidates. So far, Trump has declined to endorse either man, describing both as “electable” and “great people”.
TPOR’s figures suggest Talarico’s lead over both is heavily driven by the support of Black, Latino and college-educated voters. Talarico also has large leads among moderate and independent voters.
Republicans have a 53-47 advantage in the 100-seat Senate, meaning Democrats need to make a net gain of four seats in November to retake control. Recent polls show the party with a fighting chance of pulling off such an electoral feat, although it is generally judged a tougher challenge than retaking the House of Representatives, where the Republicans have a wafer-thin majority.
