Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, a close ally of former President Donald Trump, faces a surprisingly tough primary race as a slew of Republican rivals promise the same brand of conservative politics without the never-ending scandals that have dogged the incumbent.
The leading challenger in the March 1 primary is George P. Bush, the grandson of one president and nephew of another. He’s hoping a famous name and his own ties to Trump could help him unseat the two-term attorney general.
Paxton enjoys a national reputation from frequent media appearances to tout his lawsuits against the Biden administration’s policies on immigration and vaccine mandates, as well as his failed efforts to contest the 2020 election results. He’s sued Alphabet Inc. on antitrust grounds, clashed with Wall Street banks accused of discriminating against the gun industry and been a proponent of recently enacted Texas laws that banned most abortions and created new limitations around voting.
But Paxton has also been dogged by a securities fraud indictment, bribery accusations from his own staff, and his refusal to comply with open records laws tied to the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol riot.
This has fueled concerns among some in the GOP that Paxton could be vulnerable to a Democrat in November’s general election, opening the door to the primary challengers. Three high-profile Republicans have entered the race, including Bush, U.S. Rep. Louis Gohmert and state Supreme Court Justice Eva Guzman.
Bush, the 45-year-old son of former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, is polling at No.2 ahead of the primary. Elected as Texas Land Commissioner in 2014, he’s focused on the redevelopment of the Alamo tourist site, disaster relief and managing public lands.
“Texas deserves better, an attorney that is above reproach who is going to focus on the job and do it with honesty and integrity the Texas way,” Bush said in an interview with Bloomberg News. “And not embarrass our state.”
None of the challengers for Paxton’s job are staking out policy positions much different than the incumbent’s, but they all promise to restore integrity to the AG’s office. Even if voters don’t view Paxton’s baggage as disqualifying, they might see it as enough of a liability in the general election that they would want to replace him on the party ticket.
“Paxton is compromised by legal difficulties — what if he’s indicted, what if the FBI sweeps in and takes files out of his house?” said Cal Jillson, a political science professor at Southern Methodist University in Dallas.
Polls show Paxton may struggle to garner the more than 50% support in the primary that would allow him to avoid a runoff against his top challenger on May 24. Only 33% of likely voters said they backed Paxton in the race, according to a Dallas Morning News-University of Texas at Tyler poll released Jan. 30. Bush had 19% support, with Gohmert at 8% and Guzman close behind with 7%.
Legal battles
More than six years ago, Paxton was indicted for securities fraud, accused of persuading investors to buy stock in a technology firm, Servergy Inc., without making clear that he would get a commission. His case, which stems from actions when he was a state lawmaker, has yet to go to trial and Paxton has denied wrongdoing.
Paxton’s ethics were also called into question in late 2020 when several of his own staffers accused him of bribery and abuse of office to help out a wealthy political donor. Paxton’s office published a 374-page report concluding that he’s innocent of those accusations.
And in January, Paxton came into the limelight again by refusing to comply with a county district attorney’s determination that he had violated open records laws by withholding his communications around the time of the 2021 insurrection in Washington. Media organizations had requested them under the Texas Public Information Act.
Paxton, 59, won reelection to his post in 2018 even after the securities fraud indictment, suggesting most voters aren’t seriously concerned about the accusations of wrongdoing, according to Patrick Flavin, a professor at Baylor University in Waco.
“If the legal baggage were to damage him, it would have happened by now,” Flavin said. “He probably will survive. But if it goes to a runoff, then it’s more tossed into doubt.”
The Republican candidates for the attorney general post all have pledged to fight federal government overreach by the Biden administration, to toughen security along the border with Mexico and combat voter fraud. So how compelling voters find their biographies might be key to winning support.
Bush, who previously served as an officer in the U.S. Naval Reserve in Afghanistan and also worked at a private equity firm, was widely seen as a rising star in his party just a few years ago, when his father seemed poised to make a serious run for the White House. Trump’s ascendancy in the 2016 presidential primary — and his criticism of the Bush family — called that into question. The younger Bush endorsed Trump for president anyway and broadly aligned himself with the movement.
Trump called him “the only Bush who got it right,” a statement highlighted by the campaign.
Guzman, 61, may be the least well known of Paxton’s challengers after serving on the state supreme court and before that on an appeals court in Houston. But she bested all her competitors in fundraising in the second half of last year, bringing in $3.7 million, $900,000 more than Paxton.
“Paxton has not been able to deliver meaningful results because he is too distracted by his own legal and ethical problems,” Guzman said in an email.
Gohmert, 68, has a reputation as among the most extreme lawmakers in the House of Representatives, known for efforts to reverse Trump’s election defeat. He’s well liked among hard-line conservatives in Texas, according to Jon Taylor, a political science professor at University of Texas at San Antonio.
“Louie Gohmert’s name alone might get him into the runoff,” Taylor said.
Five candidates are vying for the Democratic nomination for attorney general, but with the party shut out of statewide office since 1994, for now Republicans are focused on the primary.
Ultimately, there could be more than the attorney general’s office at stake. The post has been a launching pad for politicians seeking to advance to the governor’s mansion in Austin.
“This could foretell who has the best chances to be elected governor down the road,” Flavin said.
