The NFL combine will officially be held in Indianapolis from Feb. 28 to March 6 in what serves as the league’s hallmark pre-draft event.
All 32 teams will have the opportunity to inspect measurables, check medical pictures, and get to know prospects of interest leading up to April’s main event.
The combine inevitably shuffles the draft board each season. First-round locks with iffy medicals or unexpectedly poor physical outings can watch their stock plummet. Players who ace their interviews or show off unique talents on the field can force teams to take a second look at their film.
Houston has both the second and twelfth overall selections in this year’s draft and, with 12 picks in total, will have all hands on deck to learn what they can at the combine. Before the shuffle, here’s how Houston’s draft may currently play out.
Round 1 (No. 2 overall) — QB C.J. Stroud, Ohio State
To this point, all reporting suggests that the Chicago Bears are very likely to move the No. 1 overall selection. The Indianapolis Colts, Las Vegas Raiders, or Carolina Panthers could end up leapfrogging Houston to select the first quarterback off the board. In this case, the Texans are jumped and left without the draft’s top quarterback in Alabama’s Bryce Young.
However, general manager Nick Caserio has no problem pivoting to Stroud.
The 21-year-old is the most naturally accurate passer in the draft. With the Buckeyes, he showed off field vision and arm strength that made him a natural point guard for Ohio State’s elite receiving talent. There has been some scrutiny as, under coach Ryan Day, Stroud generally functioned as a pocket passer. However, against Notre Dame and Georgia, Stroud flashed some natural athleticism and mobility that suggests there’s more to learn for the young quarterback.
The Notre Dame game for Stroud was a lot better than I remembered watching live.
Some missed opportunities by receivers changed the box score and he flashed good athleticism extending plays (still no scrambling but beggars can’t be choosers). When he sees it he rips it.
— John Crumpler (@JohnHCrumpler) February 18, 2023
Coach DeMeco Ryans and offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik take Stroud here with the belief he can naturally move the chains behind tackles Laremy Tunsil and Tytus Howard and will continue to develop his play extension abilities as he’s forced to do so more often in the NFL
Round 1 (No. 12 overall) — WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Ohio State
After selecting Stroud second overall, it’s only natural that Houston looks to make life easier for their rookie quarterback. Smith-Njigba from Ohio State represents an easy and obvious way to accomplish that.
Smith-Njigba had 95 catches for 1,606 yards in 2021 before only playing in four games this past season. He was the Buckeyes’ leading wideout during the previous year on a team that featured NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Garrett Wilson and breakout New Orleans Saints receiver Chris Olave. His route running, shiftiness in-and-out of breaks, and natural hands should make for an easy NFL transition.
Reminder when we talk about potential receivers for Houston that Jaxon Smith-Njigba made Garrett Wilson, now NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year, look like a #2 receiver when they played on the same team.
Might look nice in the Battle Red #WeAreTexans
— John Crumpler (@JohnHCrumpler) February 10, 2023
There are questions entering the combine about Smith-Njigba’s straight line speed, but the natural fit with Stroud and insane production profile make this dice roll one worth taking for Caserio as Houston looks to create a far more explosive offense than the one featured in 2022.
Round 2 (No. 33 overall) — RB Bijan Robinson, Texas
The 2023 NFL draft is expected to be extremely deep at the running back position. There’s value littered throughout the second day of the draft and the widespread availability of talent could signal an overall devaluing of the position as teams around the league decide to wait on selecting a running back. Combine that with the recent history of first round running backs and it’s feasible to envision a Day 1 that features nobody from the position group.
In this mock, Houston is content to take the first back off the board and take one of the five best overall players in the draft.
Seeing some Bijan Robinson discourse on the timeline…
Robinson projects as the most immediately impactful non-QB offensive player in the draft. Could build your entire scheme around him, be creative with 2 back sets, make life easy for Stroud/Bryce.
Not the worst idea.
— John Crumpler (@JohnHCrumpler) January 28, 2023
Robinson was a star at Texas and is considered the best running back to enter the draft since Saquon Barkley. His explosiveness, physicality, and vision project as a high-level NFL runner. Factor in Robinson’s pass protection, soft hands, and route running ability and this is a player that could have a similar impact as San Francisco’s Christian McCaffrey.
Ryans watched first hand how much his former boss Kyle Shanahan benefited from McCaffrey’s arrival to the 49ers and decides to make life equally as easy for Slowik and Stroud. The Texans would have one of the NFL’s best running back duos immediately between Robinson and Dameon Pierce.
Round 3 (No. 65 overall) — DE Andre Carter, Army
Carter had a fantastic career while at army. The 6-7 260-pound edge rusher had 15.5 sacks as a junior in 2021 and was an All-American with potential to go in the first round of the 2023 NFL draft. However, his senior season saw a dip in production and his performance at the Senior Bowl has left scouts wondering how he’ll translate against NFL competition.
Here, Caserio stops Carter’s slide and drafts a gifted physical frame for Ryans to develop on the defensive line.
Watching Andre Carter II is so funny. Dude looks like Slenderman playing EDGE lmao
pic.twitter.com/qx3nVsmP3U— David Miller #ExtendKhariBlasingame (@millerfootball_) February 25, 2023
Carter represents a rare physical toolset and is the perfect kind of athlete that Ryans could potentially mold into a future impact player on his defense. Player development is expected to take a premium under the new coaching regime and this is the exact profile Houston should be targeting as they look to rebuild their defense.
Round 3 (No. 72 overall) — LB DeMarvion Overshown, Texas
As a former linebacker, it’s been no secret that Ryans loves developing and working with the position. Here, Caserio takes one with plenty of room to grow.
How would we feel about Texas LB DeMarvion Overshown as a potential developmental middle linebacker for DeMeco Ryans' defense?
The athletic profile and versatility he showed on film has me intrigued at his ceiling as he sees more time at the position. He can do everything.
— John Crumpler (@JohnHCrumpler) February 26, 2023
Overshown originally joined the Longhorns as a safety before converting to linebacker in 2020. He had 96 tackles, 10 tackles for loss, and five passes defended during his final season and flashed in Mobile as someone who has room to improve with the technical aspects of the position.
DeMarvion Overshown, on the edge. Drops back into coverage. As simple as reading the QBs eyes and is able to undercut the throw and come down with the INT pic.twitter.com/MlGHuW0HEU
— Tyler Browning (@DiabeticTyler) December 9, 2022
At 6-4, 223 pounds, Overshown represents an athletic profile and newness to the position that Ryans will be excited to work with. During his time in San Francisco he helped transform Fred Warner into the league’s best linebacker and there’s reason to believe he could do the same with Overshown’s profile.
He’d be expected to start the season on the bench with plenty of opportunity to join the rotation as the year progresses.
