There’s no secret what the biggest headline of the Houston Texans’ off-season is.
The new uniform changes away from one of the simplest concepts in the NFL? Meaningless. $40 million in cap space that could accelerate a dragging rebuild? Irrelevant. The hiring of new head coach DeMeco Ryans, one of the hottest candidates on the market? Even that pales in comparison to the headline that dominates the NFL combine this week.
The first of likely many meeting for DeMeco Ryans and Nick Caserio with Bryce Young, CJ Stroud, Will Levis, and Anthony Richardson.
Two months to figure out who you’d like to attach your careers to and ultimately choose as the next face of Houston football.
No pressure.
— John Crumpler (@JohnHCrumpler) March 2, 2023
Houston, after an abysmal 3-13-1 campaign, owns the second pick in the draft and essentially a guaranteed lottery ticket at trying to find a new franchise quarterback. Just one year after finally resolving their franchise quarterback quagmire, Houston has a prime opportunity to replace the most difficult position in football. There’s just one problem.
The Chicago Bears.
When Davis Mills completed the NFL’s only fourth-and-20 for a touchdown to Jordan Akins in Week 18, it not only delivered Houston an improbable victory but also shifted ownership of the first overall pick from general manager Nick Caserio and Ryans to Ryan Poles and the entire front office brass in Chicago.
The Bears are rumored to have great confidence in third year quarterback Justin Fields despite their unfortunate record and are looking to capitalize on the pick. Trading first overall could jump start their own rebuild and there’s reportedly great interest from the Indianapolis Colts, Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers, and Houston.
Despite the painful, self-inflicted nature of the situation that Houston now finds themselves in, it’s unfortunately an option they should strongly entertain.
The national consensus has all four of the top quarterbacks in essentially the same tier of prospect. Alabama’s Bryce Young, Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud, Kentucky’s Will Levis and Florida’s Anthony Richardson all have their own strengths and weaknesses with none universally considered to be the top option. This has created a scenario where many argue that it would not be advantageous, or make sense at all, for Houston to make their way to the top of the draft board.
This idea doesn’t necessarily hold true in practice.
Nobody will care what Houston traded to move from #2 to #1 as long as they hit on the quarterback.
If Nick Caserio thinks that trade needs to be made to find the guy, optics be damned, it’ll be the right move for the franchise.
Week 18 is a sunk cost, find the franchise QB.
— John Crumpler (@JohnHCrumpler) February 28, 2023
Quarterback in the NFL is about far more than just playing the position. The person chosen is more often than not a team captain and a de facto leader in your locker room. They’re the person whose skillset you must inevitably build an entire offense around to match. The quarterback in today’s passing league is the face of your team and a pseudo-CEO of your billion-dollar company.
The position is representative of the team and everything it encompasses far more than any other position.
It’s hard to imagine that Cal McNair, Caserio and Ryans will equally be confident in any of the two quarterback prospects, let alone any of the four, to serve in this capacity. The tape may suggest two prospects with similar odds of success in the NFL but interviews in Indianapolis or reports from their college campuses could suggest a different caliber of off-the-field presence.
Those additional factors are the ones that often tank quarterback careers in the NFL. Immaturity, lack of commitment to film review, and poor people skills can tank a budding career despite any physical quality someone may have.
This is a draft pick that likely determines the initial three year window of Ryans’ career as a coach. The success of this pick may dictate whether or not Caserio has a job five years from now with Houston. Are they willing to risk that on someone they don’t trust entirely?
Houston is also still in somewhat of a lead position to acquire the pick if they’re interested. After all, the second overall pick is an extremely favorable asset.
The recent charges and arrest of Georgia defensive lineman Jalen Carter have left Alabama edge rusher Will Anderson as the only blue-chip non-quarterback prospect of the draft. Anderson gathered at least 10 sacks in each season with the Crimson Tide and is coming off a NFL combine performance where he did everything he needed to to secure his top-5 status.
Defensive-minded Chicago coach Matt Eberflus may have a hard time releasing the right to what projects as a game-wrecking defensive edge prospect. Any trade down beyond No. 2 introduces the likely concept that the Arizona Cardinals and their rookie general manager will simply take the best player available and add Anderson to their roster.
Any further trade down likely requires a far greater ask from Chicago as they forfeit the right to the draft’s best prospect. Houston is in a unique position where their offer very reasonably would not need to include a future first rounder.
There’s incentive in the trade for both sides.
In 2017, the Bears traded additional third, fourth, and future third-round picks for the right to move up one spot from third to second overall and draft quarterback Mitch Trubisky. A similar trade six years later with Houston, centered around multiple Day 2 picks, could be a desirable outcome.
The Texans would secure their right to the top quarterback on their board and the exact launch point they want for the new era of football under Ryans. The Bears would be able to take additional capital and take Anderson or begin the process of a bidding war for the right to take whatever quarterback Houston does not signal interest in.
The position is the most difficult to find in the NFL. It is unfortunately one where failure to succeed, despite any other roster level of success, can tank a budding football team. Just ask the 2022 New York Jets.
Even Ryans, who saw his offensive guru head coach Kyle Shanahan take the 49ers to the NFC Championship with Brock Purdy, recognizes the shortcut that high level quarterback play can factor into turning a team around. He cited the arrival of Jimmy Garropolo and the five-game winning streak in San Francisco during 2017 as the impact of a high-level signal caller, even on a bad team.
Houston HC DeMeco Ryans on the quarterback position, his experience in San Francisco:
"In 2017, a quarterback came in (Jimmy G) and we won 5 straight games to end the season… It shows you when you have a bona fide quarterback it helps you win games. It helps you be successful"
— John Crumpler (@JohnHCrumpler) March 1, 2023
Houston owes it to themselves to secure their prospect of choice after three terrible years and finally landing a high caliber coaching candidate. The city deserves the excitement that comes with a front office making bold decisions necessary to win.
Can Caserio get over the sunk cost of a pick that should’ve been theirs to begin with? Fans will have to wait and see. In the meantime, it’s certainly not a crazy idea.
