The Houston Texans have two first-round picks and are coming off a coaching cycle where they left with one of the most universally sought after candidates in the league DeMeco Ryans.
There’s a buzz around the franchise and their relative ability not only to rebuild their team but to control April’s NFL draft with the enormous draft capital the team holds.
One of the hottest topics is whether or not the team will trade for the first overall pick after forfeiting the selection to the Chicago Bears with their Week 18 victory over the Indianapolis Colts. The Bears are reportedly likely to trade the selection with a desire to build around third-year quarterback Justin Fields.
Seriously, I could write convincing 500-word articles with equal quotational evidence for either "Nick Caserio hints at wanting to move up via trade" or "Nick Caserio content to pick at #2" after the press conference.
I love this man. Excellent work today at the podium.
— John Crumpler (@JohnHCrumpler) February 28, 2023
Caserio was his usual self on the topic and revealed very little about the preferred potential direction of the franchise.
The general manager stayed very even throughout questioning and, when asked directly about the possibility of trading up, he said their current focus wasn’t on the Chicago Bears but rather about his own team.
“I think we’re focused on the Texans,” Caserio said. “We’re not necessarily worried about what other teams around us are doing. You’re cognizant of that, but ultimately you have to be prepared to pick wherever you’re going to pick. Then, be prepared to pick whatever player. I’d say most teams, not to generalize here, but most teams wherever they pick you probably have three or four guys that you would feel comfortable taking. If a team is in front of you and you’re only talking about one player, then it’s going to leave two to three other players. So, you’re either comfortable with that group of players or you’re not. Again, you can’t really get too caught up in what other teams are doing. You just try to make decisions that you feel are best for your team and your situation.”
It was interesting to hear Caserio mention that they’re “either comfortable with that group of players or (you’re) not.” In this case, that would seemingly revolve around the possibility that Bryce Young could be selected before Houston has the opportunity to take him second overall. Young has emerged as somewhat of a consensus top quarterback in the draft and there is buzz around the league that the Colts, Las Vegas Raiders or Carolina Panthers could move up to select him.
Would they be equally as comfortable with a quarterback like Anthony Richardson or C.J. Stroud instead? Would they be comfortable passing on the position altogether to take a stud defensive lineman like Will Anderson or Jalen Carter? That’s what the scouts in the building will have to determine.
Caserio had a unique answer as to how the Texans would evaluate moving upwards in the draft should they decide to make the decision to go upward from their original slot.
“We’ll look at all of that,” Caserio said. “We actually have a trade chart simulator, where you factor in the points and what’s the costs associated with it. I would say it’s twofold. Some teams have an analytically driven chart, here’s what that summation of the numbers is and then you have the Jimmy (Johnson) chart. I think most teams are still using the traditional Jimmy chart as a reference point, but each team has its own sort of model. The issue you have is you’re trying to do a trade and their model says one thing and your model says another thing, so we’re speaking two different languages. How do we find a resolution? I think that’s more of an exercise for when we get into April. We’re positioned here. What would it cost to move up one spot? We’re at 12. What would it cost to move up a few spots? What would it cost to move back? We’ll look at all those. February 28 is probably not the time to do that.”
It probably is too early in the process for Houston to focus in on one particular prospect that they’d like to trade up for. Regardless, Caserio did little to shut down the noise around a potential trade up for a franchise quarterback.
Fans will have to wait and see what sort of path he and Ryans will want to forge for the team in their first season together.
