Player comparisons are as commonplace during draft time as orange construction barrels on I-35.
According to Cynthia Frelund from NFL.com, one receiver that shares similar traits to a Pro Bowler from the past decade is TCU’s Quentin Johnston. The analytics maven believes that the former Horned Frog compares favorably to former Cincinnati Bengals and Arizona Cardinals receiver A.J. Green.
When I vetted this with some of my NFL team folks (execs and scouts), they wanted to make sure I’d stress that this comp falls on the more generous end of the spectrum. Nobody wants to insult Johnston, but rather create fair expectations for a 21-year-old who’s yet to take an NFL snap. (After all, Green made the Pro Bowl in his first seven seasons!) According to PFF, Johnston’s 3.05 yards per route run led the pass-happy Big 12 last season and ranked fifth in the FBS. Meanwhile, his 8.9 yards after catch per reception ranked second in the nation. Computer vision shows that Johnston’s ability to earn more than 1 additional yard after contact (per reception) ranked in the top 20 percent of my ten-season prospect sample. This is where the Green notes align, as these two receivers’ post-contact productivity is similar. Johnston is a true outside physical presence. Per PFF, his 19 forced missed tackles on receptions tied for first in the Big 12 and his 23 explosive receptions were tied for third.
The team that Frelund believes would be a great fit for Johnston would be the Houston Texans. Just put Robert Woods in the slot, and allow Johnston to work on the outside. Of course, that also doesn’t take into account how helpful Nico Collins, John Metchie, and Dalton Schultz would be for the Texans’ signal caller in 2023.
Johnston won’t be at the draft in Kansas City as he is not expected to go until late in Round 1. Houston could get him at No. 33 overall in Round 2 if this expectation tracks.
