Tesla vehicle insurance registrations in China last week jumped sequentially, marking the company's third best weekly result in 2024 and propelling registration totals slightly above last year's total. Meanwhile, a firm resumed coverage of Tesla stock with a buy rating late Monday.
Tesla insurance registrations in China totaled 16,200 for the week of Sept. 2-8, up 12% from 14,400 the previous week, according to data reported by CnEVPost Tuesday. With three weeks left in the third quarter, Tesla registrations in China, a rough gauge for deliveries, are up 25% compared to last quarter and have increased 15% vs. a year ago.
Tesla's year-to-date China registrations have turned positive after last week's result and are now up 0.2% compared to the same time frame in 2023.
Tesla stock jumped 4.4% to 225.79 during market action on Tuesday, coming back up above its 50-day moving average, after gaining 2.6% on Monday.
Bloomberg reported Tuesday the European Union will tweak its additional tariff rates on China-made EVs, dropping the tariff on Tesla to under 8% vs. a prior downward revision to 9%. That's on top of an existing 10% tariff. Chinese EV makers face higher additional tariffs.
Meanwhile, Deutsche Bank analyst Ed Yu late Monday resumed coverage of Tesla with a buy rating and 295 price target, 36% above current levels. Yu wrote that the firm "does not see Tesla as an automaker but rather a technology platform attempting to reshape multiple industries, deserving of a unique type of valuation framework."
The analyst added that while there have been near-term difficulties with vehicle delivery growth and softening margins, their view is that this is temporary.
Tesla China So Far In 2024
Tesla delivered 63,456 vehicles domestically in China while exporting 23,241 China-made vehicles to foreign markets during August. The U.S. EV giant's domestic unit sales grew more than 37% vs. the 46,227 sales in July, but are still down around 2% compared to the 64,694 total from August 2023.
Through the first eight months of 2024, Tesla China has sold 587,437 vehicles, down 6% compared to the same time frame in 2023. However, in the January-August period, Tesla has sold 388,000 vehicles in China, which is down less than 1% from those eight months in 2023.
Tesla China is benefiting from continued five-year, zero-interest loans to buyers, as well as increased government subsidies for EVs. These are currently running through the end of September.
Analyst consensus has Tesla Q3 deliveries totaling 458,000 units, up more than 5% vs. Q3 2023, according to FactSet. This total would represent the third best quarterly delivery total ever for Tesla, behind Q2 2023's 466,000 and Q4 2023's record setting 485,000 deliveries. Analysts project Tesla matching its record total in the fourth quarter, meaning unit sales would be flat compared to a year ago.
Tesla Stock Performance
Last week, Tesla stock fell 1.6% to 210.73. On Thursday, shares popped above their 50-day moving average and cleared a 238.22 short-term high, buoyed by robust China sales and the EV giant's full self-driving rollout plans. That offered an aggressive entry. But TSLA stock plunged 8.45% on Friday, back below the 50-day line.
Tesla stock is attempting to start up the right side of a possible cup-base.
TSLA shares are up 1% in September after declining 7.7% in August. Tesla stock has fallen around 13% in 2024, after rebounding about 60% from a late-April low amid some steep ups and downs.
Tesla stock ranks third in the 35-member IBD Auto Manufacturers industry group. The stock has a 63 Composite Rating out of a best-possible 99. Shares also have a 69 Relative Strength Rating and a 57 EPS Rating.
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