Tesla's 9% decline in global electric vehicle deliveries during the first quarter of 2024, combined with other data, suggests that there might be no growth this year.
Tesla-focused analyst Troy Teslike (@TroyTeslike / X) reported that "Tesla deliveries are not going well this year." In Q1, Tesla delivered 36,065 fewer EVs than a year ago. It is expected that in Q2, we will see an even higher drop—up to around 48,000, assuming a forecast of 418,000.
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Tesla sold over 1.8 million EVs in 2023
Tesla accustomed us to growth every year since 2012. The company delivered over 1.3 million EVs in 2022, and over 1.8 million in 2023, but there might be no growth in 2024.
Troy Teslike also said that the third quarter's year-over-year growth is unclear, while the fourth quarter "is very likely to have negative growth." We guess this is partly because it was a record one in 2023.
In other words, we have one negative quarter, two more negative quarters expected, and maybe one with some increase. If estimated correctly, the year would turn negative, potentially at 1.7 million units, compared to over 1.8 million in 2023.
Let's add that noticeably lower margins would probably accompany the lower volume.
Selling 1.7 million EVs in the scenario outlined by Troy Teslike is still not bad. The Texas manufacturer probably will remain the number one all-electric car manufacturer, slightly ahead of BYD.
On the other hand, Tesla has been able to increase sales every year since the Model S launched in 2012. So that's a big change and a sign of how challenging the market is right now. The capacity to reduce prices is probably mostly exhausted, too.
According to Troy Teslike, the main challenge right now is lower sales of the Model 3 in the U.S., probably due to the tax credit situation (only the recently launched Performance version is eligible for the incentive when purchasing). Another thing is lower sales in China.
We will see whether the gap is too large to close depending on the Q2 numbers, which will be available in early July.
There is always a chance that Tesla will surprise us with something and the volume will increase somehow.
