Closing summary
Time to wrap up…
The US economy surged over the summer, the commerce department announced on Tuesday in one of the final snapshots of the nation’s finances to be released in 2025.
Gross domestic product (GDP) – a broad measure of the value of goods and services – rose at an annualized rate of 4.3% over the third quarter, far higher than expected and its fastest rate in two years.
The surprisingly strong growth “reflected increases in consumer spending, exports, and government spending that were partly offset by a decrease in investment”, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Economists had been expecting the growth rate to slow to 3.2% from an annualized rate of 3.8% in the second quarter.
Economists said strong consumption had driven growth, while there was an apparent slowdown in investment in AI datacentres.
However, separate data shows US consumer confidence has dropped again.
In other news.
Tesla’s European sales have dropped again, as Elon Musk’s car company lost ground to Chinese rivals
Ryanair is to appeal a €256m (£223m) fine imposed by Italy’s competition authority for abusing its dominant market position to limit sales of tickets by online travel agents.
Copper hit a record high today, driven by supply worries and a weak US dollar
Shares in Novo Nordisk jumped after it won approval from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration for the first weight-loss drug to be administered orally
Denise Coates, the billionaire boss of Bet365, took home at least £280m in pay and dividends in 2025 despite a slump in pre-tax profits
US consumer confidence drops again
Ouch! US consumer confidence has dropped for the fifth month running, taking some of the shine off today’s strong growth report.
The Conference Board has reported that its US consumer confidence index fell to 89.1 this month, down from 92.9 in November.
A gauge of present conditions dropped to 116.8, the lowest since February 2021, while a measure of expectations for the next six months held steady in December.
After impressive growth in July-September, the US economy is tipped to slow in the October-December quarter.
James Knightley, chief international economist at ING, explains why:
The 4.3% annualized growth rate came in well above expectations, driven by a surge in net trade and solid consumer spending.
Beneath the strong headline, however, the data points to a clear K-shaped economy, with growth concentrated among higher-income households and tech-led investment,while broader consumer confidence remains under pressure.
Looking ahead, growth is likely to slow in 4Q as the effects of the government shutdown filter through and the temporary boost from trade fades.
Wall Street has opened cautiously as traders digest today’s GDP report.
The Dow Jones industrial average, of 30 large US companies, has dipped by 20 points or 0.05% to 48,342 points. Amazon (+1.3%) are the top riser, followed by UnitedHealth group (+0.64%)
The broader S&P 500 index is up 0.13%.
Some US goverment borrowing costs have risen after economic growth beat forecasts in the third quarter of the year.
Today’s better-than-expected GDP report may take some pressure off the US Federal Reserve to cut US interest rates as quickly as some in the markets had expected.
The yield (or interest rate) on two-year Treasury bonds is up 5 basis points to 3.55%, while 10-year bonds are up 3.5 basis points at 4.2%
Q3 GDP came in strong at an annualized +4.3%. Consumer spending (+3.5%), exports (+8.8%), and imports (-4.7%) were the big contributors. Yields up on the stronger set of data 2-3bps in response. pic.twitter.com/333xI9vor6
— Liz Thomas (@LizThomasStrat) December 23, 2025
Analysis: strong consumption driving US growth
Here is analysis of today’s UK GDP report from Heather Long, the chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union.
“This is the best quarterly economic growth in two years (since Q3 2023). The main drivers of the growth were strong consumption, unusually low imports and a little bit more government spending.
What’s telling is that the AI boom did not play a big role in Q3 growth. This was a quarter when consumers returned to being the key driver of the U.S. economy. While the trade distortions did play a role, real final sales to domestic purchasers still came in at a robust 3%, a sign that demand remains healthy even in the midst of so many headwinds.
Consumers did pull back a bit on autos and household furnishings, but they continue to spend across almost every category, including discretionary items such as recreational goods. This bodes well for 2026. If the economy can avoid widespread layoffs, most American consumers can keep spending.”
Updated
Today’s US economic data are distorted, somewhat, by the trade disruption caused by Donald Trump’s tariffs.
That’s because exports have a positive impact on GDP, while imports detract from it.
The Trump trade war caused a surge of imports in Q1 as businesses tried to beat the ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs in early April, followed by a slump once those tariffs were in (and also once warehouses were full of goods from overseas!).
Exports, in contrast, were subued in Q1 and Q2, but picked up sharply in Q3.
Navy Federal Credit Union economist Heather Long has posted the details:
Q3 GDP of 4.3% was boosted over a percentage point by the weird trade situation. (See yellow boxes below). Artificially low imports and "high" exports did make GDP look better.
— Heather Long (@byHeatherLong) December 23, 2025
But keep in mind: Consumption was strong in Q3 at +3.5%. (see green box below)
Bottom line: This a… pic.twitter.com/AMgpZObeVE
Updated
AI boom 'may have taken a step backwards'
Paul Ashworth, chief North America economist at Capital Economics, has spotted that investment in artificial intelligence may have slowed in Q3.
Ashworth explains:
Third-quarter consumption growth was 3.5%, up from 2.5% in the second quarter, with a surge in health care services spending driving a 3.7% gain in services consumption. Indeed, health care services spending alone added 0.8% points to overall GDP growth.
Somewhat disappointingly, however, business investment growth slowed to only 2.8% annualised, with IPP and equipment investment growth both slowing to 5.4% and, despite the data centre mania, investment in non-residential structures contracted at a 6.3% pace. At face value, that suggests the AI boom might have taken a step backwards, after driving GDP growth in the first half of the year.
Updated
Today’s US GDP report shows that consumer spending on goods and services rose in the July-September quarter.
Within services, the leading contributors were health care and other services. Within goods, the leading contributors were recreational goods and vehicles as well as other nondurable goods., the BEA says.
US economic growth beats forecasts in Q3
Newsflash: US economic growth accelerated in the third quarter of this year, to the fastest rate in two years.
US real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annualised rate of 4.3% in the July-September period, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis reports, up from 3.8% in April-June.
That beats Wall Street forecasts that growth would slow to 3.3%, and is the fastest growth recorded for the US economy since the third quarter of 2023.
Annualised growth of 4.3% is the equivalent of quarterly growth of almost 1.1%, much faster than the UK which only grew by 0.1% in Q3.
The increase in real GDP in the third quarter was due to increases in consumer spending, exports, and government spending that were partly offset by a decrease in investment.
Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased, the BEA explains.
Updated
The copper price rally is also being fuelled by fears that President Donald Trump’s administration could impose additional import tariffs on copper next year.
Bloomberg says the possibility that Trump will place tariffs on the metal has been a central factor driving prices higher, with a surge in US imports through the year thrusting manufacturers elsewhere into a bidding war to keep hold of supplies.
The US dollar is its lowest in 11 weeks against a basket of currencies, with the greenback hitting a three-month low against the Swiss francs and the Australian dollar today, as well as the pound.
Copper price hits record high over $12,000/ton
The weakness in the US dollar is helping to push the price of copper to a record high today.
Copper hit a fresh all-time high above $12,000 a ton in London trading, with traders pointing to a combination of supply disruptions and a bullish demand outlook.
Demand for copper, which is widely used in infrastructure and energy networks, has been rising this year amid strong demand for AI datecentres.
Supply of copper has been disrupted by the fatal mudslide at the Grasberg copper and gold mine in Indonesia, which forced its owner, US miner Freeport-McMoRan, to say it was unable to fulfil contracts to customers.
Trevor Yates, senior investment analyst at Global X ETFs, predict copper will keep rising next year:
Looking ahead to 2026, we expect the supportive supply-demand fundamentals to persist while the more favorable macro backdrop should further bolster the copper market.
The combination of a more dovish Federal Reserve, a positive fiscal impulse, and the potential for U.S. dollar weakness could help spark a modest recovery in traditional cyclical demand, enough, in our view, to push the market into deficit. In this environment, miners remain particularly well positioned, historically offering greater leverage to rising copper prices.”
Pound strongest against US dollar since 1 October
The pound has climbed to its highest level against a weakening dollar in almost three months.
Sterling is up almost half a cent this morning at $1.351, the highest level since 1 October.
The dollar is sliding on the foreign exchange markets as investors anticipate cuts to US interest rates in 2026, and probably more than America’s central bank, the Federal Reserve, expects.
Charalampos Pissouros, senior market analyst at Trading Point, says:
Despite the Fed projecting only one quarter-point reduction for 2026, market participants remain convinced that around 60bps worth of cuts are warranted for next year.
Novo Nordisk shares rally after Wegovy pill gets US oral approval
Shares in Novo Nordisk have jumped 7.5% this morning after it won approval from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration for the first weight-loss drug to be administered orally.
Yesterday, US regulators gave the green light to a pill version of the blockbuster weight-loss drug Wegovy, the first daily oral medication to treat obesity.
The US Food and Drug Administration’s approval handed drugmaker Novo Nordisk an edge over rival Eli Lilly in the race to market an obesity pill. Lilly’s oral drug, orforglipron, is still under review.
That’s a welcome boost to Novo, whose shares have almost halved this year as competition in the weight loss industry has intensified.
Stocks are sneaking up a little in London this morning, but we can’t really call it a Santa Rally yet.
The FTSE 100 share index has gained 14 points, or 0.14% to 9880, back towards last Friday’s near-record closing high of 9,897 points.
Metlen Energy & Metals (+2.5%) are the top riser, followed by JD Sports (+2%).
Ryanair to appeal "legally flawed" ruling and fine
Newsflash: Ryanair says it will “immediately” appeal today’s ruling from Italy’s competition authorities, which it calls “legally flawed” and “bizarre/unsound”, and the and the €256m fine.
The budget airline insists that its model of offering customers the lowest fares through its website benefits customers (rather than letting travel agents scrape details of the fares and then sell them).
Ryanair says this principle had been upheld by the Milan Court:
Ryanair, Europe’s No.1 airline, today (Tues, 23 Dec) instructed its lawyers to immediately appeal both the bizarre/unsound ruling and the €256m fine, unjustly levied by the Italian Competition Authority (AGCM), which seeks to ignore – and overturn – the Jan 2024 Precedent Ruling of the Milan Court, which declared that Ryanair’s direct distribution model “undoubtedly benefits consumers” and leads to “competitive fares”.
EU trade is becoming increasingly difficult for UK exporters, a new survey has found.
The British Chambers of Commerce has reported that 54% of British exporters think the UK-EU trade deal is not helping them grow sales.
This is a 13-percentage point increase in the proportion of firms who are unhappy with the deal compared to last year, the BCC reports. More here:
Bet365 boss receives at least £280m in pay and dividends despite profit slump
Denise Coates, the billionaire boss of Bet365, a self-described “ultimate gambler” and Britain’s highest-paid woman, took home at least £280m in pay and dividends in 2025 despite a slump in pre-tax profits, my colleague Rob Davies reports.
Coates’s Stoke-based gambling empire recorded turnover of £4bn in the year to March 2025, up from £3.7bn the year before. Pre-tax profits fell to £349m from £627m in the previous year.
Bet365 incurred a £325m increase in expenses as it reshaped its global footprint, expanding its presence in the US and South America, while giving up its sometimes controversial presence in China, where online betting is illegal.
Coates had already extracted more than £2.5bn in pay and dividends from a company that she began building in a car park in her home city.
Accounts posted on Tuesday show that she took a further £104m in salary, while her majority shareholding means she is entitled to at least 50% of a dividend of £353.6m, taking her total income from the group to at least £280m.
The deal is an increase on the £150m she claimed last year but falls some way short of her £469m record payout in 2021.
More here:
Chart: The EU car market
Today’s European car sales data shows that hybrid-electric cars (which have a fossil fuel engine and a rechargable battery) account for 34.6% of the total EU market this year.
Since January, 3,408,907 hybrid-electric cars have been registered in the EU, with growth in the four biggest markets: Spain (+26%), France (+24.2%), Germany (+8.7%), and Italy (+7.9%).
In addition, plug-in hybrids now makes up 9.3% of the market, while pure electric cars are another 16.9%.
Italy antitrust regulator fines Ryanair €256m over dealings with travel agencies
From cars to planes! Ryanair has been fined €255.7m (£222m) by Italy’s competition authority for abusing its dominant position in its dealings with travel agents.
The Italian Competition Authority imposed the penalty after concluding that Ryanair had executed an “elaborate strategy” to block online and traditional travel agencies from purchasing Ryanair flights on ryanair.com, or to make it harder.
This, it says, weakened competition from agencies and reduced the quality and range of tourism services available to consumers, from April 2023 until at least until April 2025.
The ICA says:
The investigation revealed that, at the end of 2022, Ryanair began to explore ways to hinder travel agencies. From mid-April 2023, these plans were implemented through measures that intensified over time. At first, Ryanair rolled out facial recognition procedures on its website aimed at users who purchased their ticket through a travel agency.
Then, at the end of 2023, when the Authority’s investigation was underway, Ryanair totally or intermittently blocked booking attempts by travel agencies on its website (for example, by blocking payment methods and mass-deleting accounts linked to OTA bookings). In a third phase of its strategy, in early 2024, Ryanair imposed partnership agreements on OTAs and, subsequently, Travel Agent Direct accounts on traditional agencies, containing terms that restricted agencies from offering Ryanair flights in combination with other services.
To “persuade” agencies to partner up, Ryanair periodically blocked bookings and launched an aggressive communication campaign against non-signatory OTAs, labelling them “pirate OTAs”. In April 2025, Ryanair made its full white-label iFrame solution available to OTAs. This enabled the integration of IT applications (so-called APIs) which, if properly implemented, make it possible to restore effective competition in the downstream market for tourism services.
Updated
New car sales in Europe rise for fifth month in a row
Overall, new car registrations in the EU increased by 1.4% year-on-year in November, the fifth monthly rise in a row.
ACEA reports:
Despite the recent positive momentum, overall volumes remain well below pre-pandemic levels. The battery-electric car market share reached 16.9% YTD, in line with projections for the year, yet a level that still leaves room for growth to stay on track with the transition.
Hybrid-electric vehicles lead as the most popular power type choice among buyers, with plug-in hybrids continuing to gain momentum.
That transition hit a diversion this month, when Brussels scrapped its landmark 2035 ban on combustion engines and brought in new flexibilities to allow carmakers to hit 2030 carbon emission targets.
Tesla’s sales didn’t fall everywhere last month, though.
The Norwegian market was a bright spot – Tesla’s sales in Norway rose 34.6% in November year-to-date, led by the mass market crossover Model Y.
That means Tesla has sold more cars in Norway in 2025 than any other automaker ever did in a full year, beating the country’s annual sales record with one month to spare according to the Norwegian Road Federation.
Introduction: Tesla's European sales fall again
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.
Sales of Tesla’s electric cars fell across Europe again last month, as the company’s annus horribilis continued.
European auto lobby ACEA is reporting this morning that Tesla registrations tumbled by 34.2% in the European Union year-on-year in November, and fell by 11.8% across the wider EU, Britain and European Free Trade Association area.
Tesla sold 12,130 cars across the EU last month, down from 18,430 in November 2024, shrinking its market share from 2.1% to 1.4%.
Tesla’s sales have fallen across Europe this month, amid a consumer backlash to Elon Musk’s political activism in the Donald Trump White House before the pair fell out.
It has also faced increased competition from rivals including China’s BYD, who had a strong November. BYD grew its sales in the EU, EFTA and UK by 221%, up from 6,568 to 21,133 units.
BYD is one of several Chinese carmakers using the transition to electric cars as an opportunity to dominate the global automotive market, backed by Beijing and regional governments.
And while Tesla struggled, the overall electric car market grew. In the first 11 months of 2025, battery-electric cars accounted for 16.9% of the EU market share, an increase from the low baseline of 13.4% in January-November 2024.
The agenda
1.30pm GMT: US Q3 GDP report
1.30pm GMT: US durable goods orders for October
3pm GMT: US new home sales
3pm GMT: US conference board survey of consumer confidence
Updated
