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Fortune
Fortune
Christiaan Hetzner

Tesla’s robotaxi service launched last week—but wagers on Polymarket are set to expire worthless

A vehicle Tesla is using for robotaxi testing purposes in Austin, Texas, US, on Friday, June 20, 2025. (Credit: Eli Hartman—Bloomberg via Getty Images)
  • Currently $7.2 million in bets have been placed on Polymarket, but the probability of Tesla’s robotaxi service meeting the criteria necessary to be judged a success is approaching zero with hours left on the clock. While this doesn’t diminish the company’s accomplishments this past week, it is not a case of splitting hairs—Tesla’s ability to rapidly scale service has yet to be proven.

Tesla’s autonomous ride hailing service went live just over a week ago with nearly a dozen robotaxis shuttling passengers in downtown Austin. Tesla influencers from across the country descended upon the Texan capital to participate in the historic event—assuming they were lucky enough to nab a coveted invite. 

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