The electric vehicle market is headed for a lot of uncertainty next year, but it's also growing ever more competitive. For brands just getting into the EV space, the sky's the limit and consumers are here for it. But for other automakers that have been around a while—looking at you, Tesla—putting some makeup on a seven-year-old car isn't exactly the recipe for success in the long run. And that's why Tesla is reportedly preparing some big product launches for 2025.
Welcome back to Critical Materials, your daily roundup for all things electric and automotive tech. Today, we're chatting about Tesla's robotaxi launch, the gas tax, and Jaguar's upcoming EV costing a small fortune. Let's jump in.
30%: Tesla To Launch Multiple Vehicles In 2025
Tesla has officially hyped 2025 as a year of product launches—something which should excite investors (as long as they ignore the possibility of Tesla spending some serious cash) and seasoned Tesla-watchers digging for aspirin. And that all starts with multiple new vehicles reportedly planned for launch in 2025.
News of the product launches comes from a Deutsche Bank investor note shared with InsideEVs late Monday. The takeaways from DB outline the firm's talks with Travis Axelrod, Tesla's Head of Investor Relations, at Deutsche Bank's Autonomous Driving Day, including the launch of a mysterious new vehicle dubbed "Model Q" and several other key product offerings set to happen during the second half of 2025.
Starting off with Model Q—a name which was penned by Deutsche Bank, not Tesla, by the way—the automaker is planning an EV with a starting price of under $30,000. Just to be clear, that price includes U.S. federal tax incentives, meaning that if those are wiped from the face of the earth during the Trump administration, the vehicle will likely start around $37,499 instead.
The specifics of this model are currently unclear, however, the report from Deutsche Bank mentions this vehicle separately from the Robotaxi (which it calls the CyberCab in the report). Keep in mind that Tesla CEO Elon Musk said that it would be "silly" and "pointless" to have a $25,000 EV that wasn't a robotaxi, so maybe that extra $5,000 is for pedals and other things meant to put a human behind the wheel. Either way, it seems that Tesla's cheap EV might not be dead in the water as expected.
That vehicle is expected to be launched, or at least debuted, during the first half of 2025. And that's not all folks—the second half of the year will have "other new vehicles released," according to the note. Yes, that's "vehicles," plural.
The second half of 2025 is said to bring a three-row EV riding on a longer wheelbase than the Model Y released today. The idea is to expand Tesla's total addressable market—meaning those folks who want a three-row SUV and won't consider a Tesla since there's simply not one in its lineup today. Could this be Tesla's "one more thing" that could drop with the announcement of the refreshed Model Y Juniper? Maybe, however, that particular vehicle is expected to be released in the Chinese auto market and it's not clear if or when it will make its way to other markets.
Deutsche Bank doesn't note what other vehicles might release during the second half of the year, only that Tesla is expected to launch "other new vehicles" during that time.
One last note is that Tesla expected to launch all of these vehicles on existing production lines. That means it's possible that Tesla's semi-permanent Tent City could grow even larger as it stands up new additions to its lines in preparation to tool up for these new vehicles. It also means that Gigafactory Mexico's future is looking ever-bleaker, though a tariff-laden future under the incoming Trump administration could change that.
Keep in mind that this could all be Tesla blowing smoke. The company's track record for hitting deadlines and staying with its plans is, let's say, colorful. And as Deutsche Bank points out, if Tesla wants to grow its volume by 30% in 2025 as projected, it needs to execute its operations absolutely flawlessly—which isn't exactly something that Tesla has done in the past. Growth and success are all hinging on things moving swiftly and smoothly for Tesla. Can it do it?
60%: Tesla Robotaxi Launch Is Going To Be A Learning Curve
Following Tesla's year of product launches will be the product that has investors really on the hook: the Tesla Robotaxi.
The Robotaxi, or CyberCab as Musk likes to call it, is Tesla's truly passive earner. Pop out a vehicle that costs between $20,000 and $30,000 to manufacture and set it loose on the world to deliver autonomous rides at the press of a button. Tesla believes that it can compete against rivals like Waymo and Cruise just by taking vehicle cost into consideration—that's not even talking about software performance versus Tesla's lack of complex sensors like Lidar in its autonomous vehicle hardware suite. But there's so much more at play here, and that's going to be the real learning curve for Tesla.
Deutsche Bank's note digs into the specifics of the Robotaxi operations and development which could prove to be roadblocks to CyberCab's rapid growth:
Tesla believes it would be reasonable to assume some type of teleoperator
would be needed at least initially for safety/redundancy purposes.
[...]
Management intends to start off entirely with the company-owned fleet and eventually dynamically adjust supply based on customer demand/traffic patterns.
[...]As the CyberCab rollout occurs in 2026, the company will need to make investments across its service/cleaning and charging apparatus (e.g., install wireless charging) with TX and CA likely the first states to see a rollout given proximity to manufacturing facilities and headquarters.
The analyst makes a great note regarding Tesla's current infrastructure. The CyberCab is ditching Tesla's NACS port for fully wireless charging. That should make topping off the battery a breeze versus the complex snake arm prototype that Tesla tried building almost a decade ago, however, Tesla's existing charging infrastructure isn't set up to wirelessly charge any vehicle, let alone a fleet of robotaxis. This means that Tesla also needs to update its infrastructure over the next year to overcome this challenge.
And it's not just about charging, either. Tesla's vehicles will have to be checked for cleanliness between rides and, if less than ideal, unsullied for the next rider. This could mean a team of actual people prepping vehicles like revolving doors.
Let's not forget about teleoperators either. As Tesla mentioned to Deutsche Bank, it's not unreasonable to assume that the automaker will need teleoperators to handle remote operations if something goes awry. Think of the Optimus robots at Tesla's We, Robot event, but on wheels and driving at speeds of 45 miles per hour. This isn't unheard of, though. Cruise and Waymo both have teleoperators and need them fairly frequently—but it's just one more tool that Tesla will need to add to its belt before this robotaxi thing can really get started.
Tesla does believe that it has an advantage over both of those competitors, though. As usual, the automaker critiques their so-called Lidar "crutch"—so much so that Tesla's leadership isn't even viewing any brand as "true competition" in the U.S. and Europe from a cost and scale perspective. Tesla instead believes that both Cruise and Waymo are relying on these sensor suites to "compensate for deficiencies" in their software.
Mud-slinging won't get Tesla past the tipping point it needs to solve self-driving, though. It's got just two short years before it needs to have its Robotaxis stop slamming into curbs and driving onto sidewalks. Is that enough time to perfect its software and prepare its infrastructure for a whole new breed of cars? We're about to find out.
90%: The Price Of Jaguar’s Type 00 EV Just Went Up
Jaguar is at a weird point in its life. The British marque has been frustrated with the move to EVs—which is odd considering it was one of the OG pioneers of electrification with the tightly-styled, albeit stagnant, Jaguar I-Pace. So rather than compete with the number of premium EVs out there teetering around the six-figure mark, Jag is going all-out and declaring its intention of re-branding as an ultra-luxury automaker.
That all starts with the recently unveiled Type 00 concept. I know it might look like some designers copied the ergonomics of an air conditioner, but this is Jag's attention-grabbing show of power—its "new species" of EV—in a market that is growing in competition. Its price? Well, Jag said that it's not rolling out of bed for anything less than $155,000 (120,000 British Pounds). Actually, scratch that. The price is going up.
Jaguar Land Rover CEO Adrian Mardell recently told Euro News that the true cost of its future EV will actually be closer to $190,000 (150,000 GBP), or around two-and-a-half times the cost of the outgoing I-Pace SUV.
The automaker expects to spend nearly $2 billion transitioning to electrification, and that plan includes taking an entire year off of selling cars in its home market. That means to break even on its massive investment, it somehow needs to sell more than 10,500 units of its ultra-luxury EV—and that's not accounting for the actual profit margin per vehicle.
In case you were wondering how much of a lift this will be, sales of Jaguar-branded cars in America hasn't exactly been great. Jag sold just 509 units of the $72,000 I-Pace in 2023, and 5,258 units of the $57,000 F-Pace (its best-selling model) in 2023.
Now, you have to remember, Jaguar is really aiming to shake up its buyers in this brand transition. It doesn't want Mercedes or BMW buyers anymore. The brand is just way too posh for the likes of them. Instead, it wants the folks who were considering Bentley or Maserati. But those aren't high-volume brands either—Bentley sold just 4,167 cars globally in 2023, and Maserati moved significantly more at around 26,600 units. Still, the point here is that Jaguar's market is quite limited and it will need to move some serious weight to make back its hefty investment. So perhaps a higher price per unit makes sense from that perspective.
The bigger question is if Jaguar can really convince buyers to divest from their current brand and buy whatever the final product of the "unmistakable" Type 00 really is. Sure, the concept is an eye-catcher. But so is the Tesla Cybertruck and look what kind of reception those owners are getting right now. If Jaguar doesn't get the buyers that it needs, it could spell disaster for the brand's future.
100%: What Would It Take For You To Give Up Car Ownership?
While Cruise and Waymo are seemingly looking to augment vehicle ownership in the big city, Tesla's move with the Robotaxi seems to be aimed at giving up vehicle ownership entirely. After all, if you manage to get the cost of ridership below that of owning a car, why would you own one?
I say this as someone who largely loves driving and holds the "you can pry the keys from my cold, dead hands" mentality toward car ownership, it would take a lot to convince me to give up my own car, even if it meant spending more to keep one in my driveway.
That being said, not everyone shares the same view. Some of you might live in a more urban area that has a better public transit system, or perhaps you rarely drive for another reason. So what would it take for you to give up vehicle ownership? Let me know in the comments.
