Pierre Ferragu, a New Street Research Managing Partner and Tesla Bull, recently put together a Twitter thread with some expectations surrounding Tesla's upcoming next-generation vehicle platform and model. We know Tesla is planning a new platform for smaller vehicles to reduce costs, but little has been shared to date.
Coming up in just a few days, on March 1, 2023, Tesla will hold its Investor Day event. While Tesla holds such events relatively often, some end up proving to be a much bigger deal than others. When CEO Elon Musk first mentioned Investor Day, we assumed, like many other folks, that Tesla wouldn't likely reveal very much.
That said, Musk has made it clear since then that the event is geared toward everyone across the globe. Since then, we've learned that Tesla may have big announcements to reveal at the event. Musk is expected to share his Tesla Master Plan Part 3, the company says it will talk about the next-gen platform, and hopefully, we'll get more details about the Tesla Cybertruck and refreshed Model 3.
We recently shared more about Tesla's upcoming vehicle platform, which the automaker has noted will be smaller than the platform for the Model 3 and Model Y. It will also be half the cost. This could be the ticket to Tesla's ~$25,000 future model, but we have no way of knowing for sure.
According to Pierre Ferragu, who's referring to the first upcoming model on the new platform as "Model 2," the next-gen vehicle will be critical to Tesla's success. He shared some insight about what to expect.
For starters, the investor says the new Tesla will be smaller, which we already knew. This also means it will require a smaller and lighter battery pack.
We also already knew that the new platform would save Tesla on costs. Musk shared in the past:
"The next-generation vehicle will be about half the cost of the 3/Y platform and it will be smaller. It will, I think, certainly exceed the production of all other vehicles combined."
However, Ferragu estimates that the Model 2 will actually be about 37% cheaper to produce than the Model 3.
With the smaller platform, smaller models, and smaller battery packs, Tesla will be able to produce more cars with the same amount of materials and effort. Depending on how it all works out, there's a chance the US EV maker could actually move forward making two future cars with about the same amount of materials, time, cost, etc. as a single Tesla model today.
While the next-gen Tesla platform and models may still be more expensive upfront than similarly sized mainstream gas-powered cars, they stand to offer much more in terms of technology and features. Ferragu wraps up the thread as follows:
Do you think Tesla can secure a gross margin of 30%? Will it ever sell an EV for $25,000? Is the projected sale of 12 million Tesla vehicles in 2030 a fair estimate? Scroll down to the comment section and leave us your thoughts on Ferragu's analysis.
