In terms of sheer numbers, you cannot say the Tesla Cybertruck hasn't been successful in 2024. Controversial, sure. But according to Cox Automotive's most recent U.S. sales data, Cybertruck's deliveries have made it the third best-selling electric vehicle model in the recent third quarter, outpacing even perennial strong sellers like the Ford Mustang Mach-E.
At the same time, having first debuted as a concept way back in November 2019, it has years of hype—and reservations—behind it. Can the stainless steel truck keep putting up those numbers after the initial reservations have been fulfilled?
We may soon find out. As we also covered in our Critical Materials morning news roundup today, users on the Cybertruck Owners Forum are posting some intriguing details about where the buying process is at in late 2024.
Users are pointing out that reservation holders are not only getting their trucks sooner than expected but that those who go to order a truck now are often being directed to buy the non-Foundation Series trucks that were only available at launch.
"I say confirmed because [Tesla is] now inviting someone like me, who reserved eight months after launch/first customer deliveries, to order and take delivery of a regular (non-Foundation) Cybertruck within 60 days," one forum user wrote. "Unless I am some special case (not), all the people on the reservation waiting list of 'over 1 million' or 'almost 2 million' (depending on who was speaking) that were there [in] Nov. 2023 have been invited for both Foundation and non-Foundation Series. And they are past that group and onto people like me who ordered only a few months ago."
The user added, with some speculation, "The multi-year pre-launch backlog has dissipated before the first year was out."
This trend was also recently highlighted by X user Sawyer Merritt, who often disseminates Tesla-specific information to other fans and owners:
Another forum user speculated that "the conversion rate [from reservations to taking delivery] appears to be pretty low right now. I think it’s a combination of the still-premium $80,000 MSRP, buyers waiting for a 2025 model and a wait-and-see attitude regarding a future $7,500 federal tax credit." (The Cybertruck is not currently listed as eligible for any federal EV tax credits on Tesla's website.)
"Tesla might be facing a demand problem for the Cybertruck in the next six to 12 months," that user added. "I predict that the $61,000 RWD Cybertruck may be coming sooner than we think."
Speculation is key here because Tesla does not answer questions from U.S.-based media outlets and tends to change its vehicle prices and specs rather arbitrarily, relying on social media users to spread the word about what may or may not be happening.
Gallery: Tesla Cybertruck Founders Edition
But what could be happening now is that the initial glut of reservation holders who most wanted a Cybertruck after years of waiting and could afford to pull the trigger—the Foundation Series models go for around $100,000—have gotten what they wanted, and Tesla is moving other customers into other variants.
Another forum user said correctly that the market for a $100,000 electric truck is only so big. "The market for an expensive vehicle is obviously low which makes me think they will start offering more incentives next year so could be worth it to wait," they said. "Very torn as I didn’t think I would even have to consider this for at least a year." Others criticized the post by saying they have faith the claimed 2 million reservations at the end of last year. Those reservations were, of course, refundable deposits.
But reservations and purchases are two very different things, and estimating demand for the Cybertruck from here is anyone's guess. Cheaper variants coming out will almost certainly help drive sales as well—although as we've pointed out, plenty of people have also been put off by the truck's price and specs being more and less, respectively, than what was promised in 2019.
Contact the author: patrick.george@insideevs.com
