Tesla vehicle insurance registrations in China rose sequentially last week, as demand in China continues to be a bright spot for the EV giant with analysts awaiting official fourth-quarter delivery data later this week. TSLA edged higher early Tuesday.
Tesla insurance registrations in China totaled 18,600 for the week of Dec. 23-Dec. 29, up about 5.7% from 17,600 the previous week, according to data compiled by CnEVPost. The fourth quarter ends and official delivery numbers are expected Thursday. Tesla registrations in China, a rough gauge for deliveries, are up 8.3% compared to last quarter and have increased 13.6% vs. a year ago.
Tesla's year-to-date China registrations, which lagged earlier this year, turned positive in the third quarter and are now up about 7.7% compared to the same time frame in 2023.
Tesla China has been a strength for the EV giant in Q4 while the company has experienced generally weaker EV demand in the U.S. and Europe.
In separate China news, Tesla's Shanghai megapack factory has been completed after seven months and has begun trial production, according to state media. Mass production will start in early 2025. The plant will package batteries from CATL, BYD and others for Tesla Energy's storage products.
Tesla Q4 Deliveries Upcoming
The EV giant has said it expects "slight" vehicle delivery growth this year. But with the end of the fourth quarter fast approaching, Tesla finds itself looking for answers with unit sales lagging in the U.S. and Europe.
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Tesla saw vehicle deliveries rise 38% to 1.81 million in 2023.
To top that in 2024, the EV giant needs 514,925 deliveries in Q4, far more than the Q4 2023 record of 484,507. Analyst consensus currently forecasts 498,000 vehicle deliveries in Q4 and 1.79 million for 2024, according to FactSet.
However, other estimates have Tesla's Q4 total coming in around 506,000 units.
Looking further out, CEO Elon Musk proclaimed on the Q3 earnings call that vehicle sales could grow "20%-30%" in 2025.
A note last week from Barclays estimated Tesla's total Q4 deliveries at 515,000 units. The analysts wrote this will keep the "stock's narrative momentum strong." However, the firm believes investor focus on Tesla's fundamentals is generally limited and that a light near-term volume miss "would likely do little to dampen" TSLA stock's rally, fueled by President-elect Donald Trump and optimism over autonomous vehicles and artificial intelligence.
Tesla Stock Performance
TSLA shares fell 3.3% to 403.83 during market action on Tuesday after sinking 3.3% on Monday, a fourth consecutive decline.
Tesla rose 2.5% last week after slashing initial big gains. Shares have been consolidating since peaking at 488.54 on Dec. 18, with the 21-day moving average racing to catch up.
Tesla stock is up about 17% in December and 61% since Trump's election win, as investors speculate that self-driving is coming soon, with the Trump administration easing the regulatory path for autonomous vehicles.
TSLA stock is now on the IBD Leaderboard watchlist.
Tesla stock ranks first in the 35-member IBD Auto Manufacturers industry group. The stock has a 91 Composite Rating out of a best-possible 99. Shares also have a 97 Relative Strength Rating and a 78 EPS Rating.
Please follow Kit Norton on X @KitNorton for more coverage.
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