Tesla vehicle insurance registrations in China continue to pick up as the EV giant attempts to reach record Q4 sales worldwide and full-year targets. Meanwhile, Tesla once more nudged China prices higher, but also announced new discounts. TSLA stock surged late Tuesday.
Tesla insurance registrations in China totaled 16,700 last week, up 2.5% from 16,300 the prior week, according to data reported by CnEVPost. These numbers represent the fourth full week since Tesla began delivering its revamped Model 3 in China. Currently the numbers are not broken down to show Model 3 vs. Model Y registrations.
Tesla Price Hikes And Incentives
Tesla also raised the starting price of the Model Y Long Range in China by $280 on Tuesday, the fifth consecutive weekly price increase on a Model Y trim going back to the end of the third quarter. Last week, the global EV company raised the starting price of the Model Y Long Range by $344.
However, as Tesla continues to raise vehicle prices in China, the company has started offering a $1,127 insurance subsidy for base-model Model 3 and Model Y vehicles in inventory through year-end, local media reported. The entry-level trims account for the vast majority of Tesla's China sales.
Tesla also is offering low-rate loans to spur demand.
Archrival BYD recently stepped up discounts on a range of models, as the China EV and battery giant aims to hit a sales target of 3 million EVs in 2023. Other China EV makers are rolling out new models at highly competitive prices.
Tesla already offers significant inventory discounts on the Model Y in Europe and the Model 3 and Y in the U.S.
Tesla stock gained 4.5% to 246.72, moving above its 50-day moving average, Tuesday during market action. TSLA shares have gained more than 22% in November ahead of the Tesla Cybertruck delivery event.
Targeting A Record Q4
Tesla is looking to meet its goal of delivering 1.8 million vehicles in 2023. With five-weeks left in Q4, Tesla China insurance registrations, a rough gauge for vehicle deliveries, totaled 88,500 for the quarter, down less than 1% compared to the same point in Q3.
With the Cybertruck coming at the end of November, the EV company unveiled its new Model 3 in China on Sept. 1 with official sales beginning on Oct. 19. Tesla started delivering the "Highland" Model 3 on Oct. 26 in China, with European deliveries also underway. The global EV giant also launched a slightly updated Model Y in China earlier in October.
Through the end of Q3, Tesla delivered about 1.324 million vehicles globally for the year, meaning the company needs to deliver roughly 4760,000 in Q4 to reach 1.8 million. That's 2% more than its record 466,140 deliveries in the second quarter and a rebound from Q3's 435,059. Tesla reiterated its 1.8 million vehicle delivery goal in its third-quarter earnings.
However, since Oct. 18, analyst projections have dropped. Wall Street consensus has Tesla vehicle deliveries in 2023 totaling 1.798 million, just below that 1.8 million target, according to FactSet. Meanwhile, Wall Street is currently expecting 473,000 deliveries in Q4.
Analysts' average 2023 EPS estimate has also fallen 7% since Q3 earnings. Wall Street is predicting 2024 earnings will now undercut 2022, with analysts expecting EPS of $3.87 — down 14% vs. the $4.50 view before Q3 earnings.
Tesla Stock Performance
Tesla stock has gained more than 17% in November, with preliminary Tesla Cybertruck deliveries beginning Nov. 30.
The stock is building the right side of a double-bottom base giving it a 278.98 buy point, according to MarketSmith analysis. Tesla stock is around 15% below its official buy point. However, there is a trendline running from the July 19 high that could offer an early entry, currently around 252.
Shares closed Monday just below the 50-day moving average.
Since the beginning of 2023, Tesla stock has surged about 90%, broadly outperforming the broader S&P 500 index.
Tesla stock ranks sixth in the 35-stock IBD automaker industry group. The S&P 500 component has an 88 Composite Rating out of a best-possible 99. Tesla stock also has an 86 Relative Strength Rating and an 88 EPS Rating.
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