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KIT NORTON

Tesla China Registrations Surge With Q2 Nearly Done. Cybertruck Hit With Another Recall.

Tesla vehicle insurance registrations in China last week rose sharply as the global EV giant looks to end the second quarter on a high note in China's competitive electric vehicle market. Meanwhile in the U.S., Tesla recalled thousands of Cybertruck pickup trucks due to windshield wiper issues improperly installed trim. TSLA shares advanced Tuesday.

Tesla insurance registrations in China totaled 17,400 for the week of June 17-23, marking a 49% increase from 11,700 the previous week, according to data reported by CnEVPost Tuesday. Vehicle registrations in China tend to be slower at the beginning of each month before picking up toward end of the month, according to local reports.

With just one week left in the second quarter, Tesla China insurance registrations are up around 14% compared to the seasonally slow first quarter but down about 7% vs. the same time period in 2023.

Tesla China deliveries in May came in at 72,573, down 6.6% vs. a year earlier and up 16.7% vs. April. The U.S. EV company sold 55,215 vehicles in China in May, up 30% vs. May 2023, according to data released by the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA). Tesla sold 15,230 Model 3 vehicles during May in China, marking a 33% year-on-year increase. The company's Model Y deliveries in China jumped 29% in May compared to a year ago.

Through the end of May in 2024, Tesla China deliveries are down 7.1% compared to the first five months in 2023.

Tesla Stock: Cybertruck Recall

In the U.S., the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) said Tuesday that Tesla recalled 11,688 Cybertruck vehicles because of a potential windshield wiper failure, which could increase the risk of an accident.

Tesla also recalled 11,383 Cybertruck vehicles due to improperly attached trim in the truck bed. The NHTSA said this trim could become loose and create a hazard for other drivers.

The Cybertruck recalls Tuesday come after Tesla recalled around 4,000 in April to deal with an accelerator pedal issue.

Q2 Delivery Outlook

While Tesla Q2 vehicle registrations in China are trailing last year's tally, analysts predict global Q2 Tesla deliveries will total 443,000 vehicles. That would be down 5% compared to last year's 466,140 deliveries. However, it would be a 14.5% increase compared to Q1.

The EV company is expected to report global second-quarter deliveries on July 2.

Tesla hit a record 484,507 deliveries in Q4 2023.

The company reported in early April that global first-quarter deliveries totaled 386,810 while it produced 433,371 vehicles. The deliveries included a combined 369,783 Model 3 and Model Y units along with 17,027 "other" vehicles.

Tesla's 386,810 deliveries tally in Q1 undercut even the lowest estimates and marks the lowest quarterly deliveries since 344,000 in Q2 2022. Since then, analysts have been reducing their delivery estimates, but the consensus figure adjusts slowly.

Tesla ended the first quarter with a global vehicle inventory of 28 days, up 87% compared to Q1 2023. Auto gross profit margins, excluding regulatory credits, came in at 16.4%, above expectations of 15.9%.

Chief Executive Elon Musk said on the first-quarter earnings call he expects 2024 vehicle deliveries to grow compared to 2023. The EV giant saw deliveries in 2023 hit a record 1.81 million. However, EV demand appears to be slowing this year.

"We think Q2 will be a lot better," Musk added on the earnings call.

Tesla Stock Performance

TSLA gained 2.6% to 187.28 during market action on Tuesday. On Monday, Tesla stock angled down 0.2% to 182.58. In June, shares have now advanced more than 5%.

MarketSurge charts show Tesla stock has been notching tight weekly closes in a seven-week consolidation. Investors could plot a handle  buy point, at 191.08.

Tesla stock has rallied since reporting first-quarter earnings and revenue on April 23, finding support just above its 50-day moving average.  However, it is still below its 200-day moving average and remains in a downtrend.

Tesla shareholders recently voted in favor of giving Musk his 2018 $56 billion pay package and reincorporating the EV giant in Texas, moving it from Delaware.

With the company's annual meeting in the rearview mirror, analysts are looking to Tesla's second-quarter earnings in mid-July. The company will also unveil its "robotaxi" on August 8.

Tesla stock ranks seventh in the 35-member IBD Auto Manufacturers industry group. The stock has a 52 Composite Rating out of a best-possible 99. Shares have a 20 Relative Strength Rating and a 62 EPS Rating.

Please follow Kit Norton on X @KitNorton for more coverage.

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