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KIT NORTON

Tesla China Registrations Jump As EV Giant Heads For Strong Quarter But This Weighs On The Stock

Tesla vehicle insurance registrations in China surged sequentially last week, marking the company's highest weekly total over the last two months as the EV giant looks for another strong quarterly performance in China to propel vehicle deliveries to record highs this year.

Tesla insurance registrations in China totaled 18,700 for the week of Nov. 25- Dec. 1, up 12% from 16,700 the previous week, according to data reported by CnEVPost Tuesday. Along with Tesla, other top electric vehicle producers in China saw insurance registrations climb as deliveries tend to run higher at the end of the month, according to analysis.

Nine weeks into the fourth quarter, Tesla registrations in China, a rough gauge for deliveries, are up nearly 6% compared to last quarter and have increased 14.2% vs. a year ago.

Tesla's year-to-date China registration, which lagged earlier this year, turned positive in the third quarter, and are now up about 7% compared to the same time frame in 2023.

Tesla stock fell 1.6% to 351.42 during market action on Tuesday as Delaware Court of Chancery Judge Kathaleen McCormick, in a late Monday decision, stuck with her January decision and once more rejected Chief Executive Elon Musk's $56 billion compensation package from 2018. As of Monday's close, it was worth $101.5 billion.

In a statement on X, Tesla said it will appeal the court's decision.

On Monday, TSLA shares advanced 3.5% to 357.09, as the stock has been consolidating around highs in recent weeks.

Tesla Deliveries

Meanwhile, Tesla continues to ramp up incentives, especially in the U.S., as the company targets record deliveries in Q4. The EV giant recently announced a year-end discount on local Model Y sales.

Tesla announced on Nov. 25 that customers in China who order and get delivery of any of the two lower-priced variants of the Model Y between Nov. 25 and Dec. 31 could receive a $1,370 discount.

Meanwhile, the EV giant also extended the five-year, 0% interest financing incentive for all Model 3 and Model Y vehicles until the end of the year. The incentive was originally set to expire on Nov. 30.

Analyst consensus currently forecasts 498,000 vehicle deliveries in Q4 and 1.79 million for 2024, according to FactSet. Tesla's previous quarterly high-water mark was 485,000 in Q4 2023.

Musk has repeatedly said he expects vehicle delivery growth in 2024 compared to the 1.81 million units in 2023.

However, Tesla on Monday told employees on its Cybertruck production line to take the next three days off, Business Insider reported Tuesday, citing an internal memo. Regular scheduling will resume on Friday, the company reportedly told staff.

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Tesla Stock Performance

Tesla stock fell 2.1% to 345.16 last week, which included a 3.7% jump on Friday. Shares have been consolidating around 34-month highs for the past couple of weeks.

The EV giant is on a 42% tear since President-elect Donald Trump defeated Vice President Kamala Harris in the Nov. 5 election. TSLA stock has surged in recent weeks in part on hopes that self-driving is coming soon, with the Trump administration easing the regulatory path. On Nov. 25, Tesla stock hit a high of 361.93.

Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives, a longtime Tesla bull, wrote on Sunday that Trump could "accelerate some of the FSD and autonomous initiatives for Tesla once he is in the White House."

"The autonomous fast tracking will be front and center for investors in this scenario as some of the 2026-27 goals for Tesla could be markedly accelerated to stay on track with the China timeline for autonomous currently underway," Ives said.

"We believe a Trump White House helps unlock the $1 trillion of autonomous/AI value to Tesla's stock as autonomous/FSD is likely accelerated starting in 2025 and a tailwind for Cybercab timing," he added.

Tesla stock ranks first in the 35-member IBD Auto Manufacturers industry group. The stock has an 89 Composite Rating out of a best-possible 99. Shares also have a 96 Relative Strength Rating and a 78 EPS Rating.

Please follow Kit Norton on X @KitNorton for more coverage.

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