Tesla vehicle insurance registrations last week in China declined sequentially, but the company is still trending towards its best ever quarterly deliveries total in the world's largest EV market with just two weeks left in Q3. TSLA shares popped Thursday.
Tesla insurance registrations in China totaled 15,600 for the week of Sept. 9-15, down around 4% from 16,200 the previous week, according to data reported by CnEVPost Thursday. With two weeks left in the third quarter, Tesla registrations in China, a rough gauge for deliveries, are up 26% compared to last quarter and have increased more than 20% vs. a year ago.
Tesla's China vehicle registrations in Q3 are also now nearly 5% above Q4 2023, the EV giant's best ever quarterly performance.
Tesla's year-to-date China registrations have also turned positive in recent weeks. So far in 2024, Tesla registrations in China are up 2% compared to the same time frame in 2023.
Meanwhile, China EV maker Nio is formally launching its Onvo L60 crossover on Thursday, with the Model Y rival is getting lot of buzz. The first model from the Onvo sub-brand is expected to price well below the Model Y.
Model Y sales made up 81% of Tesla registrations in China last week, according to data compiled by Roland Pircher, who tracks Tesla deliveries.
Tesla stock surged 7.4% to 243.92 during market action on Thursday — closing above its 50-day moving average for the eighth consecutive trading session.
TSLA ended last week up more than 9%.
Tesla China So Far In 2024
Tesla delivered 63,456 vehicles domestically in China while exporting 23,241 China-made vehicles to foreign markets during August. The U.S. EV giant's domestic unit sales grew more than 37% vs. the 46,227 sales in July, but are still down around 2% compared to the 64,694 total from August 2023.
Through the first eight months of 2024, Tesla China has sold 587,437 vehicles, down 6% compared to the same time frame in 2023. However, in the January-August period, Tesla has sold 388,000 vehicles in China, which is down less than 1% from those eight months in 2023.
Tesla China is benefiting from continued five-year, zero-interest loans to buyers, as well as increased government subsidies for EVs. These are currently running through the end of September.
Analyst consensus has Tesla Q3 deliveries totaling 461,000 units, up 6% vs. Q3 2023, according to FactSet. This total would represent the third best quarterly delivery total ever for Tesla, behind Q2 2023's 466,000 and Q4 2023's record setting 485,000 deliveries. Analysts project Tesla matching its record total in the fourth quarter, meaning unit sales would be flat compared to a year ago.
However, while China appears to be a bright spot for Tesla in Q3, deliveries in Europe and the U.S. are not expected to be as strong.
Tesla vehicle deliveries in Europe are down more than 16% so far this year, according to Troy Teslike, whose delivery estimates and Tesla data tracking are highly respected among retail Tesla investors.
Teslike has also posted to X in recent weeks that "Tesla is balancing out weaker U.S. sales with stronger sales in China."
Tesla Stock Performance
On Sept. 5, shares popped above their 50-day moving average, buoyed by robust China sales and the EV giant's full self-driving rollout plans.
But TSLA stock plunged 8.45% on Sept. 6, back below the 50-day line. However, Tesla stock found short-term support, and is now fighting to maintain support at its 50-day line, and may be attempting to start up the right side of a possible cup-base.
Tesla stock dipped 0.3% on Wednesday after briefly topping an aggressive entry of 235 Wednesday afternoon. TSLA stock has a 271 consolidation consolidation buy point, according to MarketSurge.
Shares rose back above the 235 early entry in Thursday's trade, amid a broad market advance.
TSLA shares are up 6% in September after declining 7.7% in August. Tesla stock has fallen around 8% in 2024, after rebounding about 60% from a late-April low amid some steep ups and downs.
Tesla has a busy October ahead, with third-quarter deliveries (likely on Oct. 2), the robotaxi event on Oct. 10, and Q3 earnings on Oct. 16.
Tesla stock ranks third in the 35-member IBD Auto Manufacturers industry group. The stock has a 60 Composite Rating out of a best-possible 99. Shares also have a 70 Relative Strength Rating and a 57 EPS Rating.
Please follow Kit Norton on X @KitNorton for more coverage.
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