Terrorists weigh risks to their reputation when deciding which crises to exploit − new research

Terrorists tend not to exploit humanitarian disasters, such as the 2004 tsunami that caused devastation across Thailand and Indonesia. AP Photo/Karim Khamzin

Terrorist attacks are more common during security and economic crises, but they decrease during humanitarian disasters.

That’s the main finding of our in-depth analysis of global data from 1980 to 2014. Looking at incidents of terrorist attacks during that time period across 169 countries, we discovered that perpetrators focus on what we call “ripe moments” – circumstances that present unique opportunities for terrorist groups to attack when the state is distracted or weakened.