Summary of the day
The French prime minister, Gabriel Attal, said “there is and there must be a French agricultural exception.”
Emmanuel Macron, the French president, said “we have asked to have clear measures on imports from Ukraine.”
Hungary’s Viktor Orbán reiterated that his government it is now open to providing Ukraine aid from the EU budget, as long as a unanimous decision would be taken every year to allow assistance to continue – effectively giving Budapest an annual veto.
Frustration deepened in EU capitals over Hungary’s position on long-term financial assistance to Kyiv, ahead of a key leaders’ summit scheduled for this Thursday.
The centre-right European People’s party group spokesman on budgets, the Portuguese MEP José Manuel Fernandes, said today that leaders should not give in to “blackmail” from Hungary’s leadership.
Daniel Freund, a German Green member of the European parliament, has cautioned that the EU should not link its quest to bring Orbán onboard with the Ukrainian aid package to rule of law sanctioning mechanisms.
The 20-nation eurozone has narrowly avoided recession after the region’s economy flatlined at the end of 2023, official figures show.
Kaja Kallas, the Estonian prime minister, said today “we need to press ahead with using Russia’s frozen assets for Ukraine.”
Alexander Stubb, a centre-right former prime minister, is the favourite to win the second round of Finland’s presidential election, according to a new poll.
Attal calls for 'French agricultural exception'
Speaking before the National Assembly today, the French prime minister, Gabriel Attal, said that farmers should be subject to exceptions, Reuters reported.
He said:
Our agriculture is a strength and our pride as well. So, I solemnly say it here, there is and there must be a French agricultural exception.
The prime minister added:
I am lucid in the face of the accumulation of standards, decisions that come from above and sometimes fall we don’t know where (...) Farmers also have doubts and await answers and solutions.
Draft summit conclusions: leaders to reiterate commitment to Ukraine
In draft conclusions prepared ahead of Thursday’s EU leaders’ summit, heads of state and government are expected to pledge to continue providing assistance for Kyiv.
A draft dated January 29 and seen by the Guardian notes:
The European Council recalls its previous conclusions and reaffirms the European Union’s unwavering commitment to continue to provide strong political, financial, economic, humanitarian, military and diplomatic support to Ukraine and its people for as long as it takes.
It also adds:
The European Council reiterates the determination of the European Union and Member States to continue providing timely, predictable and sustainable military support to Ukraine.
Nevertheless, there is still no consensus on the next phase of military support for Ukraine, with a planned 5 billion euro tranche marked in brackets in the draft.
The European Council welcomed progress made in discussions on the reform of the European Peace Facility and the increase of its overall financial ceiling [by EUR 5 billion]. It invites the Council to promptly reach agreement on the basis of the proposal of the High Representative to amend Council Decision (CFSP) 2021/509 and to finalise work on the legal act by early March 2024.
There is also still no agreement on long-term financial assistance to Ukraine, with leaders working to bring Hungary onboard.
Macron stresses importance of EU support for farmers but calls for clear measures on imports from Ukraine
The French president, Emmanuel Macron, said that European support for farmers is incredibly important and that the situation for farmers has improved over the past few years.
Speaking alongside the Swedish prime minister, Ulf Kristersson, during a visit to Stockholm, Macron acknowledged that within certain agricultural segments there are difficulties and more has to be done.
We must begin by looking at legislation in France, the president said, stressing that there’s a need to ensure not only major producers benefit from support.
He also said we want to have free trade but there’s a need to safeguard domestic producers.
Speaking specifically about imports from Ukraine, Macron said, according to Reuters:
We have asked to have clear measures on imports from Ukraine because today we have things in volume and quality that are destabilizing the European market, whether it comes to chickens or cereals.
Updated
Eurozone narrowly avoids recession as German economy shrinks
The 20-nation eurozone has narrowly avoided recession after the region’s economy flatlined at the end of 2023, official figures show.
Zero growth in the single currency zone in the final quarter of last year followed a 0.1% economic contraction in the third quarter, meaning that recession – defined as two consecutive quarters of contraction – was just averted. Economists polled by Reuters had expected the eurozone’s economy to shrink by 0.1% in the fourth quarter.
The eurozone’s two biggest economies both performed poorly in late 2023, with Germany contracting by 0.3% and France posting no growth for a second successive quarter, according to Eurostat, the EU’s statistical agency.
There was better news from the other two members of the eurozone’s “big four”. Italy, which had been expected to stagnate, recorded growth of 0.2%, while Spain expanded by 0.6% – three times the 0.2% forecast.
Of the smaller eurozone economies, Portugal grew by 0.8% in the final quarter, Austria expanded by 0.2%, while Ireland’s economy contracted by 0.7% – its fourth successive quarterly fall in 2023.
Spain to vote on amnesty law for Catalan separatists
Spanish MPs are preparing to vote on the deeply divisive amnesty law for Catalan separatists that enabled the prime minister Pedro Sánchez’s socialist-led coalition government to secure a second term in office after last year’s inconclusive general election.
While Sánchez argues that the amnesty – which he previously opposed – is needed to help Spain move on from the confrontations of the past, his opponents have accused him of hypocrisy, cynical manoeuvring and putting his own political survival before the country’s interests.
Speaking as the PSOE and Junts rushed to finalise the text of the bill amid enduring disagreements, the PP leader, Alberto Núñez Feijóo, said Sánchez was making a mockery of Spanish democracy.
He said:
This afternoon, Sánchez and the PSOE will carry out the greatest affront to dignity, equality and the separation of powers seen in a western democracy.
Feijóo also said the prime minister had turned politics on its head by “affording criminals the privilege of writing law and granting themselves an amnesty”.
Even if the bill is approved in congress – where Sánchez and his allies have a narrow majority – it will still have to go before the senate, where the PP has an absolute majority. Once law, the amnesty will be applied by judges on a case-by-case basis.
Read the full story here.
Stubb favourite to win Finnish presidential runoff: poll
Alexander Stubb, a centre-right former prime minister who is well-known on the European political stage, is the favourite to win the second round of Finland’s presidential election, according to a new poll commissioned by Helsingin Sanomat.
If the vote were held now, Stubb would win 57%, compared to 43% for Pekka Haavisto, a former foreign minister.
Europe sees decline in corruption perceptions index
The Corruption Perceptions Index average for Western Europe and the EU has dropped for the first time in almost a decade, Transparency International said today.
“The 2023 CPI reveals that anti-corruption efforts have stagnated or declined in more than three-quarters of the countries in the region. Among the 31 countries assessed, only six have improved their score, while eight have declined since 2012,” the organisation said.
The top scorers in the region were Denmark, Finland, and Norway, while the worst performers were Romania, Bulgaria and Hungary.
Rule of law mechanisms should not be bargaining chips, MEP warns
Daniel Freund, a German Green member of the European parliament, has cautioned that the EU should not link its quest to bring Hungary’s Viktor Orbán onboard with a Ukrainian aid package to rule of law sanctioning mechanisms.
As much as I agree with the EU taking a tougher stance on Hungary: Neither the Article 7 procedure nor the rule of law conditionality must become bargaining chips at the European Council.
There’s enough evidence in Hungary to justify the suspension of voting rights. There’s sufficient legal basis to suspend all EU funds to Hungary due to rampant corruption and a broken rule of law.
Member states should not imply to Viktor Orbán that he’d be off the hook if he drops his veto. Both tools are meant to repair the rule of law in the EU. They should be pursued no matter if Orbán vetoes Ukraine aid or not.
Estonian leader calls for progress on Russian assets
Kaja Kallas, the Estonian prime minister, said today “we need to press ahead with using Russia’s frozen assets for Ukraine.”
“It is not only morally, but also legally the right thing to do,” she said, adding that she looks forward “to discussing next steps with EU leaders this week” at the European Council summit.
We need to press ahead with using #Russia's frozen assets for #Ukraine.
— Kaja Kallas (@kajakallas) January 30, 2024
Glad my calls are being met with steps forward not only within the EU but also among the G7, including the U.S. Congress and the UK.
Prominent legal and economic scholars have endorsed the idea. 1/
Orbán reiterates yearly review demand for Ukraine aid
In an interview with Le Point, published this morning, Hungary’s Viktor Orbán repeated a position Budapest has articulated over the past days: that it is now open to providing Ukraine aid from the EU budget, as long as a unanimous decision would be taken every year to allow assistance to continue – effectively giving Budapest an annual veto.
We decided to make a compromise offer: fine, we do not agree with the budget amendment. We do not agree that we should give EUR 50 billion [to Ukraine], which is a huge amount. We do not agree that we should give it for four years and so on.
But let it be, Hungary is ready to participate in the solution of the twenty-seven, if they guarantee that every year we will decide whether or not we will continue to send this money.
And this annual decision must have the same legal basis as today: it must be unanimous. Unfortunately, this position is understood or interpreted by some countries as a means to blackmail them every year.
🇭🇺@PM_ViktorOrban in an interview with @LePoint:
— Zoltan Kovacs (@zoltanspox) January 30, 2024
"We decided to make a compromise offer: fine, we do not agree with the budget amendment. We do not agree that we should give EUR 50 billion [to Ukraine], which is a huge amount. We do not agree that we should give it for four… pic.twitter.com/Qv9cdcCWjC
Updated
'Blackmail should never be rewarded,' MEP says
The centre-right European People’s party group spokesman on budgets, the Portuguese MEP José Manuel Fernandes, said today that leaders should not give in to “blackmail” from Hungary’s leadership.
In a statement, he said:
It is not acceptable for one EU prime minister, Viktor Orbán, to harm European citizens – the 450 million European citizens – with his blackmail and with his blockade tactics. This political blackmail should never be rewarded.
The MEP added:
Today’s challenges require EU solidarity, backed up with concrete actions and coordinated polices.
Nationalism is not a solution. ‘Proudly alone’ is not a solution and, therefore, we ask that the Council decides quickly on the revision of the EU’s long-term budget, the Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF).
The EU budget currently lacks the financial resources needed to meet our objectives. It must be reinforced with enough resources to tackle pressing issues such as migration, for strategic investments, and to enhance the competitiveness of the Union. We also urgently need to confirm financial support for Ukraine in the form of the €50 billion Ukraine Facility.
'Patience running thin': EU governments grapple with Orbán's positioning
European governments are losing their patience with Hungary ahead of this week’s summit.
A senior European official said that member states are hearing different things from Hungary’s negotiator, János Bóka, compared to what the country’s leader, Viktor Orbán, is communicating publicly and that there is a belief that the prime minister is seeking to keep his cards open ahead of talks in Brussels.
The official added:
This time patience is really running thin on Hungary.
This person also noted that they believe Orbán is interested in trying to get more of Hungary’s EU funding unfrozen – but that this would be politically a “killer” for the European Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen, who is expected to seek a second term.
EU governments push back at 'unreasonable' Hungarian demands
With only days to go until Thursday’s summit of EU leaders, it is still unclear whether 26 heads of state and government can convince Hungary’s Viktor Orbán to agree to long-term financial aid for Ukraine.
A senior European diplomat told the Guardian this morning that member states are united when it comes to opposing Budapest’s demands.
I hope so, even though as usual he will try to extract as many concessions as possible.
This time, however, I hope that there is little for him to gain - Member States are quite united against unreasonable four demands of Hungary - and at the same time there are messages being passed about possible consequences for Hungary’s continued obstructive behaviour.
A senior European official, meanwhile, said the summit can go several ways.
Hard to say, I think all options are open.
Tensions deepen ahead of key EU summit
European capitals are on tenterhooks as leaders prepare to meet in Brussels later this week for a summit intended to seal a deal on long-term funding for Ukraine.
Hungary’s prime minister, Viktor Orbán, blocked a proposed €50 billion EU package for Kyiv late last year, prompting leaders to schedule the February 1 gathering with the hope of reaching a compromise.
The package, a mix of grants and loans, would provide a lifeline for Ukraine’s economy.
But while Budapest insists that it has proposed a compromise, the sides have yet to come to an agreement. Hungary appears to want a deal that would allow it to block the flow of aid to Kyiv in the future.
Meanwhile, frustrations are growing with Hungary’s leadership – and not just because of the Ukrainian aid.
Budapest is continuing to delay Sweden’s Nato accession, as the Hungary parliament remains the only legislature within the defensive alliance that has yet to sign off on Swedish membership.
A meeting between Orbán and his Swedish counterpart, Ulf Kristersson, could take place on the sidelines of the EU summit in Brussels this week.
Updated
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