It is Thursday night at the Aussie Hotel in Shepparton and Sam Birrell is trying to win over the crowd.
His is a familiar face to patrons at the bustling local pub where he is performing, singing and playing guitar.
It is a face that has, for weeks, been plastered across town.
"I'm part of this community," he said.
"I want to have fun with people here, whether it be through arts, through sport, the way I always have."
Three-cornered contest heats up
The Nationals candidate for Nicholls, Mr Birrell is hopeful he can replace retiring Nationals MP Damian Drum, who currently holds the safe conservative seat by a vast 20 per cent margin.
But among the sea of corflutes lining the electorate's streets, two colours are breaking up the Nationals green.
There's the blue of the Liberal Party – under the Coalition agreement, a retiring MP means both parties can run candidates.
The Liberals have put forward Steve Brooks, a Cobram pomegranate farmer and former school teacher who has moved to Shepparton to take a shot at the seat.
There is also the orange of independent candidate Rob Priestly.e
A prominent local businessman and former Shepparton deputy mayor, Mr Priestly raised his own campaign funding, refusing offers from Climate 200, which is backing other high-profile independents.
While he has not confirmed who he would back in the event of a hung parliament, he said he would negotiate the best deal for his community.
Independent belt threatens conservative stronghold
Last week, Mr Priestly confirmed he had been approached to run for the Nationals before nominating as an independent.
He is one of a growing number of independent candidates across the region.
The neighbouring seat of Indi is held by independent Helen Haines, while within Nicholls, the state seat of Shepparton is also in the hands of an independent, Suzanna Sheed.
It's this emergence of an "independent belt" that threatens to topple the Coalition's reign for the first time in the seat's 73-year history.
And it has led to a revolving door of senior Nationals politicians descending on the seat since the election was called.
Deputy Prime Minister Barnaby Joyce has visited four times in recent months, making various funding announcements – most costed under the latest federal budget.
Victorian Senator Bridget McKenzie has also become a familiar face around town.
Mr Priestly claimed this was a taste of the attention, and investment, Nicholls could enjoy if it became an independent seat, but Mr Birrell disagreed.
Coalition urges Nicholls not to vote independent
While the Coalition continues to brush off claims they are worried about losing the seat, they have been fiercely promoting the same message — don't vote independent.
They have warned voters that an independent would have limited access to funds, and could side with the Labor Party.
"We've got an independent who's standing for integrity and transparency but not actually telling the electorate how he's going to side," Mr Brooks said.
Last week, Deputy Nationals leader David Littleproud went so far as to claim if Nicholls voters did not elect a Coalition candidate to the seat, the Coalition would lose government.
Mr Priestly slammed this as fearmongering, and said it could only mean one thing – the Liberal Nationals are nervous.
"In this moment in time the parties are not representing the views of the community," he said.
Seat has history of Coalition leadership
Nicholls stretches across northern Victoria, from Yarrawonga and Echuca on the border, down to Shepparton, Kyabram and Nagambie and as far south as Seymour and Broadford.
It is the safest Coalition seat in the state, and has consistently recorded a conservative vote 20 to 30 per cent stronger than for Victoria as a whole.
This year, there is a crowded field of 11 candidates vying for the seat.
While Labor's Bill Lodwick ran second in 2019, it is feared he could be relegated to fourth spot this time, only nominated by his party a couple days before the Australian Electoral Commission's nominations closed.
The Liberal Party has history here – when it was known as Murray, the seat was held by Sharman Stone for 20 years until she retired in 2016.
"I would say I'm that candidate."
Water policy among big issues
All three candidates have been spruiking their credentials on water policy in a seat where the Murray-Darling Basin Plan is a constant source of angst.
Mr Brooks came out swinging, claiming he was the only candidate with a history of advocating on water issues – a claim his two rivals have passionately denied.
But while they differ on how the Murray-Darling Basin Plan should be delivered, all three agree on one point – the region will suffer if Labor's plans for the basin go ahead.
In addition to water, locals have a long list of familiar issues they want addressed, including cost of living, a federal ICAC and increases to aged care funding.
There have also been desperate calls for candidates to address the region's medical workforce shortage.
Independent calls for change
Mr Birrell claimed only a Coalition MP could get results for these issues.
"I think people look at the candidate, and look at the quality of the representative," he said.
"They look at my predecessor Damian Drum and they see someone who was very authentic, very honest, very well-liked and who delivered.
But according to Mr Priestly, it is time for change.
"Everywhere I go people are excited about the opportunity to have someone that genuinely represents the community," he said.
"Rather than being stuck behind a voice that sometimes is voting for things that are not good for us."
