Abortion will be in the spotlight for 10 states on Nov. 5 — the largest number of abortion-related state measures to qualify in one U.S. election.
Voters in Montana, Maryland, Colorado, New York, Nebraska, Florida, Missouri, South Dakota, Nevada and Arizona will all see abortion on the ballot, underscoring an issue that Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris and other national Democrats have made key to their bids.
And with good reason: Abortion is the top election issue for women voters ages 18-29, according to a KFF Survey of Women Voters released in October.
The survey found that 65 percent of women voters believe that the election will have a “major impact” on access to abortion, compared with 54 percent of the same group in June. That number jumps to 82 percent among Democratic women voters — a group that the Harris campaign has pushed to mobilize to turn out in the lead-up to the election.
Democrats hope the issue delivers voters to the polls on Nov. 5.
Voters have backed abortion rights on all seven abortion-related state ballot initiatives since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in June 2022 — even in states where Republicans control the majority of the state government.
“These ballot initiatives were put on the ballot by national Democrats to, you know, impact voter turnout,” said Peter Northcott, director of state strategies for the National Right to Life.
Still, this year’s crop of measures could be a harder sell, with advocates targeting a broader variety of states amid competing presidential election priorities.
“If people don’t have enough time to learn about the issue, or if they’re confused, they’re more likely to vote no, and even more, they’re more likely to skip the question altogether,” said Chris Melody Fields Figueredo, executive director of the liberal Ballot Initiative Strategy Center.
This year also marks the first time voters in a state prohibiting most abortions will weigh in on whether to reverse the ban through an initiative.
The slate includes:
- Montana — whether the right to carry out decisions about one’s pregnancy including abortion should be added to the state constitution. Montana voters defeated an anti-abortion measure in 2022.
- Colorado — whether to add a right to abortion to the state constitution and allow health plans to cover the procedure. The initiative will need at least 55 percent in favor to pass. Colorado voters rejected a measure to ban abortion after 22 weeks in 2020.
- Maryland — whether to establish a right to reproductive freedom including abortion in the state constitution.
- New York —whether to expand the characteristics protected under the state constitution to include pregnancy, pregnancy outcomes, and reproductive health care and autonomy.
“Every single one of these is incredibly important because you’re dealing with changes to state constitutions. Those are foundational documents. They’re changing one word, and a state constitution can have an impact on citizenry for generations,” said Northcott.
Nebraska
Nebraska voters are faced with two competing questions: whether to approve a constitutional amendment that would enshrine the right to abortion before a fetus can survive outside the womb and whether to approve a prohibition on abortion after the first trimester with exception for cases of rape, incest and medical emergencies.
The state currently prohibits abortion beyond 12 weeks of pregnancy, with limited exceptions.
Campaign contributions across the competing measures exceed $12.6 million, according to Nebraska Accountability and Disclosure Commission data as of Oct. 15. That number includes nearly $5.3 million from Protect Our Rights, which aims to end the state’s abortion ban and more than $7.3 million from Protect Women and Children.
Protect Women and Children has received about $4.1 million in contributions from Sen. Pete Ricketts, R-Neb., and his mother, Marlene Ricketts, according to state campaign finance data.
“Compared to other states, we have a very affordable campaign and strategy that we are able to implement, which is really important,” said Ashlei Spivey, a campaign leader from Nebraska’s Right to Abortion Initiative. “There are a ton of states that are actively working to protect their rights, and there are finite resources.”
Florida
The Florida measure would limit the state’s ability to enforce abortion restrictions before viability, about 23 or 24 weeks, or when it would interfere with the ability to protect the patient’s health. It will need to clear a 60 percent threshold to pass.
Floridians Protecting Freedom, the coalition supporting the initiative, raised at least $116.6 million, according to Florida Division of Elections data. The biggest groups working in opposition to the amendment, which include Florida Freedom Fund, Florida Voters Against Extremism, Keep Florida Pro Life PAC, Do No Harm Florida and Life First PC, collectively raised about $11.7 million.
The initiative has faced a complicated path because of litigation.
Abortion opponents have filed multiple lawsuits challenging the validity of the signatures collected to qualify for the ballot.
In April, the Florida Supreme Court ruled that the initiative could appear on the November ballot while also upholding the state’s abortion bans. Florida has implemented its six-week abortion ban since May.
In August, the state’s highest court ruled again on the initiative, this time giving the green light to include language on the ballot warning of the financial impact of the measure.
Florida’s administration has been active against the measure, and the Florida Agency for Health Care Administration warns against voting for it.
In October, the Florida Department of Health sent cease and desist letters to local media over airing an ad titled “Caroline” promoting voting yes on the amendment, arguing that the ad was a “sanitary nuisance.”
The U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Florida Tallahassee Division granted a temporary restraining order on Oct. 17 that protects the ability to continue airing the ads.
Reversing course
Missouri and South Dakota both ban most abortions with limited emergency health-related exceptions. Missouri also permits abortions to prevent serious health complications.
If measures on the ballot in those states pass, it would be the first time a citizen-led initiative legalized abortion since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade.
The Missouri measure asks voters whether they support adding language to the state constitution establishing a right to reproductive freedom including abortion. It has been subject to multiple legal challenges before the Missouri Supreme Court ruled in September that the amendment would appear on November election ballots.
Missourians for Constitutional Freedom, which supports abortion rights, has raised about $30.7 million per its Oct. 28 filing to the Missouri Ethics Commission. Opposition groups — which include Missouri Students for Life Action, Missouri Stands With Women and Missouri Right to Life Action — have collectively raised about $1.6 million per filings through Oct. 30.
In South Dakota, voters will be asked if they support a trimester framework to regulate abortion access. That model would bar restrictions to abortion during the first trimester of pregnancy. It would allow the state to implement physical health-related regulations in the second trimester and broader regulations during the third trimester so long as they do not interfere with efforts to “preserve the life and health of the pregnant woman.”
Swing states
Two pivotal states for the presidential race will also vote directly on abortion.
Nevada’s measure, if passed, would enact a state constitutional right to abortion while allowing the state to pass limits to abortions performed after fetal viability, which is around 23 to 24 weeks. Any restrictions must still include exceptions for medical emergencies. Nevadans for Reproductive Freedom, the coalition leading support for the initiative, raised about $9.5 million per Oct. 15 campaign filings. Coalition for Parents and Children, which opposes the initiative, does not have any contributions listed.
Arizona’s measure asks if voters support establishing a right to an abortion that would limit the state from enacting restrictions before fetal viability. It would also protect access to abortion after fetal viability when needed to protect the health or life of the pregnant person.
Arizona for Abortion Access has raised about $32.7 million, per state campaign finance reports. It Goes Too Far, the opposition campaign, has raised about $1.3 million.
The state has struggled with enforcement of an 1864 abortion ban, which the state Supreme Court eventually upheld in April. Lawmakers voted to repeal the law in May, and a judge paused enforcement of the older law until the repeal could take effect.
Arizona currently bans abortion after 15 weeks of pregnancy.
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