Your support helps us to tell the story
Ted Cruz’s chances of winning reelection to the Senate are narrowing, with a pair of recent polls showing that his Democratic challenger Colin Allred holds a chance of defeating the Republican incumbent in a tighter-than-expected race.
A recent survey of Texas voters, from Public Policy Polling/Clean and Prosperous America, shows Allred leading with 47 percent to Cruz’s 46 percent, after an August poll showed Cruz leading Allred by two points.
Those results have a margin of error of 3.5 percent, putting the candidates in a virtual tie.
Another recent poll from Emerson College/The Hill shows that 49 percent of voters support the GOP candidate, with 45 percent backing Allred. Six percent remain undecided. The results fall within the poll’s margin of error.
The latest results follow a Morning Consult poll that showed Allred ahead of Cruz by one percentage point - up 45 percent to 44 percent — for the first time.
No Democrat has won election to statewide office in Texas in 30 years, but the tight race is now drawing multi-million dollar spending from Democratic fundraising arms to send Allred to the Senate. It’s a shakeup that could reshape Texas politics and the upper chamber of Congress as Democrats fight to hold onto their majority in November.
The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) is boosting its advertising in the state by $79m.
“Senate Democrats are expanding the map and going on offense,” group chair Senator Gary Peters said in a statement announcing investments in Texas and Florida, where Democrats also hope to oust Republican Senator Rick Scott.
“All cycle long the DSCC has been preparing to take advantage of Sens. Cruz and Scott’s damaged standings in their states — and now our efforts in Texas and Florida are accelerating,” Peters said.
Allred and his joint fundraising committee had raised more than $41m at the end of June with another $10m in cash on hand. Third-quarter figures, due at the end of September, are likely to reflect a surge in fundraising.
“Colin Allred has earned broad support from Texans, and our campaign has clear momentum,” Allred campaign manager Paige Hutchinson said in a statement. “Ted Cruz is weaker and more vulnerable than ever because of his failure to secure the border, his extreme abortion ban that has put women in danger, his efforts to cut Social Security and Medicare and his record of only looking out for himself. ”
Cruz also appears to be taking the fight seriously, with campaign messages urging financial support as Democrats outspend him. The race is already shaping up to be among the most expensive in state history, with Cruz’s campaign on track to spend $100m-$150m.
“We’re being outspent badly, which is why the polls are showing this is a one or a two or three point race,” Cruz recently told Fox News radio host Guy Benson. “This race in Texas is a real race. It is a serious fight.”
Another recent poll from the Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation shows Cruz leading Allred by only three percentage points, 48 percent to 45 percent, nearly within the 2.83 percent margin of error.
Among Texas Hispanics, Allred has a commanding lead — 50 percent to Cruz’s 39.
President Joe Biden’s departure from the White House race and the ascent of Kamala Harris to the top of the Democratic ticket “has clearly shaped the contours of the race across the country – even in red states like Texas,” according to Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation board member Regina Montoya.
“The dynamism of the Harris campaign has had an obvious down ballot impact in the Allred vs. Cruz race, where Colin is now effectively tied with Cruz going into the final days of the campaign.”
Cruz and Allred have agreed to their first and only debate on October 15, less than three weeks before Election Day.
