The major contenders in the 2024 Senate race are using the dog days of summer to bolster their campaigns for what’s billed as Texas’ marquee statewide contest.
Incumbent Ted Cruz, a Republican who is finishing his second term, is seeking reelection and is expected to have a significant challenge from the Democrat who emerges from a contested primary. Rep. Colin Allred, D-Dallas, launched his campaign in May and is considered the front-runner for the nomination, though other legitimate candidates likely will join the race.
The Nov. 5, 2024, election will be a barometer on the political strength of Cruz and the viability of a statewide Democratic candidate in conservative Texas.
“Given everything, it’s a jump ball,” said University of Houston political scientist Brandon Rottinghaus. “This is a race where a scrappy challenger could raise a bunch of money and make Ted Cruz a national villain. That’s a prospect that remains, even considering how challenging it is for Democrats to win in Texas.”
Rice University political scientist Mark Jones said Cruz had the advantage but the situation for Democrats is not “hopeless.”
“It’s going to be a struggle. It’s a Republican state,” Jones said. “If you’re a Democrat trying to be optimistic, Ted Cruz, back in 2018, came closer to losing than any other Republican.”
Setting the tone
While Labor Day is the unofficial kickoff to the campaign season, the summer months are important for candidates not only to secure resources but also to set the tone for what could be bruising primary and general election battles.
“The runway for campaigns now is so much longer than it used to be,” Rottinghaus said. “They need to court donors and activists and develop a ground game. [That] has to happen earlier than ever before.”
Cruz is dealing with a Republican electorate that’s changing as more transplants flock to Texas. He’s raising money and building out his campaign team. He’s one of the most recognizable political figures in the country, so securing name recognition in the Lone Star State is unnecessary.
Still, Cruz must make sure he has the resources for what could be a significant reelection challenge from a Democratic Party rival. In the process, he’ll craft a reelection message that’s expected to warn against the policies of President Joe Biden and promote the need for a conservative voice in the Senate.
“If you’re Cruz, the way you frame this race is by the need to keep taxes low and stay on a conservative path,” Rottinghaus said. “Those are winnable issues, and he’ll obviously try to paint his opponent as being too liberal.”
Democrats see an opportunity to oust Cruz, who beat former Rep. Beto O’Rourke in 2018 by only 2.6 percentage points.
They see Cruz as vulnerable and will try to cast him as unproductive as a senator. Democrats will cement their point by noting that, in the aftermath of the 2021 winter storm that left millions without power, Cruz went to Cancún, Mexico.
Polls show many Republican voters support policies to curb mass shootings, such as raising the age to buy assault-style weapons from 18 to 21.
Allred started his campaign by launching attacks against Cruz, insisting Texans could do better. Over the summer, he’ll continue to project that he’s the antidote against Cruz and work to raise enough money to keep his front-runner status.
Other candidates
But other Democratic candidates are in the wings. And a competitive primary will make Allred spend resources that could be used in a general election against Cruz.
Texas Sen. Roland Gutierrez, D-San Antonio, is likely to join the Senate race in early July, according to numerous sources with knowledge of his plans.
Gutierrez has become a leading advocate for gun control legislation in the aftermath of last year’s mass shooting at Robb Elementary School in Uvalde that claimed the lives of 19 students and two teachers.
His Latino surname could get him support from Latino voters across Texas, including the Rio Grande Valley and El Paso.
He’s cast himself as a progressive, which counters Allred’s reputation as a moderate, pro-business Democrat.
“Allred’s argument will be that he provides Texas Democrats with the best hope of beating Cruz, whereas Gutierrez will argue that he best represents the policy preferences and ideological preferences of the rank-and-file Texas Democrat,” Jones said.
Other Democrats could get into the March 5 primary before the December filing deadline.
State Rep. Carl Sherman Sr., D-DeSoto, has been mentioned as a possible candidate for Senate. He’s a former mayor of DeSoto, former city manager and minister.
“I like his background. He was a city manager and the mayor,” said Grand Prairie Mayor Ron Jensen, a Republican. “I wouldn’t try to talk him into doing anything in the future. It’s up to him.”
State Sen. Royce West, D-Dallas, a 2020 Democratic candidate for Senate, said Sherman was a “good man” but a Senate bid would be a challenge. He said the state lawmaker, not well known outside of Texas, would have to demonstrate he could raise tens of millions of dollars for a statewide campaign and become known to voters outside of the Dallas area.
“It will be a rough primary, given Colin Allred is already running,” West said.
Sherman said he has “nothing to announce at this time.”
“I’ll continue to listen to voters throughout our state,” he said.
Already in the race with Allred is former Midland City Council member John Love.
Though Allred’s candidacy has some analysts predicting the Senate race will be competitive, national Democrats and Republicans are not expected to make Texas a top 10 battleground. But that could change.
“The Texas race isn’t in that group of the most competitive seats out there,” Jones said. “But when Democrats go on the offensive, their top targets are going to be [Sen.] Rick Scott in Florida, followed by Ted Cruz in Texas.”
