On an October day, Premier Peter Gutwein set a date for Tasmania to reopen its border, declaring the state would "not turn back" from the deadline.
December 15 was met with varied reactions ranging from joy about reuniting with absent loved ones to fear about the impact of COVID on the vulnerable.
In assessing how Tasmania has fared since then, Deakin University's chair of epidemiology professor Catherine Bennett said keeping the Omicron variant out of the state until Tasmania had high vaccination coverage played a key role in reducing the level of serious illness in the community.
All eyes on South Australia
Before our border reopened, Tasmanians were keen to see what would happen in South Australia when that state lifted its own border restrictions on November 23.
Like Tasmania, it had no active cases at the time – but only had a 78 per cent double-dose vaccination rate.
This was in the days of the more severe Delta. Omicron only became a "variant of concern" three days later on November 26.
A month later, in response to rising case numbers, the South Australian government reintroduced 10-person gathering limits and a ban on dancing.
After the first two months of each state's reopening, here's how each state looked:
Case numbers two months on from border reopening
Tas |
SA |
|
|---|---|---|
Cases in two months |
35,267 |
86,843 |
Cases per 1,000 people |
65 |
49 |
Deaths in two months |
10 |
63 |
Deaths per 1,000 people |
0.018 |
0.036 |
Tasmania opened border with a much higher vaccination rate
On December 16, 89 per cent of Tasmanians aged over 12 had received two doses of the COVID-19 vaccine.
For those aged over 16, the double-dose vaccination rate topped 90 per cent.
Tasmania had 13 deaths linked to coronavirus even before the border reopened, with 12 of them stemming from the north-west outbreak in 2020, shortly after the pandemic began.
Two months on, 10 more Tasmanians with the virus have died.
The COVID-19 fatality rate per 1,000 people has been lower in Tasmania than South Australia: at 0.018 compared to 0.036.
Vaccination rates at the time the borders reopened
Tas |
SA |
|
|---|---|---|
|
Double-dose vaccination rate (population aged 16+) |
90% |
78% |
Active cases in community |
0 |
0 |
But Deakin University's chair of epidemiology Professor Catherine Bennett said the reported infection rate in South Australia and Tasmania was "not that different".
"At their peak, it was 279 per 100,000. Tasmanian was 265 per 100,000," she said.
"The other measures in place and good compliance in the community – good enough to help keep infection rates in check whilst the booster is still being rolled out – all those things have helped keep overall numbers down, and that translates to less people with severe illness that gets them into hospital."
The early adoption of 'Omicron-style' protections – including the more restrictive definition of a close contact – was also a good move, Professor Bennett said.
"Not putting the effort on trying to cover every exposure site, but really focusing on those in the home or in workplaces or aged care places where you have the greatest risk – focusing the Health Department efforts in those areas has really helped."
Business has felt the 'unofficial lockdown'
It certainly hasn't been smooth sailing for all businesses in Tasmania since the border reopened.
Some have reported plummeting revenue since December 15.
Last month, go-karting business co-owner David Cutcliffe said earnings were down about $200,000 in what would traditionally have been his busiest period because Tasmanians were staying away over COVID-19 fears.
This was backed up by Google mobility data, which showed movement around retail and recreation spaces in Greater Hobart was down 20 per cent on pre-COVID levels.
Between mid-December and late January, movement was also down by 25 per cent in supermarkets and pharmacies, and public transport use was down 24 per cent.
The chief executive of the Tasmanian Small Business Council, Robert Mallett, last week said in his personal experience, older people in particular were doing less socialising.
"What's interesting with national conversations is we're not the only ones," he said.
"This exact same thing is happening Australia-wide, when doors are open and in particular even Western Australia where their doors aren't open, and people are taking things a little easier now that they've got Omicron within WA.
"That's been really tough, where we should have seen a really busy summer season."
With case numbers dropping, he hoped people would begin to visit shops and restaurants more often.
'Much less severe than we planned for': Government
The Premier said opening later than some other jurisdictions "stood us in good stead".
"We followed our public health advice, and over the previous two years we were very fortunate I think to have some of the smartest, most engaged public health officials in the country working right here in Tasmania," Mr Gutwein said.
"What we are seeing is exactly what they thought would occur and that is that we would see an increase in cases after we opened the border.
"In terms of Omicron, it's a much milder disease than Delta and so what we're seeing is while we have a high case count, the impact on our hospitals, the impact in our ICUs, and across our broader community has been much less severe than we originally planned for."
He said Tasmanians were moving forward with "quiet confidence" the state was on the right path.
Where to from here?
Mr Gutwein said an announcement regarding the use of the Public Health check-in app would come later this week, saying he expected it would continue to be used in high-risk settings for some time.
Professor Bennett said a lot of work was still needed to protect vulnerable populations, including in aged care.
Some evidence-based restrictions could be dialled up or down as winter approached or if another variant began circulating.
"We now know how to dial up the precautions, whether it's wearing masks or going back to checking in – those sorts of things that we might give up over the next month or two might then be the things we can rely on to dial up and dial down control so it's not as disruptive to school to industry, to our commercial world, to our jobs, to our livelihoods and our lives."
