Mel has been waiting for social housing for two years — her situation is now desperate.
She is frantically searching for a new place to live.
"It's pretty scary," she said.
Her lease ends in a matter of weeks, but because she is on a disability pension, her options are limited.
"The availability and the price … I shake my head and think, 'Well, I can't afford that'."
Rental vacancy rates are below 1 per cent across Tasmania.
According to an Anglicare report in March this year, only 51 of around 46,000 properties to rent across the country were affordable for someone on a disability pension, down from 236 properties the previous year.
Mel is currently spending the bulk of her income on rent.
After paying for power, she is left with about $170 a week for food and other essentials.
"I get more of the frozen meals, but I get very little meat," she said.
As for fresh fruit and vegetables, she "can't afford it, I just walk straight past it".
For now, though, her biggest concern is finding somewhere to live.
"For someone like myself that suffers depression and anxiety, it's really quite bad for us," she said.
"I could be living in a shelter or I could be out on the streets or with my parents."
Mel is one of more than 4,400 Tasmanian households waiting for social housing.
She has been on the waitlist for two years and said she was told it may take another five years to find her a home in a suburb near her parents.
Like 75 per cent of those on the list, Mel is categorised as a priority.
"We're talking about people who are in extreme poverty and extreme need and in many cases are in extreme danger," said Associate Professor for Housing and Communities at the University of Tasmania, Catherine Robinson.
"So there needs to be a real urgency in our responses to people who are on the social housing register."
Tasmania's Housing Minister Guy Barnett said he recognised it was a "very big number and it's a major concern".
"We need to do better," he said.
10,000 homes in a decade a 'tough hill to climb'
Earlier this year, the Tasmanian government announced a plan to build or acquire 10,000 social and affordable homes over the next decade.
The federal government is planning to build 30,000 social homes across the country over the next five years.
The need across the country has been estimated at 700,000 new dwellings by the Australian Housing and Urban Institute.
The institute's Michael Fotheringham said Tasmania's plans were "quite ambitious".
"Given the smaller population, [Tasmania] is well and truly keeping up with the leading states in that area," he said.
"We're really pleased that the government's making those commitments," said Danny Sutton, chief executive of Colony 47, a community organisation helping people into housing, employment and education.
"But we're not walking away from the fact that this is going to be a very tough hill to climb."
In the past seven years, 1,500 social homes have been built as part of the Tasmanian government's Affordable Housing Strategy.
That is about 200 homes per year.
If the Tasmanian government is to achieve its target of 10,000 homes, it will need to ramp up construction rates to 1,000 homes a year.
Tasmanian Greens Leader Cassy O'Connor said she hoped the government could achieve its target but said its track record showed historic underinvestment in social and affordable housing.
"They have failed to rein in short-stay accommodation, they will do nothing to rein in rents," she said, citing the proposal to construct a new AFL stadium.
"We've got a government here that has got its priorities wrong.
"Its focus for example on a new stadium which would be massively expensive but also take away construction workers that are needed to build new social and affordable homes."
"It's a very challenging figure they've set," said Kathleen Flanagan, a senior research fellow at the School of Social Sciences at the University of Tasmania.
A shortage of construction workers and supply chain issues are acknowledged by the Tasmanian government as a challenge to achieving its $1.5 billion plan.
Dr Flanagan said to achieve the target, "we would need a substantial proportion like 50 to 75 per cent of existing construction to turn over into public housing".
Mr Barnett said he has a memorandum of understanding with the construction sector "to look at the supply chains ... cut the red tape, looking at planning issues".
He said the government was working in partnership with community housing providers to build the houses, acknowledging that "we need to build more homes faster to get the job done".
Mr Barnett said there was $438 million over the next four years set aside to invest in affordable and social housing.
But Ms O'Connor is worried funding for the 10,000 homes does not extend beyond the forward estimates.
"We've got a whole lot of unanswered questions about how new supply is going to be delivered."
Devil in the detail
There are also questions over how many homes will be social housing and how many will be classified as affordable.
"Social housing is rented out at rents that are based on a tenant's income and their capacity to pay," Dr Flanagan said.
"Affordable housing usually refers to housing that is leased out at a discount market rent, and in today's market, those rents are simply not affordable for people on the lowest incomes.
"I would argue that 100 per cent of it [10,000 homes] needs to be social housing."
"It won't be 100 per cent, but it will clearly be a majority of that 10,000," Mr Barnett said.
He said the mix would not be known until mid-next year after the government's new Housing Authority begins operating.
The Homes Tasmania Bill is progressing through parliament, which creates a new statutory authority, Homes Tasmania, which will focus on housing and homelessness services.
The authority will be tasked with delivering the 10,000 homes by 2032.
Mr Barnett said the previous system for managing housing was "antiquated".
"We need a new system and a new authority that will adapt to the current circumstances, that will be agile, that will allow for input of the best brains in the building and construction sector."
Ms O'Connor said a new statutory authority was "not the answer", and the existing Housing Tasmania could deliver the homes.
The authority will also determine where the homes will be located across the state depending on need.
"We need it to be well serviced by public transport, we need health services to be there, we need job opportunities to be there," Dr Flanagan said.
Work is currently underway on some big social housing projects. A 26-unit in central Hobart is being constructed for 16 to 24-year-olds. A similar development is planned for Burnie.
In addition, a 50-bed crisis and accommodation facility for men is also under construction in Hobart.
Mr Barnett said another 1,500 homes will be built by mid-next year.
What about the homeless?
Dr Robinson said for some people, housing alone "will not end their homelessness".
She is worried the emphasis of the new Housing Authority is more on the construction of homes rather than the wrap-around support services needed by people experiencing the highest need.
"We need to make sure and hold the Tasmanian government accountable for continued innovation and drive and conversation around the future of supported accommodation services in the state," Dr Robinson said.
Mr Barnett said supporting homelessness service providers will be a key focus of the new authority.
"We need to make sure they're funded ... to provide those wrap-around services every year and every day," he said.
'A big problem here'
The Tasmanian government is looking further ahead, seeking input on a discussion paper to inform its 20-year housing strategy.
The Discussion Paper details the current housing challenges in Tasmania.
The state's population has grown by almost 50,000 between 2016 and 2021.
There have been 21,100 new dwellings built in the last 10 years.
The paper states that during the March quarter of 2022, there were 5,321 short-stay accommodation properties listed in Tasmania, about half were reported as not being a primary residence.
At the same time, the Tasmanian housing market has been one of the fastest growing in the country.
The median house price has more than doubled from $290,000 in the June quarter of 2012 to $626,000 in the June quarter of 2022.
Housing affordability has decreased.
In March 2022, 34 per cent of income was spent to meet the average loan repayment compared with 28 per cent in December 2011.
The median price for rentals has also increased from under $300 a week in the June quarter of 2015 to $450 in the June quarter of 2022.
The paper states the factors have"resulted in more Tasmanians than ever experiencing housing stress, growing demand for social housing and increasing rates of homelessness".
"Where we are now is nothing short of a crisis," Ms O'Connor said.
Mr Barnett said housing affordability and availability were a concern across the country.
"Tasmania is no different, but we have a big issue and a big problem here, we're recognising that," he said.
"I acknowledge that; I own it, and as a minister, I want to make a difference."
