Tasmania has reached its highest number of active COVID-19 cases since the pandemic started.
With 1,779 new cases announced today, the state's total number of active cases has hit 9,105, surpassing the previous peak of 8,764 on January 12, set a few weeks after the border reopened.
Health experts say the new BA.2 sub-variant of Omicron, which is more transmissible than the first version of Omicron, is fuelling the rise in most states and territories.
It comes as many jurisdictions, including Tasmania, ease public health restrictions.
Here's what we know about the new sub-variant, and how it is changing the situation in Tasmania.
Why are the cases going up?
Up until a few days ago, Tasmania had seen a steady flow of daily cases between 800 and 1,000.
But in the past three days, daily case numbers have gone up significantly.
Tasmania's Public Health director Mark Veitch last Friday said that was due to the new Omicron sub-variant, which accounted for more than half of new cases detected in the state's north and south.
"We know that the BA.2 strain of Omicron is now widespread in Tasmania," he said.
The University of South Australia's chair of biostatistics and epidemiology, Adrian Esterman, said as the "second wave" of Omicron made its way around the community, Tasmania's daily cases were likely to "skyrocket".
Professor Esterman said most Australian states were seeing a similar trend.
"In New South Wales, for example, there's a rapid rise in cases again, starting towards the second peak for Omicron," he said.
He said only the Northern Territory was lagging — and that was because the first Omicron wave hit the territory later than the rest of the country.
"All states and territories will eventually get hit by BA.2," he said.
How severe is BA.2?
It is up to 40 per cent more transmissible than the BA.1 variant, Professor Esterman said.
"It has roughly the same level of severity, so that you're getting roughly the same percentage of people ending up in hospital," he said.
But with many more cases a day, that will mean the number of people in hospital will rise.
He said the virus was "starting to approach the contagiousness" of the current most infectious disease — measles.
The good news is that having had the BA.1 sub-variant does give "some protection" against BA.2, Professor Esterman said.
However, to further limit the likelihood of catching BA.2, three COVID-19 vaccine shots were required.
"Two doses of vaccine give you no protection whatsoever against infection, but do give you some protection against serious illness," he said.
"Three doses give you about 70 per cent protection against infection and much higher protection against serious illness."
Professor Esterman said Australia was in a fortunate position whereby much of the population was vaccinated.
"Ninety-five per cent of the Australian population has had two doses. You can't do much better than that," he said.
But the easing of the restrictions at the time when a more infectious variant was making its way across the community did not bode well for curbing community transmission.
Why are we easing restrictions?
Most states and territories have been removing the public health measures, which Professor Esterman says will "accelerate the increase in numbers even further".
Just weeks ago, the Tasmanian government lifted restrictions on mask use, allowing people to visit hospitality and sport venues, beauticians, offices, churches, and many other venues without one.
Wearing a mask would have little impact on the business sector, but would help protect members of the community from the potentially deadly virus, he argued.
"Businesses can function perfectly well with their clients wearing a face mask, neither would hand sanitisers really impact much on business," he said.
"So why on Earth, in the face of a new sub-variant that's causing case numbers to go up like a rocket, wouldn't governments retain at least those two measures?"
Tasmanian Small Business Council CEO Robert Mallett said business owners were finding the rise in cases "concerning" but most were not in favour of bringing the mask mandate back.
"I know some businesses have on their front door 'to enter our business, we'd like you to wear a mask' — that's entirely their prerogative to do that."
Tasmanians can book a vaccination on the coronavirus.tas.gov.au website.
Here are some of the latest Tasmanian COVID-19 stories:
- Tasmania's child vaccination rate has hit a wall and authorities are desperate to find out why
- Tasmania's mask rules change again — here's where you're allowed to take it off
- Cruise ship return cannot come fast enough for Tasmanian retailers
- Anne has been a relief teacher for years but this time she is staying away from the classroom
