While a slightly higher percentage of Tasmania's population will live in Greater Hobart by 2033, the state will still have trouble bucking its unique north-south divide, new population data shows.
Data from the federal government's Centre for Population has projected how much each state and territory will grow over the next decade and how that will happen.
Tasmania can expect an extra 79,000 residents by 2033, driven primarily by overseas migration.
Acting Premier Michael Ferguson said he was pleased about the population projections, which would see the state reach its growth target 15 years early.
A Department of State Growth strategy document from 2015 targets a state population of 650,000 by 2050, compared to the 646,000 by 2032-33 in the new population forecast.
The state government last year flagged overhauling the strategy and said its population target for 2030 was 570,000 people.
"We have a population strategy and it's working," Mr Ferguson said.
"Because of the recent improvements, we're going to rewrite the strategy and that will include long-term planning around our infrastructure needs so we can have the benefits of a growing population but without the pressures."
Regional Tasmania still where most people will live
The new population data shows that, as of June 2021, Tasmania had the least-centralised population of all the states, with 44 per cent of people living in Greater Hobart.
That metropolitan-regional split is predicted to shift only slightly in the next 10 years.
Hobart's population is expected to increase to just shy of 300,000 — with the capital needing to find space for an extra 44,000 residents.
However, everywhere else in Tasmania will reach a population of around 350,000.
At that rate, 46 per cent of the state will live in Hobart, with the majority living in the regions.
By contrast, half of all Queenslanders are predicted to be living in Brisbane while, on the other end of the spectrum, more than 80 per cent of Western Australia's population will be concentrated in Perth.
University of Adelaide population policy expert Adam Graycar said having such a dispersed population could be both a blessing and a curse.
"You can't replicate all the benefits of a capital city across the state. For example, you can't have all the specialised skills in every locality or a whizz-bang teaching hospital in every locality," Professor Graycar said.
"There are costs involved in the form of greater investment in transport, as well as greater individual costs for people in regional communities.
"On the other hand, living in a smaller community often has great social-cohesion benefits and, until relatively recently, lower housing costs."
Tasmanians will be ageing
The other major factor in the state's demography will be age.
By 2033, the data shows, the median age in Tasmania will be 41.6 — the second-oldest in the country.
That age rises to 44.4 if only regional areas are considered.
It is exacerbated by the decline of the rate of natural increase, that is, the number of births versus the number of deaths.
"In Tasmania, roughly 6,000 people are born each year and roughly 4,000 die, so the difference is very small," Professor Graycar said.
"In New South Wales, the difference is much larger, around 100,000 people are born and 50,000 die."
Professor Graycar said the decline in natural increase will leave Tasmania reliant on overseas migration, which should be managed by a population minister.
"Many of the policy levers are pulled by the Commonwealth government — like the migration size, the nature and costs of visas — but the states have to push for the sort of migrants that make their states better," he said.
"What we've seen, over time, is the biggest states are quite ambivalent about migration because they're facing infrastructure pressures and growing enormously, so that creates a two-speed migration program.
"People want to go to the larger states and they may not know about the smaller states, although the smaller ones need them more, and we need a mechanism to deal with all of this."
GP crisis 'must be fixed'
Menzies Institute for Medical Research researcher into health system sustainability Martin Hensher said that, while the state had distinguishing features, it faced many of the same challenges as other states, particularly when it came to health services.
He said the primary care system in Tasmania, and across the country, was already in a "perilous" state and needed overhauling.
"If we're going to have more people in the state, we very straightforwardly need more services. So there's a quantity problem," he said.
"Especially with our decentralised population and the number of people living in small towns, we have to fix the crisis in general practice and primary care.
"While we see enormous pressure on hospitals, that's a symptom of us not having the level of access to primary healthcare that we really need."
While Mr Hensher suggested a sweeping review of the way general practice worked — including Medicare — he said some things, like access to specialist services, were likely to remain based in urban areas.
"The reality is, in all countries, specialist services end up concentrated in cities and major towns … there's no realistic point to having an oncologist in a small country town," he said.
"What you can look at is what are really clever ways of connecting people in regional Tasmania with those services? How can we use telehealth intelligently? How can we use good outreach models?
"And, obviously, how much of this can be planned for now, before all these people arrive?"
Editor's note 6/1/23: An earlier version of this story said Tasmania's population was forecast to increase by 150,000 over the next decade. This is incorrect. The correct figure is 79,000.
