Tarik Skubal is set to be out a while.
ESPN’s Jeff Passan is reporting the Tigers’ ace will undergo surgery to remove loose bodies in his left elbow. The typical recovery time for that type of surgery is two to three months. It's a major blow to Detroit, but also to the two-time reigning American League Cy Young winner, who will become a free agent after the season. The 29-year-old was expected to garner the largest contract ever given to a pitcher, but that will now be totally dependent on his health.
Skubal had begun the season 3–2 with a 2.70 ERA, a 0.95 WHIP, and 45 strikeouts against six walks in 43 1/3 innings. He'll join Casey Mize and Justin Verlander as Tigers starters on the IL.
Detroit is 18–17 and sits in first place in the AL Central, but will need to make do without its ace for the next few months.
Tarik Skubal injury history
This isn’t Skubal’s first elbow injury. He had Tommy John surgery back in 2016 while pitching for Seattle University. In August of 2022, he had surgery on the flexor tendon in his left arm, which ended his season and sidelined him for nearly a year.
Since returning from surgery in July 2023, Skubal has been baseball’s best pitcher. In that time, he ranks first among qualified pitchers in fWAR (17.5), four full points higher than Cristopher Sánchez, who is second at 13.5. He is also first in ERA (2.41), WHIP (0.91), FIP (2.37), strikeouts (616), strikeout rate (31.2%) and third in walk rate (4.5%). He has been staggeringly dominant.
There were performance-based signs that Skubal was injured during his last start. He went seven strong innings against the Braves, allowing two runs on five hits with seven strikeouts. By his standards, he did struggle against the Brewers on April 23, when he allowed four runs on seven hits in six innings, but nothing was alarming.
This winter, Skubal won his arbitration case against the Tigers and was awarded a record $32 million for his final season before free agency. The two sides have been nowhere close in talks over a contract extension, and Skubal is represented by superagent Scott Boras, who will no doubt take him to free agency to start a bidding war. Detroit seemed to move on with its future by signing Framber Valdez to a three-year, $115 million deal in February.
Tarik Skubal trade rumors
Given the lack of a long-term extension, Skubal has been consistently mentioned in trade rumors. With this injury, those rumors will begin to subside as he wouldn’t return until July at the earliest and August at the latest. That would make him an unlikely candidate to be moved, as contenders will need immediate help and would be unlikely to send the massive package it would take to get Skubal while he's still working his way back.
If the Tigers can remain in contention until he returns, Skubal will be getting back in time to help them for the stretch run. It will almost certainly be his final few months in Detroit as he's widely expected to go elsewhere as a free agent.
It’s highly unlikely Skubal is traded this season.
How Tarik Skubal’s injury impacts free agency
While Skubal should be fully healed heading into free agency, it would be foolish to think it won’t impact his status at all. Teams will do extra due dilligence on his health before committing what was projected to be a 10-year, $400 million deal.
This isn’t Tommy John surgery, but it will be Skubal’s third elbow surgery. That’s a red flag. That said, there is no doubt teams will be willing to bet on his on-field track record over the past few years, especially following what is a largely routine surgery. These days, every pitcher carries a serious injury risk so every contract is a gamble.
Another thing helping Skubal is pitching free agent class that is relatively thin at the top. Freddy Peralta is the only other arm that could get an ace-level contract. Kevin Gausman should get a solid deal, but he’s 35, while Michael King can opt-out of his deal with the Padres but doesn’t have an ace pedigree.
Skubal’s position at the top of the market will push him to the biggest deal for a pitcher in MLB history regardless of his elbow issues.
More MLB from Sports Illustrated
- Yankees Announcer Michael Kay Honored John Sterling With Fitting Aaron Judge Home Run Call
- Remembering Our Favorite John Sterling Yankees Home Run Calls
- Marcelo Mayer Takes Exception to Teammate Blaming Red Sox Woes on Young Players
- How Don Mattingly Became the Phillies' New Interim Manager
This article was originally published on www.si.com as How Tarik Skubal's Injury Impacts Trade Value, Free Agency.
