In February, when Donald Trump was directing his opening tariff salvo at Canada and Mexico, Diageo reckoned it could be looking at a $200m (then £161m) hit to profits in just four months. An annualised rate of $600m was large but you can understand why: Canadian whisky and Mexican tequila are big sellers for Diageo into the US.
Thus Monday’s number of $150m, after a few more spins of Trump’s tariff dial, could almost be considered cheery news. This one is for a full 12 months, note, and the makeup has changed entirely. The original 25% Canadian and Mexican tariffs have gone (at least on the latest iteration) but 10% on UK and EU exports to the US have entered the frame. Bad news for Guinness and scotch whisky, where Diageo’s well-stocked cabinet is led by Johnnie Walker, but the overall picture for the group is better. And Diageo thinks it will be able to “mitigate” about half of the impact permanently.
