Consumers hoping for relief from potential tariff refunds are unlikely to see any meaningful financial benefit as companies signal they intend to keep any repayments rather than pass them through to households, according to the latest CNBC CFO Council survey.
The backdrop to this development stems from earlier court rulings that struck down parts of President Donald Trump's tariff agenda, with a federal judge subsequently ordering the government to prepare for potential repayments to importers who had paid the duties. However, despite the possibility of billions in refunds being issued, corporate decision-makers appear unwilling to share any upside with consumers.
The CNBC CFO Council survey, which polled chief financial officers at large U.S. companies between March 23 and April 2, showed that 12 out of 25 executives said their firms would apply for tariff refunds.
However, none of those surveyed indicated that they plan to pass any portion of those refunds on to customers. On the same note, six respondents said they would not share any of the funds at all, while seven remained uncertain, and 12 said the issue was not applicable to their operations.
Meanwhile, expectations around timing remain cautious. As reported by the CNBC CFO Council survey video briefing, several executives believe it could take a year or longer for any repayments to materialize, with only a small number anticipating refunds within the current year.
Economists suggest this stance is not surprising. According to Moody's chief economist Mark Zandi, companies have already absorbed significant costs from tariffs, including higher input prices, supply chain adjustments, and long-term pricing recalibrations. Furthermore, Zandi noted that firms may view any potential refund less as a windfall and more as partial compensation for earlier financial strain, making it more likely that the funds remain within corporate balance sheets.
On the same issue, tariffs are widely understood in economic literature to function as taxes on imports, typically paid by domestic companies and often passed through to consumers in the form of higher prices. As noted in research from the Peterson Institute for International Economics, such measures tend to have inflationary effects, particularly in economies heavily reliant on global supply chains. However, even if tariffs are later reversed or refunded, the price increases they trigger do not automatically unwind, which further reduces the likelihood of consumer compensation.
Meanwhile, the legal and political situation remains unsettled. As reported by Reuters, the broader tariff framework continues to face judicial scrutiny, while alternative tariff mechanisms have been introduced under separate legal provisions. At the same time, lawmakers have floated several rebate-style proposals intended to return tariff revenue to households, although none have advanced beyond committee stages.
According to USA Today, which cited Stephen Kates, a financial analyst at Bankrate, the likelihood of consumers receiving direct tariff refunds remains low, as shoppers were not the entities that paid the duties in the first place.
Moreover, proposals such as the American Worker Rebate Act and other tariff-linked refund bills remain stalled in Congress, according to legislative tracking and policy updates, highlighting the gap between political rhetoric and actual legislative progress.
