The most famous and popular horse races in Britain and the US do not, at first glance, have a great deal in common. The Grand National is a four-and-a-quarter mile handicap steeplechase on turf, for instance, while the Kentucky Derby is a Grade One 10-furlong Flat race for three-year-olds on dirt, to highlight just a few of the many differences between the two.
But a fascinating column by Gary West for the US TVG network’s website a few days ago is a reminder that, like most of the truly historic sporting events, both the Kentucky Derby and the Grand National continue to change and evolve.
West argues – persuasively - that the introduction of a points system to qualify for the Run for the Roses has had a profound effect on how the race is run. The sprint-bred speedballs that once ensured a breakneck pace from the off, teeing it up for the closers, no longer make it into the starting gate. That, in turn, has made the 20-runner race one that punters can approach with a little more confidence. Six of the past nine Kentucky Derby favourites have won – the same number as in the previous 33.
Continuing evolution is normal and natural, even for storied events which date back to the 19th century. In fact, it is what helps to keep them compelling and relevant, from one generation to the next, and the Grand National is no different.
The most recent significant changes at Aintree arrived, like those at Louisville, around a decade ago, when the cores of the famous National fences were softened and there was a further levelling of the drop at Becher’s Brook. Aintree’s most famous obstacle had previously undergone significant alteration after two fatal falls in the 1989 Grand National, and when compared to the great race even 20 years ago, when Bindaree and Jim Culloty beat What’s Up Boys by just under two lengths, the 2022 Grand National this weekend will be a very different beast.
Like the Kentucky Derby in a few weeks’ time, the National will look much the same as it ever did, to the once-a-year punters at least. Forty runners are expected to go to post, there will be 30 fences to jump and the nine minutes’ or so of action will fly by in what seems more like 90 seconds.
When Bindaree won in 2002, though, there were also 40 runners, but just six were trained in Ireland. This year, Ireland is likely to field a majority of the field for the first time. Bindaree also won off an official rating of 136, over four-and-a-half miles. This year, a mark of around 145 will be required simply to get into the field, while the trip is now four miles, two-and-a-half furlongs.
Minella Times, last year’s Grand National winner, will attempt to become the first horse since Red Rum in 1974 to land the Grand National under top weight after the withdrawal of his stable companion, Chris’s Dream, left Rachael Blackmore’s mount at the head of the handicap for Saturday’s big race at Aintree.
The maximum weight for the Grand National is now 11st 10lb, rather than the 12 stone which Red Rum carried to the second of his record three wins in the race, while the lowest-weighted runner on Saturday is expected to carry around 10st 6lb. It would still represent a huge achievement, however, if Henry de Bromhead’s chaser could break a sequence that dates back nearly half a century.
Delta Work, a Grade One winner who edged out the dual National winner Tiger Roll in the Cross Country Chase at Cheltenham in March, will carry 1lb less than Minella Times on Saturday and is the narrow favourite to give Gordon Elliott a fourth Grand National victory after Monday’s declaration stage, with 7-1 the best price on offer with major firms.
Three withdrawals on Monday mean that Blaklion, who finished fourth in 2017 having set off as the 8-1 favourite, is guaranteed a run on Saturday, along with Diese Aba, originally 41st on the list, and Poker Party, another contender from the de Bromhead stable.
However, Emma Lavelle’s Eclair Surf, who is prominent in the ante-post betting at around 14-1, is 43rd on the list and needs three scratches further up the weights to get a run.
The going at Aintree is officially good-to-soft on all courses after 7.5mm of rain at the track on Sunday night. Some rain is forecast for much of the week but estimates of the possible quantity vary significantly, which could leave Sulekha Varma, the clerk of the course, with a tricky decision to make on whether to water the track to ensure that Saturday's ground is as safe as possible.
Two decades on from Bindaree’s National, our most famous race has improved steadily with age and, from this observer’s viewpoint at least, there is definitely something missing from the build-up as a result. It is the nagging sense of dread behind the excitement and anticipation, a feeling that grew from one year to the next in the early part of the century as scarcely a single Grand National unfolded without at least one runner sustaining a fatal injury.
One horse died in each of the runnings from 2006 to 2009, while there were two deaths in 2011 and two more, including Synchronised, the Gold Cup winner, in 2012. After the course was modified, there were no fatal injuries in the six years from 2013 to 2018, and while a horse has died in the past two runnings – 2020, of course, having been abandoned – neither was injured by a fall (The Long Mile broke down between fences while Up For Review, in 2019, was brought down at the first).
Catterick Bridge 1.00 Elzaal 1.30 Contactless 2.05 Arrange 2.40 Capuchinero 3.15 Vindobala (nap) 3.50 Mahanakhon Power 4.20 Darbucks
Nottingham 1.40 Barley 2.15 Illuminated 2.50 Pepper Streak 3.25 Mohi 4.00 Trueshan 4.30 Darkness 5.00 Bronze River
Lingfield Park 1.55 Botanist 2.25 Bang On The Bell 3.00 Independence Day 3.35 Barn Owl 4.10 Willow Cove 4.40 Monet's Sunrise 5.10 Cool Vixen
Kempton Park 4.55 Lady Clementine 5.30 Lir Speciale 6.00 Jungle Run 6.30 Gonzaga 7.00 Phantasy Mac 7.30 Rubbeldiekatz 8.00 Proclaimer (nb) 8.30 High Fibre
No horse race will ever be risk-free, and jumping obstacles will always bring additional risks. But the National – the one race all year that persuades the British public to sit up and take notice – is no longer an outlier, with an injury rate significantly higher than the rest of the National Hunt programme. It showcases the best of our sport and not the worst, and long may it continue to do so.
