The first point to remember when attempting to sift the Grand National winner from 40 possibilities is that it has never been about finding the best horse in the race. William Lynn, its founder, was an Aintree landlord who wanted to attract customers to his hotel, and created a steeplechase run over local fields and obstacles that guaranteed a decent payout for anyone who could find the winner.
Nearly two centuries after Lottery – the 5-1 favourite – became the first horse to win, the National is more competitive than ever and luck, good and bad, always has a huge hand in the outcome. Minella Times and Any Second Now plotted similar routes through last year’s race until the 12th, where a faller brought Any Second Now to a standstill. Had Double Shuffle fallen in front of Minella Times instead, we would still be waiting for a first National victory by a female jockey.
