A chilling fact could get lost in the heated news coverage about the killing of al Qaeda’s leader, Ayman al-Zawahiri: the firebrand cleric was only one of many threats lurking in Afghanistan and no one has much of a plan for dealing with the security concerns arising from this volatile country. The U.S. drone strike that killed Zawahiri in Kabul on July 31 has been hailed as a counterterrorism victory, but triumphalism would be a profound error. One of al Qaeda’s top strategic minds is now dead after living on the Taliban’s doorstep, and Western officials are still wondering how they can mitigate the many other ways that the Taliban regime may prove dangerous for the world.
Such concerns may seem exaggerated given how placid the situation in Afghanistan appears on the streets. Over the last several months, we led a research team from the International Crisis Group looking at the security implications of Taliban governance, speaking to people, including those in Taliban and anti-Taliban factions, in 13 of the country’s 34 provinces. Although the picture is complicated, most of the country is relatively calm. Taliban officials portray this lull in violence as a sign that their new regime has delivered the first period of peace in the country in decades, and that, despite Zawahiri’s presence in Kabul, the transnational militant threat has evaporated.
