LEXINGTON, Ky. — It lit a spark of curiosity among those following the crowded 2023 GOP gubernatorial primary for Kentucky governor, but the flicker of potential for a runoff rule in that race has all but blown out.
At least, that’s what lawmakers who hold significant sway over the state’s election laws say.
In a primary with seven Republican candidates running professional campaigns and even more announced, that means the winner is likely to take all. Some observers say that could brighten the outlook for longshot candidates, or increase the odds of controversial former Republican Gov. Matt Bevin running and winning the primary.
Elected officials indicated in the fall that the state legislature might be interested in instituting the runoff rule – a threshold of 40% that gubernatorial primary candidates had to clear to win straight-up in the primary to become the nominee, as had been the case in years’ past. It was the law of the land before the late ‘00s, after all.
But those talks haven’t gone anywhere, according to House Elections Committee Chair Kevin Bratcher, R-Louisville.
“We did not talk about it at the (House GOP caucus) retreat, and I’m the chairman of elections committee,” Bratcher said.
Much of the planning and prioritization for legislation prior to the legislative session, which begins on Jan. 2 this year, takes place at the GOP caucus retreats. The Republican Party currently has a stranglehold on policymaking in the Kentucky statehouse, owning 80-20 and 31-7 majorities in the House and Senate, respectively.
Bratcher mentioned that the legislature convenes on Jan. 3 and the filing deadline for 2023 candidates is Jan. 6, leaving little time to pass a bill that hasn’t really been debated before session.
“I think the calendar just makes it much too difficult for them,” said Al Cross, longtime Kentucky political journalist and director of the Institute for Rural Journalism and Community Issues. “You don’t want to go messing around with the calendar last-minute unless you just have to, like they did with redistricting (where the candidate filing deadline was pushed back).”
Nobody in the Senate has been working on a bill to that effect, either, according to Senate GOP Floor Leader Damon Thayer, R-Georgetown.
“I never like to say never before our sessions even started, but there’s nobody in my caucus who I’m aware of that’s working on that bill. I understand there’s a concern that we could nominate someone with a pretty small plurality, but that’s just going to be up to the winner to unite the party, and for the people who don’t win to be team players.”
GOP House Floor Leader Steven Rudy, R-Paducah, added that he hadn’t heard anyone in his caucus working to pass such a bill.
Matt Bevin?
So how does not having a runoff – an election that would pit the top two vote-getters if both garner less than 40% of the vote against each other in an extra election – affect the field?
For one, according to Northern Kentucky University political science professor Ryan Salzman, it could increase the odds that Bevin might win if he decides to run.
“Not having (a runoff) definitely benefits the candidates who hold positions more to the extreme, while runoffs favor a more moderate, establishment candidate. So if Matt Bevin were to get in, I think this benefits him.”
Cross emphasized that it’s unclear this early in the game who exactly would benefit from what change to the rules, but he agreed with Salzman that not having a runoff benefits Bevin. The former governor, he said, was “the only reason anybody was talking about having a runoff, because they’re scared he’d win with 25% of the vote.”
As for whether or not Bevin will make the leap and go for governor for a third time, at least one person in the race thinks it’s highly likely. Auditor Mike Harmon, who was the first contender to declare a bid for the governor’s office, said that he’s 90-to-95% sure that Bevin will enter the field. He previously handicapped the odds as “50/50.”
“Multiple times I’ve heard people say he’s polling,” Harmon said. “I can’t say for sure ‘oh, yes, he’s getting in.’ But I’ve had some conversations with different people it’s my belief he’s going to.”
No runoff could benefit a candidate with more regional appeal , Salzman added, like Rep. Savannah Maddox, R-Dry Ridge, in Northern Kentucky or Somerset Mayor Alan Keck in South-Central and Eastern Kentucky. Those candidates’ winning strategies could potentially not need to extend too far beyond their backyards if the crowded field splits the vote enough such that the winning percentage is in the 20s.
The runoff might have benefitted former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations Kelly Craft due to her vast personal wealth – she’s married to coal magnate and philanthropist billionaire Joe Craft – or Ryan Quarles due to his potential position as many folks’ second choice, Cross said.
Cross also guessed that not having a runoff might benefit Attorney General Daniel Cameron, who has high name recognition, but also could have a ‘ceiling’ of support due to negative name ID related to his office’s investigation of police actions in the killing of Breonna Taylor.
But the rules, at least for now, appear to be set in stone. It’ll be winner take all come May, and the winner will likely get to face Gov. Andy Beshear, who is already building a massive campaign warchest and, according to some polls, is the most popular Democratic governor in the country.
“They all got into this knowing the rules of the game. Unless you were the first in, you pretty much made this decision knowing that it was going to require only something like 30% – and that might even be high for this race,” Salzman said.
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