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The Arizona economy by many measures is flourishing, but it doesn't feel that way for a lot of voters in the presidential battleground state as they consider their choices on Nov. 5.
Voters are hearing Democrats and Republicans promise to help the middle class if they win. But voters have heard that before and, in the view of many, nothing got better.
That disconnect is vivid in Arizona, where housing and other costs have spiked.
Here are some key takeaways from Associated Press interviews with voters and economic experts in Arizona about the economy and how Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump are talking about it before Election Day:
The job market is booming, but home prices are soaring
Maricopa County, which includes Phoenix, Mesa, and Chandler, is booming.
The desert cities have been fueled by Americans flocking for the area's eternal sunshine and desert beauty. It doesn't hurt to have a strong job market bolstered by big tech companies such as TSMC and Google that have broadened their footprint in the Phoenix area.
In fact, of the biggest counties nationwide, Maricopa posted the largest percentage job gains so far this year, according to the Labor Department.
While jobs are plentiful, housing has gotten pricier. Maricopa's home prices have nearly doubled since 2016, Zillow says.
“Many voters see home prices and 30-year mortgage rates and compare that to the experience of their parents and grandparents and say ‘I’m never going to own a home,’” said Glenn Farley, director of policy and research at the nonprofit Common Sense Institute Arizona. “Until those things are brought back under control, voters are going to continue to be sour.”
Many doubt Harris and Trump feel their pain
Arizona voters across the political spectrum expressed frustration that they aren't hearing enough about how Harris and Trump plan to address housing costs and rising prices for groceries and other essentials.
Harris has pledged $25,000 for first-time homebuyers and tax breaks for new parents, while the Trump campaign says mass deportations of migrants living in the U.S. without permanent legal permission will free up housing and higher tariffs will create job opportunities.
But it's hard for the voters to shake the pain caused by post-pandemic inflation, which has receded. Some say they are hearing too much from Trump on social issues, while Harris is dwelling too much on some of the former president's provocative comments.
“When it comes to helping the citizen, helping a guy that’s got to go to work every day to provide for their family, I’m not hearing too much about it,” said Abel Ramirez, 32, an Apache Junction resident who is struggling to buy a single-family home for his growing family.
Ramirez voted for Trump in 2020 but is considering sitting out this election.
Arizonans, like many Americans, have a complicated view of the economy
Plenty of Americans can look at their personal finances and see reasons for comfort, even if they mostly register despair when asked about the health of the country as a whole. Nearly 6 in 10 described their own economic situation as good, even as 7 in 10 said the nation was on the wrong track, according to a September poll by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs.
John Akers, 34, is one of those who feels lucky with how the economy has treated him, but worries that too many of his family and friends are being left behind.
He and his wife have seen their fortunes improve over the past several years as their high-end audio-visual business has thrived, and the fixer-upper they bought in 2015 in Phoenix has proven to be a wise investment.
At the same time, some of their aging relatives have struggled with rising costs, and a few of their close friends are thinking about ditching Arizona to find cheaper housing. It’s left him wondering if Washington is too focused on hot-button cultural issues.
“No matter what, we’re going to have polarization at the end of this election,” said Akers, who plans to vote for Trump. “The political conversation is too often pitting the middle class against each other, and there’s been too little focus on the issues that matter, like inflation and housing costs.”
No easy answer for solving the voter malaise
Maricopa County is an exemplar of the boom that has driven American prosperity over the past two presidencies, powering through the Great Recession’s housing bust and pandemic-era shutdowns. But that boom also destabilized people’s confidence in the real estate market, which helped drive the growth.
More people moved into the area rather than its cities and at rates that exceeded housing supply, pushing prices up in ways that made mortgage rates of 6%-plus troubling. Homeowners felt they could not afford to sell and buy a new property, while renters felt that the promise of middle-class stability was increasingly out of reach.
Take Trevor Cowling. He and his wife bought their 1,500-square-foot home for $225,000, locking in at a 3.1% interest rate on a 30-year mortgage rate.
The Cowlings had one child when they moved in and added twins to the family earlier this year.
The Cowlings would love to trade up to a bigger home, but it's unlikely to happen in the foreseeable future with interest rates still hovering above 6%.
Cowling, 28, said if he tried to buy his home today the monthly mortgage it “would cost more than even what I am making.”
